December 2010

[Solak]

.37" here overnight. Like RevDodd, lots of pine needles still falling.

[Nomad]

Snowing lightly in west Knoxville. Enough that the cars are half white. Great way to start December.

[burgertime]

Snowing lightly in west Knoxville. Enough that the cars are half white. Great way to start December.

Awesome...hopefully some of that mojo can move over here next week!

[EmersonGA]

2.10" storm total. The wind blew so hard through my garage door that my kitchen door was wide open this morning. Crazy.

[WeatherNC]

Good wind here this morning, gusting at or near 30 at times. Have not checked the gauge yet, but likely to be under 0.5" based on radar estimates. Potential early season dusting, or at-least a mixed small bag of crap, for northern NC Sat into Sun. GFS has been trending in that direction over the past 4 runs, and the HPC seems to be "intrigued."

Prelim this am

THERE REMAIN TWO SYSTEMS WITH WHICH THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE

DISAGREEMENT AND LARGE DAY-TO-DAY AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY

CHANGES. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH

THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS BACK ON BOARD

WITH ITS CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH VIRGINIA...THOUGH

IT IS WEAKER THAN SEEN ON OCCASIONAL RUNS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE LEADING TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SHEARING

OUT THROUGH THE REGION...NOT CLOSING OFF. A 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN

SOLUTION SHOULD WORK OUT BEST HERE. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH

THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH ITS LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

Final from yesterday

WITH THE STRONG VORTEX SETTING UP ACRS THE NE U.S...AGREEMENT IS

FAIRLY STRONG THAT THE UPR LOW WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...THE

INDIVIDUAL SHORTWVS COMPRISING ITS EVENTUAL POSITION AND STRENGTH

ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. WHILE THE GFS WAS

INITIALLY REJECTED BASED ON ITS ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST PAC...IT IS

WORTH NOTING ITS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT UPR SYSTEM ACRS THE NE U.S.

ON SUN EVENING WHILE ALL OTHER GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THIS FEATURE. IT

DOES EVENTUALLY GET TO A SIMILAR RESULT AS OTHER MODELS LATER IN

THE PERIOD...BUT IT IS DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPR LOW TRACKING ACRS

THE UPR MIDWEST ON D5.5 WHICH IS NOT SEEN IN ANY OTHER MODEL. ONE

INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY

WEAKENED THE SHORTWV CROSSING INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLC LATE

SAT/EARLY SUN. THIS HAS DRAWN SOME INTRIGUE AS IT MAY BRING LATE

AUTUMN SNOWFALL TO THOSE RGNS.

0z EC verbatim would likely put down some frozen QPF in the northern half of NC. Looks like a Miller B, as the energy over the southern apps transfers to the coastal developing se of ILM. This solution does have support from the, 0z CMC, it ens mean, 6z GFS ens mean and to a lesser extent the 0z mean. 850's are borderline and 500mb heights do not crash till after the system starts to bomb offshore. Don't have access to in between or QPF panels, maybe burger can hook up us later.

Not sure about areas to my west, but don't think 850's in the -1 to -2 range will cut it this time of year. Although thickness data from the 6z GFS is right on the line between SN and Indeterminate at 96 hrs here in Pitt County.

[WeatherNC]

From Midlo in the Richmond Hampton Rds thread on the 0z ECMWF

"there's a strip of 0.25-0.50" amounts across North Carolina to North Central Virgina. DC probably gets less than 0.10". The phase is literally a frame or two late. The storm then hooks and retrogrades into the Gulf of Maine."

[burgertime]

From Midlo in the Richmond Hampton Rds thread on the 0z ECMWF

"there's a strip of 0.25-0.50" amounts across North Carolina to North Central Virgina. DC probably gets less than 0.10". The phase is literally a frame or two late. The storm then hooks and retrogrades into the Gulf of Maine."

On the 00z all the qpf is light and the 850s are borderline. Of course it's close for northern NC but not quite there yet.

