burgertime Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 At 162 our system looks to be heading for South America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yuck... major supression this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 GFS out to HR 144 looks like it is still supression city but good news is the cold air looks for real! I don't want to see a major bump north this far out yet anyway. There is still a storm which is important. Yep can't get the snow with out the cold....but these maps are giving nightmares of last year when we had the major cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 GFS out to HR 144 looks like it is still supression city but good news is the cold air looks for real! I don't want to see a major bump north this far out yet anyway. There is still a storm which is important. Good point...north trend can come a day before the storm, I don't care when it does...I just don't want our system to go to Cuba. 12z looks even more suppressed then 06z...Glad the cold is still here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Bet this run gives us our dream storm on Sunday. FWIW GFS has some major cold in the area next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Bet this run gives us our dream storm on Sunday. FWIW GFS has some major cold in the area next week. Just noticing that.... the cold looks like it means business middle of next week which is what is pushing our storm so far south. I almost willing to bet as we get closer the cold will not be an impressive which will also allow the storm to kick further north over time. What I want to see from the GFS this far out is #1 cold air in the area #2 a storm south of us #3 blocking. All is there which is good to me. The storm doesn't look as impressive this run because it is so far south it doesn't phase but like I said I think the cold is being overdone and will start to relax as we get closer. If that happens I believe the storm will start showing up further north. That is assuming we have a storm and that doesn't go poop at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Bet this run gives us our dream storm on Sunday. FWIW GFS has some major cold in the area next week. Awesome temps for NC, E TN, N SC... I'd be happy if they went N just a tad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 If I'm reading it correctly the GFS taking verbatim doesn't get a lot of NC out of the thirties for highs next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yep can't get the snow with out the cold....but these maps are giving nightmares of last year when we had the major cold in. Well remember the "big dog" last year started with a track across Cuba before trending north. It may not be all bad but I know what you mean overall. We will likely be screwing the pooch here if this holds . As for the 12/5 time frame it essentially looks like crap verbatim unless you live in West Virgina and the VA mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well remember the "big dog" last year started with a track across Cuba before trending north. It may not be all bad but I know what you mean overall. We will likely be screwing the pooch here if this holds . As for the 12/5 time frame it essentially looks like crap verbatim unless you live in West Virgina and the VA mountains. Very true eyewall.... several of our storms like winter were shown going to Cuba a week or so out. Once we got within a couple of days the storm came back and we started holding our breath and hoping it doesn't go too far north. This far out we just want to have a storm showng up south of us with the cold air in place. Things will even out over time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The storm this weekend is going to have to get out of the way first and get locked up in SE Canada before the models have a handle on the second one, period. Even with the PV around the Bay of Fundy early next week, exact placement and to what extent pieces of energy will have on its strength leave a lot to question. Furthermore, given the wave in question for next week is still out in the middle of the Pac, the models are almost clueless right now, except for satellite data, as to what exactly will show up on the California coast Monday and be sampled. Hell, the vort packet associated with the Sat-Sun potential won't be onshore the Pac NW for another 24-36 hours, hence most of the players we are looking at are not even being sampled yet by the RAOB network, and it all starts with the weekend storm. Look for perturbations to continue through the weekend, into early next week, and take note of trends as well as the general consensus via the scenario(s) with the best continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Whats the general rule when forecasting highs/lows and looking at 850mb temps? Is it take the temp at Celsius, add 9 degrees, then convert to Fahrenheit? Read that somewhere, just checking if that's correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The storm this weekend is going to have to get out of the way first and get locked up in SE Canada before the models have a handle on the second one, period. Even with the PV around the Bay of Fundy early next week, exact placement and to what extent pieces of energy will have on its strength leave a lot to question. Furthermore, given the wave in question for next week is still out in the middle of the Pac, the models are almost clueless right now, except for satellite data, as to what exactly will show up on the California coast Monday and be sampled. Hell, the vort packet associated with the Sat-Sun potential won't be onshore the Pac NW for another 24-36 hours, hence most of the players we are looking at are not even being sampled yet by the RAOB network, and it all starts with the weekend storm. Look for perturbations to continue through the weekend, into early next week, and take note of trends as well as the general consensus via the scenario(s) with the best continuity. Well said! It is almost a carbon copy conversation going on right now as to what people were saying last winter. Weather models are crap until more players start to be sampled. People forget too easily what we all learned last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Whats the general rule when forecasting highs/lows and looking at 850mb temps? Is it take the temp at Celsius, add 9 degrees, then convert to Fahrenheit? Read that somewhere, just checking if that's correct... You want to take into account 2m temps I believe. That's going to give you a better estimate of SFC temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The storm this weekend is going to have to get out of the way first and get locked up in SE Canada before the models have a handle on the second one, period. Even with the PV around the Bay of Fundy early next week, exact placement and to what extent pieces of energy will have on its strength leave a lot to question. Furthermore, given the wave in question for next week is still out in the middle of the Pac, the models are almost clueless right now, except for satellite data, as to what exactly will show up on the California coast Monday and be sampled. Hell, the vort packet associated with the Sat-Sun potential won't be onshore the Pac NW for another 24-36 hours, hence most of the players we are looking at are not even being sampled yet by the RAOB network, and it all starts with the weekend storm. Look