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December 2010


HWY316wx

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36 right now, under the Peach with lots o'clouds. Brrrrrr!!! We did lose a water line yesterday. :( Living so far off the main road, we have a pick-up about halfway and somehow (God's Critters strike again) the insulation came off. It was repaired and was minor. It's been so cold for so long though. Those buried lines have never frozen before and from what I'm reading here...I'm a little concerned about them. :(

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36 right now, under the Peach with lots o'clouds. Brrrrrr!!! We did lose a water line yesterday. :( Living so far off the main road, we have a pick-up about halfway and somehow (God's Critters strike again) the insulation came off. It was repaired and was minor. It's been so cold for so long though. Those buried lines have never frozen before and from what I'm reading here...I'm a little concerned about them. :(

I'm surprised to hear about so many people having issues with pipes, etc. over the last few days. It's cold, sure, but nothing extreme. I guess the first good cold shot of every winter will cause issues for some.

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Yeah you might be right about a band of precip setting up somewhere in GA. Good to see some folks way down south seeing some snow. 35 with a dewpoint of 11...those flakes are going to have to fight a hell of a battle up here :weight_lift:

33 with a dp of 12 here. Yeah it's going to take good returns for a while for it to be able to make to the surface anywhere. But those who are lucky enough to sit under that one band should see a few flurries. It obviously looks like between atlanta/macon is the "sweet spot". It won't get further north than atlanta to athens so my local probably is going to just miss it.

I don't know if it's funny or sad to be tracking the chance of a few flurries lol

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I'm surprised to hear about so many people having issues with pipes, etc. over the last few days. It's cold, sure, but nothing extreme. I guess the first good cold shot of every winter will cause issues for some.

Not getting out of the 30's for a couple of days in early December...is extreme to this southern girl. The lines/insulation were a casualty of Critters gone wild...er than normal. :)

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The longer range is interesting. The Euro Op is unexciting, but the ensembles are pretty cold through the longer range with mean 500mb heights staying below average trough 384 hours, and given the extreme Greenland block forecast that seems to be a distinct possibility. The GFS has an interesting event in the 7-8 day time frame:

post-357-0-04996300-1291842224.png

Of course this is a long way out, but if the block stays strong and we can get a Pacific system to move across in the right fashion then some may see freezing/frozen precip before this pattern is done. Not a lock by any means, but we have to keep an eye on things.

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The longer range is interesting. The Euro Op is unexciting, but the ensembles are pretty cold through the longer range with mean 500mb heights staying below average trough 384 hours, and given the extreme Greenland block forecast that seems to be a distinct possibility. The GFS has an interesting event in the 7-8 day time frame:

post-357-0-04996300-1291842224.png

Of course this is a long way out, but if the block stays strong and we can get a Pacific system to move across in the right fashion then some may see freezing/frozen precip before this pattern is done. Not a lock by any means, but we have to keep an eye on things.

Are you talking about the system progged for next Thursday? Looked like it could be a shot of ZR.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC

341 PM EST WED DEC 8 2010

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-090100-

JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-

INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-

INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-

ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-

INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-

TIDAL BERKELEY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...METTER...

STATESBORO...SPRINGFIELD...REIDSVILLE...CLAXTON...PEMBROKE...

FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...

HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN...ALLENDALE...

HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...

RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...

JASPER...DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON

341 PM EST WED DEC 8 2010

...FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH

THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL

TRAVERSE THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE

LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER DRY. THERE

HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA

THIS AFTERNOON AND WE COULD SEE SIMILAR WEATHER MOVE ACROSS THE

COASTAL EMPIRE AND LOWCOUNTRY THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...

MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALLENDALE TO WALTERBORO TO CHARLESTON.

WITH AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S

AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE

ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS.

HOWEVER...ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY

BECOME SLICK DURING ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.

:weight_lift:

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The longer range is interesting. The Euro Op is unexciting, but the ensembles are pretty cold through the longer range with mean 500mb heights staying below average trough 384 hours, and given the extreme Greenland block forecast that seems to be a distinct possibility. The GFS has an interesting event in the 7-8 day time frame:

post-357-0-04996300-1291842224.png

Of course this is a long way out, but if the block stays strong and we can get a Pacific system to move across in the right fashion then some may see freezing/frozen precip before this pattern is done. Not a lock by any means, but we have to keep an eye on things.