[Brick Tamland]

So it looks like we might actually have potential for two storms? One Sat-Sun night and one the middle of next week?

[Jon]

So it looks like we might actually have potential for two storms? One Sat-Sun night and one the middle of next week?

Not trying to be mean, but do you know how to look at and analyze models somewhat? Even just looking for cold (0c line, -10 line) and precip maps? L press/H press? 850mb temps?

You don't have to ask every time if you can look at simple runs. I don't know the complicated stuff, but normally one can determine if there's a threat off of a few runs of the gfs, euro, canadian.

Do like I do. If you don't have anything substantial to add to the tread, just wait...a met will post runs and obs for you eventually.

[Local Yokel Wx]

Snow Chase Report... Left at 7am this morning to the Pkwy and of course they were closing it. So headed over to Cat Ski Resort and found a flizzard going down with a solid dusting and a quarter of an inch is the deepest I could find. Temps were in the mid 20's. Left the mtn and went on to work and to my surprise I found more snow on the ground in Clyde, NC than Cat. They had a solid dusting with one bank nearing a half inch.

Rainforrest, How did you do with the storm total?

Also, anyone having problems posting pics? I have a snow pic to share but my uploader is reading an error.

[Brick Tamland]

Not trying to be mean, but do you know how to look at and analyze models somewhat? Even just looking for cold (0c line, -10 line) and precip maps? L press/H press? 850mb temps?

You don't have to ask every time if you can look at simple runs. I don't know the complicated stuff, but normally one can determine if there's a threat off of a few runs of the gfs, euro, canadian.

Do like I do. If you don't have anything substantial to add to the tread, just wait...a met will post runs and obs for you eventually.

A little bit. I was just trying to figure out what I miss.

[Local Yokel Wx]

My facebook page if you want to check out the pics from todays snow chase. One is of Cat at the top of the road and the other is the road leading to Cat. Sorry but not able to post pics atm. Snow Pics

[eyewall]

Already down into the upper 40's here

[POWERSTROKE]

Not trying to be mean, but do you know how to look at and analyze models somewhat? Even just looking for cold (0c line, -10 line) and precip maps? L press/H press? 850mb temps?

You don't have to ask every time if you can look at simple runs. I don't know the complicated stuff, but normally one can determine if there's a threat off of a few runs of the gfs, euro, canadian.

Do like I do. If you don't have anything substantial to add to the tread, just wait...a met will post runs and obs for you eventually.

you just don't know brick. He is ok but you havent seen nothing yet He almost won top weenie award last year!

[Local Yokel Wx]

Man sometimes I miss being up there. Charlies Beech Cam via highcountrywebcams.com

Web Cam

[WeatherNC]

On the 00z all the qpf is light and the 850s are borderline. Of course it's close for northern NC but not quite there yet.

Thanks, I just looked at the 850 winds on the EC and the 850 low track is through VA, which is not going to cut it, and similar to what the NAM would likely show if you extrapolated past 84... Would need a sig south trend at this point to get on the north side of that track to have much of a chance at seeing frozen stuff.

[burgertime]

Not trying to be mean, but do you know how to look at and analyze models somewhat? Even just looking for cold (0c line, -10 line) and precip maps? L press/H press? 850mb temps?

You don't have to ask every time if you can look at simple runs. I don't know the complicated stuff, but normally one can determine if there's a threat off of a few runs of the gfs, euro, canadian.

Do like I do. If you don't have anything substantial to add to the tread, just wait...a met will post runs and obs for you eventually.

Don't waste your breath there is a better chance of NC State winning the national championship then of Brick even vaguely understanding a weather map.

Also I would say if you can understand the Canadian then your doing pretty good...I need my stuff painted out for me all in on place. CMC would always give me fits!

[Amos83]

Don't waste your breath there is a better chance of NC State winning the national championship then of Brick even vaguely understanding a weather map.

Also I would say if you can understand the Canadian then your doing pretty good...I need my stuff painted out for me all in on place. CMC would always give me fits!