for perturbations to continue through the weekend, into early next week, and take note of trends as well as the general consensus via the scenario(s) with the best continuity. Very well said! You are aboslutely right about all of this. Alot could change once the wave arrives on the west coast and is sampled in the RAOB network etc. I am wondering if they will be sending aircraft like last year for winter wx forecasting research when a potential threat arises. This current storm was of course important in establishing the start of the pattern shift along with the intial height field we will have to work with. Alot more has to play out before we have any firm handle on all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Very well said! You are aboslutely right about all of this. Alot could change once the wave arrives on the west coast and is sampled in the RAOB network etc. I am wondering if they will be sending aircraft like last year for winter wx forecasting research when a potential threat arises. This current storm was of course important in establishing the start of the pattern shift along with the intial height field we will have to work with. Alot more has to play out before we have any firm handle on all of this. That is a good question. If I remember correctly they announced it pretty early in the season last year that they would be flying planes into the storms so maybe we will hear something soon if they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Very well said! You are aboslutely right about all of this. Alot could change once the wave arrives on the west coast and is sampled in the RAOB network etc. I am wondering if they will be sending aircraft like last year for winter wx forecasting research when a potential threat arises. This current storm was of course important in establishing the start of the pattern shift along with the intial height field we will have to work with. Alot more has to play out before we have any firm handle on all of this. Exactly, I am searching for just a simple grasp at this point on the Sat-Sun piece and can not even find a grip. Looking a ens spread, solutions are all over the place, yielding a we have no idea hypothesis. And even more intriguing is that we are about 4 days out, heck, I was waxing the sled last year a couple times in this timeframe. Best case plausible scenario for NE NC and SE VA this weekend would be for the H5 energy to weaken by partially shearing out over the OH Valley and not close off at 850 over WV. That would minimize the WAA and decrease QPF, but most of the folks in that area would take a slushy 1-2" over a front end dump with winds out of the SW in the mid-levels. Of note, the GFS has increased QPF totals over NE NC during the last 3 runs from nothing, to 0.05, and now it paints a 0.10" strip. Thickness data suggests indeterminate, or measurable SN with RN. Granted, these are meager QPF amounts and borderline profiles, at-least on the global, but just something to keep an eye on given the inconsistency even in the mid-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Latest Euro run will spark some interest for this weekend for folks in the northern sections of NC...the Tue/Wed storm doesn't exist on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Latest Euro run will spark some interest for this weekend for folks in the northern sections of NC...the Tue/Wed storm doesn't exist on it. From Midlo in the MA regional, not sure his source though as he only quotes the info... hr 84 broad area of 1012 low pressure, looks like the low is over central nc...precip in ohio valley and ky,nc,va, lgt to mod in eastern ky and sw va hr 90 broad area of 1008 pressure, low looks to be centered over hatteras, lgt precip va to central ohio south, lgt to mo precip in shenandoah valley. sub 1000 mb low about 150 miles east of hatteras.lgt precip va nc wva, some lgt to mode on outer banks Seems to be some traction to this idea from the 12z runs, and a general flavor from the big 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What a great view... http://www.fs.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsinternet/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gDfxMDT8MwRydLA1cj72DTUE8TAwgAykeaxRtBeY4WBv4eHmF-YT4GMHn8usNB9uHXDzYBB3A00PfzyM9N1S_IjTDIMnFUBADW0rdA/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfME80MEkxVkFCOTBFMktTNVVJNDAwMDAwMDA!/?navtype=BROWSEBYSUBJECT&cid=fsm9_029107&navid=091000000000000&pnavid=null&ss=110803&position=Not%20Yet%20Determined.Html&ttype=detailfull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You won't get jack **** in this part of the state from a clipper like that. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 sometimes eastern NC can do quite well from a redeveloping system off the coast like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You won't get jack **** in this part of the state from a clipper like that. Yay. I was going to say something similar. Reminds me a little of last year's fizzled flizzard when we saw a meso low form and warm us to the upper 40's at the surface. Needless to say that ended up almost all rain from what little did fall. Even if that didn't happen surface low is too far north pushing mid-level support well into VA/ WVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 anyone have a total qpf for PGV for Sunday? and how close is the 0c line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 From Midlo in the MA regional, not sure his source though as he only quotes the info... Seems to be some traction to this idea from the 12z runs, and a general flavor from the big 3 Maybe we'll get something out of this. I was concentrating on the mid-week storm next week that I have not really paid much attention to the first storm this weekend. Could it be that the models don't have a good grasp on the mid-week event because of this first system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I was going to say something similar. Reminds me a little of last year's fizzled flizzard when we saw a meso low form and warm us to the upper 40's at the surface. Needless to say that ended up almost all rain from what little did fall. Even if that didn't happen surface low is too far north pushing mid-level support well into VA/ WVA. I just can't see anywhere west of 95 doing well with a system redeveloping off the coast. Besides, I can't depend on a clipper unless it dives way far south and west. If a clipper gives Nashville snow then we're normally a decent bet to see it here too, otherwise I don't pay any mind to it. We almost always get shadowed here by clippers coming in from the direction of the weekend clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 And furthermore, I would hazard to guess in the next 10 days that our best shot at snow in the Western Piedmont is upslope breaking containment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 And we know how hard that is. And furthermore, I would hazard to guess in the next 10 days that our best shot at snow in the Western Piedmont is upslope breaking containment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Could it be that the models don't have a good grasp on the mid-week event because of this first system? Go back through this page and read the posts, then ask the question again if you still do not know the answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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