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December 2010


HWY316wx

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We might get a few snow showers instead of flurries on the backside according to it. The difference between the 0Z/6Z GFS and the good old Euro is surprisingly large for something relatively close range.

Tony and anyone else living in C GA should take note...snippet from FFC's morning disco.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MIDDLE GA. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT RESULTING FROM CSI BANDING OR VERTICAL MOTION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT SLEET OR MIX OF SLEET IN THE GRIDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

22 here with a dew point of 10.

Yeah, I've been watching that it seems like for weeks. My feeling now is it won't effect me but rather points south, maybe Macon or Valdosta.

Ala. probably has a chance for more than a few pellets. It just isn't as cold down here and that may help. It only got to 24.8 this morning. I feel like I'm in a sauna compared to you folks up the road :) Kind of disappointing...I like some good cold....but this is kind of run of the mill for me. Maybe this next push will find it's way past Atl. I haven't seen 0 in a long time. T

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Yeah, I've been watching that it seems like for weeks. My feeling now is it won't effect me but rather points south, maybe Macon or Valdosta.

Ala. probably has a chance for more than a few pellets. It just isn't as cold down here and that may help. It only got to 24.8 this morning. I feel like I'm in a sauna compared to you folks up the road :) Kind of disappointing...I like some good cold....but this is kind of run of the mill for me. Maybe this next push will find it's way past Atl. I haven't seen 0 in a long time. T

FFC gives you a 20% chance of RAIN on Wed.

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Congrats NE Georgia if it's cold enough throughout the layers which i'm not so sure it will be: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif :arrowhead: Euro up against GFS...who will win the battle royale? :weight_lift:

99.5 % of that precip will have fallen by the time it gets cold enough aloft to snow.Remember there is a 6 hour lag between pecip increments, but the isotherms are current for the valid hour.

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99.5 % of that precip will have fallen by the time it gets cold enough aloft to snow.Remember there is a 6 hour lag between pecip increments, but the isotherms are current for the valid hour.

Darn. :( I forgot about the six hour increments on the qpf field. Looks like another case of cold air chasing the precip sadly. :lightning: Cold air and qpf together here is like two opposite sides of a magnet attracting to one another...it just doesn't work out too well.

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Darn. :( I forgot about the six hour increments on the qpf field. Looks like another case of cold air chasing the precip sadly. :lightning: Cold air and qpf together here is like two opposite sides of a magnet attracting to one another...it just doesn't work out too well.

For your area to get snow out of this, and really ne GA and anywhere east of the higher elevations you'd want to see the GFS continue to dig even more, toward central GA and deepen rapidly at the same time, to combine the best lift , cold and moisture simultaneously. Already the GFS is well south of the op ECMWF and I wouldn't go with the GFS just yet. We'll see how the day's runs go, but I think the Euro is a little too far north and west.

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FFC gives you a 20% chance of RAIN on Wed.

I don't think there will be much of anything, but if not snow, then it would certainly be ice pellets, not rain. The atmosphere will still be way too cold and dry for liquid precip there.

It if clouds up I might see some virga :)

I think Miss./ Ala. has a better chance, but it looks mighty dry..though it is hard to believe it will be so suppressed being the GFS. T

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For your area to get snow out of this, and really ne GA and anywhere east of the higher elevations you'd want to see the GFS continue to dig even more, toward central GA and deepen rapidly at the same time, to combine the best lift , cold and moisture simultaneously. Already the GFS is well south of the op ECMWF and I wouldn't go with the GFS just yet. We'll see how the day's runs go, but I think the Euro is a little too far north and west.

What caused the 0z gfs and 6z to continue digging our low more. Is the block backing more westward or is a HP placement upstream/NW changing positions on these 2 GFS runs? Thanks trying to learn from this storm. Unusal to see a northern wave drop down and close off/deepen like this w/o merging with a stj wave isnt it.

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What caused the 0z gfs and 6z to continue digging our low more. Is the block backing more westward or is a HP placement upstream/NW changing positions on these 2 GFS runs? Thanks trying to learn from this storm. Unusal to see a northern wave drop down and close off/deepen like this w/o merging with a stj wave isnt it.

a few days ago the GFS was extremely far south , giving eastern NC about 2 feet of snow. It has a southern bias in general. I do think it will be further south than Euro shows but not by that much. Its handling the Pacific much differently with a ridge building, which allows more eastern digging. Once in a while the GFS leads the way, but I wouldn't count on it in this case. Seems its probably arriving at a time when the flow is progressive and zonal, in between Amplification periods. Eventually a low might take that track (nw to se, then up coast), the pattern is close to supporting it, just cant get the timing of PNA ridging just right yet.

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a few days ago the GFS was extremely far south , giving eastern NC about 2 feet of snow. It has a southern bias in general. I do think it will be further south than Euro shows but not by that much. Its handling the Pacific much differently with a ridge building, which allows more eastern digging. Once in a while the GFS leads the way, but I wouldn't count on it in this case. Seems its probably arriving at a time when the flow is progressive and zonal, in between Amplification periods. Eventually a low might take that track (nw to se, then up coast), the pattern is close to supporting it, just cant get the timing of PNA ridging just right yet.

I thought I remembered that when more than one stream is involved, the GFS usually doesn't score well and follows the other modeling often.

The one thing that gives a little hope, is that the GFS usually scores better when one stream is involved (i.e la nina). Of course I could be dreaming this, so if i am, please correct me.

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