December 2010

[griteater]

Hit 32 at the airport here today. Just looking back at the Op. GFS from 4 days ago, it looks like it nailed the 32 line in NC. If I recall the Euro was a little warmer on its 2m temps, valid yesterday and today on the Max temps. The GFS also nailed the 2m temps in both big outbreaks last year for NC. Most of the media outlets in CLT market had highs 40 and above for the CLT region yesterday and today.

I thought the GFS did well last year with surface temperatures during the winter storms.

[BullCityWx]

Date: 6 day AVN valid 18Z MON 13 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000    67                                                                 
SFC  976   254  -5.3 -17.2  39 11.9  -8.1 315  19 269.7 269.9 266.4 272.6  1.02
 2  950   467  -9.0 -18.7  45  9.7 -11.1 316  27 268.0 268.2 265.1 270.6  0.92
 3  900   882 -13.1 -19.5  59  6.4 -14.4 317  32 268.0 268.1 265.0 270.5  0.91
 4  850  1314 -17.2 -20.1  78  2.9 -17.7 319  36 268.1 268.3 265.1 270.7  0.91
 5  800  1765 -20.8 -22.6  85  1.8 -21.1 324  42 269.0 269.1 265.5 271.2  0.78
 6  750  2242 -19.9 -35.6  23 15.7 -21.6 336  40 275.0 275.0 268.5 275.7  0.24
 7  700  2752 -21.4 -43.7  11 22.3 -23.3 330  27 278.8 278.8 270.7 279.2  0.11
 8  650  3295 -24.5 -44.0  15 19.4 -26.1 312  20 281.2 281.2 272.1 281.6  0.12
 9  600  3873 -28.2 -49.1  12 20.9 -29.5 283  21 283.4 283.4 273.3 283.7  0.07
10  550  4493 -31.0 -55.0   8 24.0 -32.1 275  30 287.3 287.3 275.3 287.4  0.04
11  500  5165 -33.7 -57.3   8 23.5 -34.7 280  37 291.9 291.9 277.7 292.0  0.03
12  450  5899 -36.9 -59.1   8 22.2 -37.7 285  43 296.9 296.9 280.0 297.0  0.03
13  400  6708 -39.9 -60.4   9 20.5 -40.5 289  47 303.1 303.1 282.7 303.2  0.03
14  350  7614 -42.2 -61.7  10 19.4 -42.8 291  48 311.8 311.8 286.0 311.9  0.03
15  300  8653 -43.5 -62.2  11 18.7 -44.1 289  46 324.1 324.1 290.0 324.2  0.03
16  250  9874 -45.6 -62.9  13 17.3 -46.2 282  48 338.2 338.3 293.9 338.4  0.03
17  200 11351 -48.3 -66.5  10 18.2 -48.8 273  56 356.3 356.3 298.0 356.4  0.02
18  150 13233 -50.9 -72.6   6 21.7 -51.5 272  64 382.3 382.3 302.6 382.4  0.01
19  100 15859 -52.0 -81.2   2 29.2 -52.8 267  61 427.2 427.2 308.5 427.2  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0   

So that's 22.4 at the surface with a 22MPH(21.8 technically) NW wind. That comes out to a wind chill of 6º AT 18z(1PM) in the afternoon.

[Lookout]

Had a high here of 37 after a low of 19. Will be watching that disturbance and moisture over the plains between now and tomorrow. Models don't show any precip actually reaching the ground due to a dry boundary layer, however the nam simulated composite reflectivity suggests there could be some...especially in any banding feature. Comparing the last few runs of it's simulated reflectivity vs reality, it's been a little underdone. Soundings show it's cold enough for all snow, even in central Ga. The nam does not even get me above freezing tomorrow (no doubt in part because there should be a thick cloud cover). Gfs only shows 34 or so.

Keep in mind the nam's composite reflectivity takes into account virga as well so certainly not all of this will be reaching the ground. If any does, it likely will be in an east-west band(s) the nam has been suggesting the last few runs. Interesting to note, the 18z run is the furthest north with the moisture compared to past runs. There is a chance this stays south of i-20.

[Itunis]

Had a high here of 37 after a low of 19. Will be watching that disturbance and moisture over the plains between now and tomorrow. Models don't show any precip actually reaching the ground due to a dry boundary layer, however the nam simulated composite reflectivity suggests there could be some...especially in any banding feature. Comparing the last few runs of it's simulated reflectivity vs reality, it's been a little underdone. Soundings show it's cold enough for all snow, even in central Ga. The nam does not even get me above freezing tomorrow (no doubt in part because there should be a thick cloud cover). Gfs only shows 34 or so.

Keep in mind the nam's composite reflectivity takes into account virga as well so certainly not all of this will be reaching the ground. If any does, it likely will be in an east-west band(s) the nam has been suggesting the last few runs. Interesting to note, the 18z run is the furthest north with the moisture compared to past runs. There is a chance this stays south of i-20.

I'm feeling a virga storm east of AL. Single digit dewpoints will eat up what little looks to fall here; maybe central GA can get lucky but I have a feeling we're not going to see anything at all north of 20.

[burgertime]

I made this especially for this winter:

[ncjoaquin]

My high today 22.9. 26 at the airport. I had a day last year of 19.2 for a high. I wonder if next week can outdo that.

[superjames1992]

KGSO got up to a balmy high of 32 this afternoon in full sunshine. Amazing. The low this morning was 19.

[Lookout]

I'm feeling a virga storm east of AL. Single digit dewpoints will eat up what little looks to fall here; maybe central GA can get lucky but I have a feeling we're not going to see anything at all north of 20.

