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December 2010

HWY316wx

By HWY316wx,
in Southeastern States

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

the winds have really picked up in the last hour or so. for a while it had cleared out, but getting some more light rain. total for the day is .23"

You've go that right. Just look at the wind gust graph in my signature. I've had a 34mph gust and 19mph 10-minute average speed. Very windy...

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
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The cold still looks imprssive coming up the next few days. I don't think Northeast Ga to western NC will get much above 32 until Wednesday sometime. I'm looking at temps here in the 30's for atleast Sun=mon, possibly Tuesday, but we may hit 40 tomorrow, going to be close.

Up next the GFS has 2 more west to east systems. The one late week should miss us to the north, but be important to lay down more cold air, and steer the next system further south. I don't know if its right going as far south as tonights run takes it. For what its worth, it takes a track similar to March 2009, witha nice winter storm, and a deepening upper level and surface system, with cold air infusing about the time its arriving, thanks to plentiful cold air to work with to the north of the track. It looks possible, but I won't bite on the big totals it's putting out this far in advance. We need to nail downa track first. Overall, I'd expect run to run changes since theres such a long stretch of almost zonal, the good news is the late week system should really help get us the cold back in here, but it stil will be a very close call probably.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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I'll take the 0z gfs @ hr 192 & 204. Very nice!

Yep...me too. GFS actually pumps a ridge out west with the polar vortex over the hudson bay and a nice shortwave digging south and going boom off the carolina coast. Now just put that ridge a tad further to the west along the coast so the short wave can dig further to our west and all of us will be in business. At least is only 8 days out so it has a shot of surviving at least a few more model runs.:arrowhead:

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Thanks Robert. 2 runs in a row now on GFS. 7 1/2/- 8 Days away so who knows. Would be huge if we can get this to verify, anyway heres qpf off 0z for 24 hour period. This is all snow in NC total qpf. I think also for SC and North GA, but I was just looking at my immediate area as I flipped through and picked my best 24 hours. Hopefully Euro will show storm tonight.

gfs_p24_204s.gif

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Thanks Robert. 2 runs in a row now on GFS. 7 1/2/- 8 Days away so who knows. Would be huge if we can get this to verify, anyway heres qpf off 0z for 24 hour period. This is all snow in NC total qpf. I think also for SC and North GA, but I was just looking at my immediate area as I flipped through and picked my best 24 hours. Hopefully Euro will show storm tonight.

A met can correct me, but it looks like it starts off as rain for GA and much of the Upstate. Not overly impressive for the ATL area taken literally since we don't benefit from it intensifying over the Atlantic. Obviously things will change dramatically.

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NCBlizzard

NCBlizzard

Posted
Posted

The cold still looks imprssive coming up the next few days. I don't think Northeast Ga to western NC will get much above 32 until Wednesday sometime. I'm looking at temps here in the 30's for atleast Sun=mon, possibly Tuesday, but we may hit 40 tomorrow, going to be close.

Up next the GFS has 2 more west to east systems. The one late week should miss us to the north, but be important to lay down more cold air, and steer the next system further south. I don't know if its right going as far south as tonights run takes it. For what its worth, it takes a track similar to March 2009, witha nice winter storm, and a deepening upper level and surface system, with cold air infusing about the time its arriving, thanks to plentiful cold air to work with to the north of the track. It looks possible, but I won't bite on the big totals it's putting out this far in advance. We need to nail downa track first. Overall, I'd expect run to run changes since theres such a long stretch of almost zonal, the good news is the late week system should really help get us the cold back in here, but it stil will be a very close call probably.

Thanks for the update Robert! :thumbsup:

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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A met can correct me, but it looks like it starts off as rain for GA and much of the Upstate. Not overly impressive for the ATL area taken literally since we don't benefit from it intensifying over the Atlantic. Obviously things will change dramatically.

