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HWY316wx

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Why? The only thing it means is a higher heating bill. :bag: I'll go sit in timeout now.

The cold for next week does look very impressive though. :popcorn: Wonder if we'll set records here at GSP?

I dunno, most of us just appreciate out of the ordinary weather. I'm sure temps will be more friendly to your heating bill later on this winter. But the Euro is showing -16C 850 temps down to our area at 144, and at 168 we're still in that range. Absolutely amazing stuff.

By the way there was a layer of ice over a stagnant area of Big Creek this morning :snowman: Not at home but I assume we're at 36-38 right now.

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I dunno, most of us just appreciate out of the ordinary weather. I'm sure temps will be more friendly to your heating bill later on this winter. But the Euro is showing -16C 850 temps down to our area at 144, and at 168 we're still in that range. Absolutely amazing stuff.

By the way there was a layer of ice over a stagnant area of Big Creek this morning :snowman: Not at home but I assume we're at 36-38 right now.

What does this mean for actual highs, The new forecast from FFC just came out and they say upper 40s on next Tuesday????

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What does this mean for actual highs, The new forecast from FFC just came out and they say upper 40s on next Tuesday????

Highs would be under 30 for at least the northern half of the metro and below freezing for just about everyone. The point and click has 38 for me on Monday, I don't know where you're getting upper 40s from.

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anybody got any historical setup maps of the massive arctic outbreak of Jan '85 when so much of the SE set its all time lows??

that outbreak had -20 at 850 over a pretty large area, and came in via Ohio Valley and lower Midwest. This one so far isn't progged to be that expansive or cold, but just a few degrees shy of it. But for NC and SC and probably Georgia, the net effect could be very close to the same since this event on Euro and GFS will have the 510 vortex sitting to our due north, not northwest. I've always believed that the piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas gets its coldest readings from when the cold advection is due north, like shown. However, there's also a lack of an arctic high sitting directly overhead, so that means nighttime lows probably wouldn't be able to bottom out to extreme levels , since a slight breeze will be common through the night. But negating that, the pure advective cold could yield some record low "max" temperatures during the days. Its a pretty unusual look, so we'll have to wait and see if the extreme anamolies shown on the models are really legit.

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Highs would be under 30 for at least the northern half of the metro and below freezing for just about everyone. The point and click has 38 for me on Monday, I don't know where you're getting upper 40s from.

true enough I just looked at FFC zones and its upper 40's in the fx for Atlanta and Athens. Obviously they're banking on the Euro and GFS being a little extreme, like 20 full degrees extreme. Probably throwing in some climo at that range as well, like they did with this outbreak, went quite a bit too warm.

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true enough I just looked at FFC zones and its upper 40's in the fx for Atlanta and Athens. Obviously they're banking on the Euro and GFS being a little extreme, like 20 full degrees extreme. Probably throwing in some climo at that range as well, like they did with this outbreak, went quite a bit too warm.

You guys are right, that's pretty odd. Weird to see them relatively bullish on snow prospects but shying away from forecasting the cold. I can't say I'd be comfortable forecasting near record low temps either at that timeframe though.

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Next week's outbreak could be the coldest that it gets all Winter in the Southeast. I guess blanket statements like that could come back to bite me, but usually we can't expect see any colder air than whats progged anyway, in any Winter. However, if the NAO keeps ebbing back and forth in the neg. territory at such a low reading, we'll be dealing with an outbreak again most likely, however this NAO is progged off the charts to the extreme if I recall. AFter next week, the pattern imo, will likely get warmer and damper.

I agree, the upcoming cold looks very, very impressive. It's a shame that what you said about warmer and damper will probably come true. That quasi-permanent vortex near the Gulf of Alaska is really killing us. As long as that's there, we're either going to see clippers in the NW flow (if there is a strong west-based -NAO) or warmer with showers/rain.

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true enough I just looked at FFC zones and its upper 40's in the fx for Atlanta and Athens. Obviously they're banking on the Euro and GFS being a little extreme, like 20 full degrees extreme. Probably throwing in some climo at that range as well, like they did with this outbreak, went quite a bit too warm.

They are always so damn conservative, and they completely contradict their disco with the forecast???

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Hit 32 at the airport here today. Just looking back at the Op. GFS from 4 days ago, it looks like it nailed the 32 line in NC. If I recall the Euro was a little warmer on its 2m temps, valid yesterday and today on the Max temps. The GFS also nailed the 2m temps in both big outbreaks last year for NC. Most of the media outlets in CLT market had highs 40 and above for the CLT region yesterday and today.

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Next week's outbreak could be the coldest that it gets all Winter in the Southeast. I guess blanket statements like that could come back to bite me, but usually we can't expect see any colder air than whats progged anyway, in any Winter. However, if the NAO keeps ebbing back and forth in the neg. territory at such a low reading, we'll be dealing with an outbreak again most likely, however this NAO is progged off the charts to the extreme if I recall. AFter next week, the pattern imo, will likely get warmer and damper.

I think what's going to make it extra cold is like you've said, if the CAA comes due north, there's little to no downsloping to warm it up.

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