Based on what you see, how do you see the rest of the month playing out temp wise? I don't follow or pay much attention to long range/winter forecasts very much but weren't many calling for a super warm december here? I know we will eventually moderate but it would take a big heat wave at the end of the month for some folks forecasts to verify after this cold pattern. (assuming of course I am remembering this right..if not my apologies)

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From the Experiment Station...

Temperature 32.3 °F I'm up at 34 here at my house.

Relative Humidity 40.2 %

Dew Point Temperature 10.8 °F

Wet Bulb Temperature 27.4 °F

Atmospheric Pressure 30.15 in

I tried to frolic barefoot in the virga, but it wasn't very pleasing. Maybe next time. It's Dec. Years of pain have taught me not to expect much. T

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Hahah I wonder if I am going to end up surrounded by people who had measurable snow first like last year. I hope it works out for those in SC. The clouds are a tease here.

nothing yet here either. It does look like theres a void from my area to your areas and south into the northern half of SC. I think most others have or will have seen some flakes atleast.

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Based on what you see, how do you see the rest of the month playing out temp wise? I don't follow or pay much attention to long range/winter forecasts very much but weren't many calling for a super warm december here? I know we will eventually moderate but it would take a big heat wave at the end of the month for some folks forecasts to verify after this cold pattern. (assuming of course I am remembering this right..if not my apologies)

Not really a long-range person, but based on what I see this -NAO pattern should last another two weeks or so and as long as that is the case a torch is pretty unlikely, we will probably be lucky to have more than a couple of days near average, much less well above. So December is likely to be below for the month. Then at some point the pacific/Nina influence will probably reassert itself but will the -NAO keep reloading? I have no idea on that- folks like HM and Usedtobe are much better with the AAM/MJO type stuff than I am.

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Good luck to those to my south and east :snowman:

CAE

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --CURRENT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL

ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON IS TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK

THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING. THIS HAS MADE THIS

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING THAT WHAT

WAS BEING SHOWN A FEW DAYS AGO. AREA RADARS SHOWING PRECIP MOVING

ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT

SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AL EVEN BEING REPORTED EARLIER. THIS

WOULD COINSIDE WITH THE BEST BRIGHT BANDING THAT HAD SHOWN UP ON

RADARS. THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS IT HAS MOVED EASTWARD.

ACROSS OUR REGION...VERY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE WITH SURFACE

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. WILL TAKE A LOT TO

MOISTEN AIRMASS UP. BELIEVE ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM MID LEVEL

CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE OVER MOST AREAS.

BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES MAY BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN

COUNTIES. WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME THOUGH AS

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ANOTHER COLD

NIGHT ON TAP. ALTHOUGH WE COULD GET CLOSE...WE SHOULD NOT BREAK

ANY RECORDS TONIGHT. FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S MOST

AREAS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Not really a long-range person, but based on what I see this -NAO pattern should last another two weeks or so and as long as that is the case a torch is pretty unlikely, we will probably be lucky to have more than a couple of days near average, much less well above. So December is likely to be below for the month. Then at some point the pacific/Nina influence will probably reassert itself but will the -NAO keep reloading? I have no idea on that- folks like HM and Usedtobe are much better with the AAM/MJO type stuff than I am.

thats exactly how I feel about it too. On the NAO, its been reloading for a year, but we just don't see the results in the Southeast until the cold season usually, and at times its east based, others west based. The upcoming period looks west based and building west to central Canada to some degree. If that happens, we should have our first wintry precip threat widespread at some point. Of course theres hints now for late next week. In 2003 or 04, this type of pattern occurred (blocking) and once it was established couple with 50/50, I think every southern event was colder than progged. Not saying that will happen again, but I think this pattern could be similar to that period...before the whole pattern totally collapses to west trough/east ridge and pos NAO.

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nothing yet here either. It does look like theres a void from my area to your areas and south into the northern half of SC. I think most others have or will have seen some flakes atleast.

Well we did have front end snow in the clipper IMBY but yeah any precip with this is well south of my area. I do hope they see something down there being how rare it is.

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