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December 2010


HWY316wx

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There's been some oddball situations over the last decade that have left them out. A couple places that stand out in regards to the 30 year climo snow averages in the South, are Tennessee and western SC I think. Last years best potential on Jan 31 fell through for them and NC won again, against all guidance. Seems like all the overrunning events, few as they are, go to pot for one reason or another there, either convection robs, or a band develops in NC and dryslots them. Its happened a lot more in the last 10 years than I've ever noticed before. The best chances are with very weak waves in a southern stream, or just purely lucking up with the track of a very strong ULL, both of these seem rare nowadays.

Ahh now I remember, January 1988 was likely the last major snowstorm that everyone got to enjoy in Upstate, SC. Unfortunately that also is pretty much the historic benchmark. Its funny because if you compare the event to January 29-30 this year, there are some pretty remarkable similarities.

Both featured a very potent Polar Vortex that provided ample cold air in place. Both has a southern stream impulse that was forced to be suppressed by this polar vortex. The only difference is that this year's impuse was a touch stronger, and thats why WAA kept folks in upstate SC from enjoying good snowfall like folks further north in WNC.

January 6th 1988

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January 29th, 2010

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Ahh now I remember, January 1988 was likely the last major snowstorm that everyone got to enjoy in Upstate, SC. Unfortunately that also is pretty much the historic benchmark. Its funny because if you compare the event to January 29-30 this year, there are some pretty remarkable similarities.

Both featured a very potent Polar Vortex that provided ample cold air in place. Both has a southern stream impulse that was forced to be suppressed by this polar vortex. The only difference is that this year's impuse was a touch stronger, and thats why WAA kept folks in upstate SC from enjoying good snowfall like folks further north in WNC.

Excellent posts, Phil.... I'm learning so much! It's 14 here now, but no flurries. Just ran the water into the tub, just in case...... My low all last season was 9 on January 8, and my lake froze.

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post-1004-0-77074000-1291707029.jpg

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snow is actually picking up here again... humidity has risen from 65% earlier back to 83%... and it looks like we are gonna have one last shot of enhancement from the last lobe of vorticity swinging around the long-wave through.... maybe enough to squeeze out a couple more tenths?

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6Z GFS looks farther south.

We might get a few snow showers instead of flurries on the backside according to it. The difference between the 0Z/6Z GFS and the good old Euro is surprisingly large for something relatively close range.

Tony and anyone else living in C GA should take note...snippet from FFC's morning disco.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MIDDLE GA. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT RESULTING FROM CSI BANDING OR VERTICAL MOTION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT SLEET OR MIX OF SLEET IN THE GRIDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

22 here with a dew point of 10.

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Tony and anyone else living in C GA should take note...snippet from FFC's morning disco.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MIDDLE GA. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT RESULTING FROM CSI BANDING OR VERTICAL MOTION...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT SLEET OR MIX OF SLEET IN THE GRIDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

22 here with a dew point of 10.

I was looking at this, and depending on what model you use, the column is still fairly dry from 875 mb down. It would take a heck of a lot of moisture to create any type of precip. I have a feeling this is just the NWS in Peachtree wanting some kind of winter weather. Though, with saying this, it will probably sleet here for hours...! haha

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Bottomed out at 21.4 at 2am then temps went up a few degrees. Winds have been relentless all night as my average wind speed (not gust) has been 12 mph so far since midnight with gust into the mid 20's. If the winds could have backed off just a bit teens would have been easy. The winds picked back up around midnight and have been consistent since.

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