Well we are only talking flurries and at best brief snow showers for anyone that happens to get anything and it won't amount to anything. I do expect some to reach the ground somewhere in ga though as these types of systems often do have small pockets of light precip hit the ground, despite a dry boundary layer. As for the northern extent, there has been a slight northern trend in the moisture but I'm not saying north Georgia sees anything at all as there will be a sharp mid level moisture gradient. I'm simply saying there is a chance it creeps far enough north to give a slight chance of flurries.

This is only a chance of flurries or brief snow showers even in central ga so even if it doesn't happen, that is totally expected. I would put the chance at 20 to 30%, mainly central ga. Keep in mind, Often times if there is a 30% chance of flurries/snow showers and if someone doesn't get it they consider that a bust which is absurd because there is a 70% chance you don't get it. The forecast was right if you don't get it.

[NC_hailstorm]

31.5 today.

24 below normal

[DaculaWeather]

Well, I hit 37.0 today, about 1 degree colder than yesterday. The average temp yesterday was 15 degrees or so below normal for us.

[BullCityWx]

The DGEX actually ends the precip as snow in most of NC/SC, in fact it ends it as snow all the way down to KCHS.

[NEGa]

Dewpoints portend very frigid night ahead.

Wow, where are those low dew points when moisture is approaching lol

Didn't break freezing here today and tonight forecast is 14

[Itunis]

Wow, where are those low dew points when moisture is approaching lol

Didn't break freezing here today and tonight forecast is 14

Well moisture IS approaching...but it will be destroyed by the low dewpoints

[NEGa]

Well moisture IS approaching...but it will be destroyed by the low dewpoints

Lol i saw lookouts post after i made that one. I guess i should have been more specific....low dewpoints with lots of reds and yellows on the radar from ga to mississipppi. Sadly me, Rosie and dawsonwx probably have the least chance of seeing any flurries as we are too far north. Of course although this is the type of system that can give a few lucky peeps some flakes. So far, mby has not had flurries so i would love to see some before this cold snap ends

[RevDodd]

Heck, at 36, Faynam may have been the hot spot for the state! Or at least away from the coast.

[BIG FROSTY]

17 was the low here this morning, Currently a nice cool 20

[POWERSTROKE]

one cold day today. Was out winterizing irrigation systems. Sprayed water on a sidewalk and in two minutes it turned to ice

[VeronicaCorningstone]

I made this especially for this winter:

An hour later, and I'm still laughing at this. Well done

It's pretty darn crisp out there right now, at 28, and dead calm at the moment - I won't be surprised if we beat the forecasted low of 18. Maybe the geniuses at Chick-Fil-A will turn off the sprinklers tonight and keep the parking lot from being an ice rink tomorrow - they certainly didn't this morning when I went to get breakfast.

[Isopycnic]

An hour later, and I'm still laughing at this. Well done

It's pretty darn crisp out there right now, at 28, and dead calm at the moment - I won't be surprised if we beat the forecasted low of 18. Maybe the geniuses at Chick-Fil-A will turn off the sprinklers tonight and keep the parking lot from being an ice rink tomorrow - they certainly didn't this morning when I went to get breakfast.

LOL.

[HKY_WX]

Anyone here have the time to explain (or share a link) how the MJO affects the STJ? I've been wondering for a while, but haven't been successful in researching it. I've been trying to improve my understanding of all the teleconnections, but about as far as I've gotten is loosely understanding the NAO, AO, and PNA. I want to learn!

Here's a link to the current/past phase.

http://cawcr.gov.au/....Last90days.gif

You can use that plus the current season to figure out what the likely pattern is/will be down the road. We're currently in phase 4.

http://www.esrl.noaa...sd/mjo/Current/

[Buckethead]

Here's a link to the current/past phase.

http://cawcr.gov.au/....Last90days.gif

You can use that plus the current season to figure out what the likely pattern is/will be down the road. We're currently in phase 4.

http://www.esrl.noaa...sd/mjo/Current/

Greatly appreciated!

[DaculaWeather]

This disturbance over Texas has a nice little spin to it.

http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_texas_master.php

[Buckethead]

This disturbance over Texas has a nice little spin to it.

http://www.daculawea...exas_master.php

There's a nice slug of moisture streaming into it from the gulf. That is a nice spin.

[wx n of atl]

temp 29

dew point 15

[FoothillsNC]

My high today 22.9. 26 at the airport. I had a day last year of 19.2 for a high. I wonder if next week can outdo that.

You would easily be well under that if the GFS and Euro are correct in what they're showing now, probably no higher than 12 to 14. With nice squalls to boot. Already down to 22 here at 9:30pm

[DaculaWeather]

There's a nice slug of moisture streaming into it from the gulf. That is a nice spin.

Looking at the SPC maps, the 500mb stream takes a 90 degree turn to the east almost at the point of the spin.

[DopplerWx]

The DGEX actually ends the precip as snow in most of NC/SC, in fact it ends it as snow all the way down to KCHS.

for which event?

[WeatherNC]

for which event?

12-13th event, model (DGEX) has a track similar to the 18z GFS ens mean, no surprise though since that model is a downscaled gfs by nam extension. Track through the tidewater area, and puts down a dusting to 2" for a good chunk of central and eastern NC, and up into VA. DGEX SN maps make for good eye candy, but are hardly ever right...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

[DixieBlizzard]

I made this especially for this winter:

LOL! (groundhogzilla-ish)

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I made this especially for this winter:

Too funny Burger, good job.