Sooooo you are saying there's a chance?

[Blue Ridge]

you just don't know brick. He is ok but you havent seen nothing yet He almost won top weenie award last year!

Don't encourage it.

Awoke to a dusting this morning, and it continues to snow/sleet on and off, heavy at times.

[Jon]

Don't waste your breath there is a better chance of NC State winning the national championship then of Brick even vaguely understanding a weather map.

Also I would say if you can understand the Canadian then your doing pretty good...I need my stuff painted out for me all in on place. CMC would always give me fits!

Point taken...Oh snap, NC State is my school...I'm here now, actually. But you're right, it's been a few decades...all I'm happy about is UNC won't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning one any time soon. Loved thr "Overrated" chants by Illinois fans last night.

Anyhow, back on topic: Probably should have left the CMC out, understand is an overstatement...6hr precip w/ 850mb temps is all I get out of the CMC, I have to let the mets on here do the rest...I'm a newbie as well but I am proud to say when I joined eastern last year I knew absolutely nothing and now at least I have a general understanding to add something every once in a while.

[Lookout]

you just don't know brick. He is ok but you havent seen nothing yet He almost won top weenie award last year!

Um, and he won't see it. Not going to put up with the rabid weenism here. So he needs to think strongly before he posts and the same goes to others who might think it's funny.

[burgertime]

Sooooo you are saying there's a chance?

Point taken...Oh snap, NC State is my school...I'm here now, actually. But you're right, it's been a few decades...all I'm happy about is UNC won't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning one any time soon. Loved thr "Overrated" chants by Illinois fans last night.

Anyhow, back on topic: Probably should have left the CMC out, understand is an overstatement...6hr precip w/ 850mb temps is all I get out of the CMC, I have to let the mets on here do the rest...I'm a newbie as well but I am proud to say when I joined eastern last year I knew absolutely nothing and now at least I have a general understanding to add something every once in a while.

Ha well in fairness to my zinger I did mean to put the national championship in football this year.

Yea CMC is tough. Even having access to most of the maps I still get a little confused about thickness and that sort of stuff..hell I just barely understand short waves! Like you said though just hanging around here you learn tons and tons of stuff.

Also it should be interesting to see what the 12z GFS and Euro have lined up. I have that sneaking feeling our really cold air may go *POOF*.

[Lookout]

A little bit. I was just trying to figure out what I miss.

You can read brick. There is no need in asking unnecessary questions.

It's always annoying that some people feel the need to ask questions that have already been answered or that any reasonably intelligent person can figure out the answer too simply by reading what has already been posted.

[CAD Addict]

Have a good dusting on everything. Currently 26 with fierce winds....love it!

[Lee]

After a storm total 2.57" of Rain, light snow began falling before dawn. Only a dusting has mounted up at my location here in the Valley . I suspect the typical elevated areas will get a general 1-2 inches today before ending. Current Temp.: 30.2

Here's a Cam link from Wise:

http://www.mcs.uvawise.edu/webcam/

[burgertime]

Here comes the GFS. Hopefully it has some good news for us for next week. So far up to 120 the cold air is here

[lilj4425]

Our storm appears further north this run so far. North trend commence.

[burgertime]

Unless something major happens it looks like this run is garbage. Not any sort of phase and the cold air looks to be suppressing the storm. No one looks to get in on the action this run.

[lilj4425]

Unless something major happens it looks like this run is garbage. Not any sort of phase and the cold air looks to be suppressing the storm. No one looks to get in on the action this run.

Yep. A lot less qpf this run at hr138 compared to hr144 of last run.

[Amos83]

Unless something major happens it looks like this run is garbage. Not any sort of phase and the cold air looks to be suppressing the storm. No one looks to get in on the action this run.

GFS out to HR 144 looks like it is still supression city but good news is the cold air looks for real! I don't want to see a major bump north this far out yet anyway. There is still a storm which is important.