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December 2010


HWY316wx

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Man the gfs and euro sure look cold in the medium/long range. Gfs has highs only in the 20s in some parts day 7 and lows probably dipping into the single digits in the mountains and low teens in the foothills and that is with a pretty strong wind per gfs soundings. With makes it more impressive since it's advection cold and not just radiational cooling.

It sucks though that we can't get anything out of this it looks like, especially ga/sc.

That little piece of energy coming into N. Cali today looks like it wants to head our way. Wonder if that might not try to spit some drizzle or sleet on points south around mid week. It is about the right time of year for sleet/snow flurries in Pensacola.

Right now I'd love some cold rain as I still have some seed that needs some rain on it.

Either way it is a good day to be outside and should be all week. T

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what was your high yesterday? How are the media outlets handling your temps? Sitting at 36 here now.

Yesterday we had a midnight high at 35.2 degrees. Thus far today we just cracked 30 with a high of 30.4 degrees... but is is just likely due to the fact my station is in direct sunlight during this portion of the day. A more accurate representation is the station at UNCA which uses an aspirated shield. Their high so far today is 26.6 degrees.

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Still pretty far out though, but epic cold, potentially historic cold for the first part of Dec if it were to verify. A more subdued outbreak is the likely option given rarity of cold in this proportion, as depicted. This runs keeps almost the entire SE entrenched in >-18C 850T anomalies for over 48hrs, which is practically unheard of...

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YOu modelwatchers are speaking in weenie code. For us layman, spell out the actual temps depicted in Fahrenheit.

This would be record cold verbatim, the likes of which few in the SE have seen in early Dec. But take it with a big hunk of salt at this point, still in the 7 day and it will likely change to a more modified and less extreme solution.

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In the next calendar week, it's very possible we could have at least 3 days that don't crack freezing for the high. The euro is suggesting we're going to have trouble getting much above freezing, if at all, tomorrow too.

yes the GFS had us west of 85 right at freezing for highs from a few days ago, so overall its handling this cold pretty well.

That little piece of energy coming into N. Cali today looks like it wants to head our way. Wonder if that might not try to spit some drizzle or sleet on points south around mid week. It is about the right time of year for sleet/snow flurries in Pensacola.

Right now I'd love some cold rain as I still have some seed that needs some rain on it.

Either way it is a good day to be outside and should be all week. T

On Wednesday you may sneak a peek of a flake, its probably more likely to your south, and west. Parts of La, Ark and Miss. have a decent shot at a few flakes from the western wave before it totally peters out later Wednesday night.

The cold coming down next week is truly magnificent and would be much colder than any airmass from last Winter. La Nina's are known for this type of extreme amplification and Iike the recent outbreak, I think it has a good chance of being in the ballpark. It has highs less than 30 ° from near ILM to CAE to south of Atlanta for both Monday and Tuesday. It's showing highs less than 20° for Hickory, Asheville and Forest City those days on it's 2M temps. Amazing cold. The cold 5H core will cut off to our north, thanks to a strong block in s. Greenland, so we'll stay cold for much of next week. I hate using up all our cold weather in these extreme nw flow cold outbreaks, because there's virtually no chance of any southern stream to help us out with precip. Only when the cold relaxes can we get into a brief warm up just enough for some rain, then we repeat all over again. I'm holding out a little hope that after next week's cold outbreak, the blocking in Greenland can work westward and shunt the Pacific northwest action more on a southerly track, digging into the Rockies , instead of the Ohio Valley type clippers we have now.

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Still pretty far out though, but epic cold, potentially historic cold for the first part of Dec if it were to verify. A more subdued outbreak is the likely option given rarity of cold in this proportion, as depicted. This runs keeps almost the entire SE entrenched in >-18C 850T anomalies for over 48hrs, which is practically unheard of...

The pattern depicted on the Euro though seems to simply just be a more extreme version of what we currently have. I concur with Robert that I think we are going to just reload the same pattern again after a temporary moderation in anticipation for the next long-wave trough to dive in. The problem is that we simpily can't buy a southern stream system given the current state of La Nina. We have plenty of cold thanks to the -AO and -NAO, but a lack of southern stream systems pretty much kills our chances of snow for most of the southeast. We will have to rely on clippers and other impulses. Folks that are in the northwest flow prone areas though have to be loving the pattern coming up!

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO

THURSDAY...WITH A RISE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT

INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER

THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS...DRAGGING ANOTHER SEEMINGLY DRY COLD FRONT

THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND

PLACEMENT OF SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT

DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES INTO

THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEEKEND...PULLING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE

INTO THE STATE. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME

IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE

STATE LATE SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN 1000 TO 850MB AND 850

TO 700 MB THICKNESSES. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE

COINCIDING WITH COLDER CONDITIONS...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS

ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN

MODELS MEANS THING COULD CHANGE...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS NEXT

WEEK APPROACHES.

OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

THE LONG TERM.:shiver:

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Looking at the 6HR Max Temps on the euro, it's suggesting most of the north carolina doesnt make it out of the 20's from hour 168 until the end of the run.

Yep. And probably only no higher than teens in Asheville and maybe FC to HKY. My airport high so far is 34 today, with the mean temp of 25. You don't see that too often around here.

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