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December 2010


HWY316wx

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I have actually transitioned over to light snow here. Surprising because the radar appears to be quite dry, this must be low level moisture and light enough not to be picked out by the Morristown radar.

Whoa. Thanks for the observation. The huge area of rain ahead of the cold front finally passed through here (over two and a half inches of rain!), and temperatures are beginning to drop as the front moves through as well. I checked wunderground and noted temperatures in the thirties as close as Morristown around thirty minutes ago. Will be interesting to see how soon this area hits the thirties and if any snow begins to fall.

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I realize this technically belongs in November's thread, but...

12:00 AM

11/30/2010

95 mph Non-thunderstorm Wind Gust

5 W Gatlinburg

Sevier, TN

95 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE COVE MOUNTAIN FIRE TOWER.

12:00 AM

11/30/2010

90 mph Non-thunderstorm Wind Gust

Camp Creek

Greene, TN

90 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE NOAA WIND TOWER.

LOVE mountain waves.

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the 00z Euro doesn't look good. First the clipper gives snow to the midwest, drops down to maybe the northern NC mtns into n. NC and points north just below DC, then out to sea and bombs it. Then turns it into a powerful storm for Maine and eastern Canada (Great lake effect following it a cople days). But the western storm stays offshore Calif. for a couple days, never comes inland, and gets absorbed or sheared by the Gulf of Ala, low, so its just a cold , northerly flow for us in the South next week. 850's get to -12 some areas, with strong arcitc high sitting over the Ohio Valley to Southeast for several days. Very different from tonight s GFS which actually looked pretty good, atleast early on.

The rain here didn't last long, and I totalled 1.15" on the event (as of this writing...almost over )

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You guys notice the 6z GFS at 90/96 hours. Looks like an upper level disturbance passes over NC and it pants some light precip (light dusting at best) over central and eastern NC. These types od systems are extremely unpredictable, so we could get nothing (which I would bet on right now) or more than a dusting (it has happened before).

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Looking at the 06z run of the gfs... its nice, but I'm not buying how intense it has that southern stream impulse is quite yet. In La Nina years we tend to have the opposite trend as El Nino. Last year, we watched as the southern stream was able to fight and produce a deeper and more amplified solution as the models came closer to the initial time of the event. Thankfully we also had a massive -AO and -NAO which worked to deep the southern stream suppressed. It didn't reduce the intensity of the jet, but just deflected it south of the norm. This year, with a strong La Nina, if we do get the same setup with a nice -AO and -NAO combo, it will be interesting to watch the evolution of the southern stream.

Thus far, the latter half of this fall has been dominated by the Polar Jet, and there hasn't really been much split flow action, which is to be expected when the Polar Jet dominates. However, now that we have a bit of blocking to keep the s/w from being a lakes cutter, both the GFS and EURO are advertising some form of split flow. I am curious to see how the subtropical jet responds with the southern stream system depicted by the GFS. My hunch is that it doesn't really have the same punch that El Nino had last year, and the 500mb low suppressed over the Northeast will prevent much if any amplification of this feature. I'd love to be wrong, but after watching the euro lose the feature the last couple of runs, I'm worried that the robustness of the subtropical jet won't be able to overcome a strong -AO and -NAO pattern.

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JB thinks we are still in the game for some snow, Just like it always is here, It's a wait and see game..... :arrowhead:

The latest ideas on snow next week have a storm cutting southeast from Nebraska to the Carolinas. The threat of a block buster lies with the system coming through Caliornia the middle of next week and then heading east after that. There should be some kind of phasing. I would be surprised if we got out of this before Christmas without major snow in the midwest, mid atlantic and northeast, perhaps even as far south as the Carolinas.

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Ended up with 3.41" here in Dahlonega. Very nice event.

Sitting at 32.1 now with mostly cloudy skies....no flurries that I have seen yet.

0z Euro and 0z GFS and 6z GFS are....:gun_bandana:

The big kick in the balls in the storm not coming next Wed. but showing up on now on Sunday of next week! Ha!

Hopefully it's just the Euro toying with us this far out and it shows back on say Saturday.

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