I think you are seeing it correctly taking this run literally. Would be rain to snow in my opinion over north GA. That's why I would prefer it to dig a little further to the west of what this model run progged.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
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I think you are seeing it correctly taking this run literally. Would be rain to snow in my opinion over north GA. That's why I would prefer it to dig a little further to the west of what this model run progged.

I wouldn't pick this run apart ( think I already did in another post!) but this run is very similar to the Mar 09 track, and woldn't be bad at all. I haven't looked at each panel much so i don't know the QPF totals after its cold enough for snow, but there's plenty of room ahead of this for it to be cold enough at the onset for n. Ga to NC, and more than likely all of TN. The divergence and track of the 850 is good, and deepening the entire time. I'd sure be happy with this outcome, just disregarding qpf. The track alone would be pretty good but obviously temps are close. The one thing about emps, with the NE system, there we've seen runs trend colder, not warmer, in setups like this before, its just been so long though since that happened. But the wave could dig too far west and south, or a little too far north, which would put us in the warm sector. Anythings possible right now, and with zonal flow Thur-Sat, its still risky for sure where anything will amplify. Can be huge changes.

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
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I wouldn't pick this run apart ( think I already did in another post!) but this run is very similar to the Mar 09 track, and wouldn't be bad at all. I haven't looked at each panel much so i don't know the QPF totals after its cold enough for snow, but there's plenty of room ahead of this for it to be cold enough at the onset for n. Ga to NC, and more than likely all of TN. The divergence and track of the 850 is good, and deepening the entire time. I'd sure be happy with this outcome, just disregarding qpf. The track alone would be pretty good but obviously temps are close. The one thing about emps, with the NE system, there we've seen runs trend colder, not warmer, in setups like this before, its just been so long though since that happened. But the wave could dig too far west and south, or a little too far north, which would put us in the warm sector. Anythings possible right now, and with zonal flow Thur-Sat, its still risky for sure where anything will amplify. Can be huge changes.

That's what concerns me as well. The system can either shoot up to the north at the last moment or take a dive further south, which will make for quite a headache on putting out any forecasts. Personally, I'm thinking that we could end up JUST cold enough for some form of wintry precipitation, but just what form does it take is just one of the many questions. This will take some time, and as we learned from this clipper system, a surprise or two can rear its head even during the time of the event, so that's another thing to take into account. However, I do feel more comfortable about this storm than the event that we were going to have for this coming Tuesday/Wednesday, so our chances for precipitation are better but not by a lot. We'll see.

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

Going to be the coldest Christmas parade here in years tomorrow

Indeed. I remember it was pretty chilly last time but I think this time we are definitely gonna need to bundle up for this year. In addition to this, this is one of the worst fogs I've seen. It's next to impossible to see the stop sign that's just down the road from my house.

Btw, if you don't mind my asking, what part of Gastonia do you live in? I live beside 321 where the Mcdonald's and Hardee's are near each other. If you're turning off from West Franklin Blvd. and onto S. Chester St., you'll see those restaurants if you keep going down.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Weenie Post...

Wow has anyone looked at the EURO in the long range. It is seriously cranking a record setting heights near Greenland. Seriosly the heights are 602!! meters above average for the region near Greenland at 240 hours. Yes those are 5820 meter heights near Greenland! Just unreal. The gfs is very similar although not quite as impressive.

2lln314.gif

You know if you consider not as impressive as a 499 meter above normal observation which is still off the charts.

2vniczq.gif

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

They better blow over this way. Still straining my eyes looking for a flake here.:scooter:

I hope you get some flakes, You are one of the top notch Mets & poster on this board and you deserve some snow. I enjoy and appreciate your posts for us se peeps. :thumbsup:

BTW- I got lucky and ended up with 3 inches with this storm. :snowman:

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

I hope you get some flakes, You are one of the top notch Mets & poster on this board and you deserve some snow. I enjoy and appreciate your posts for us se peeps. :thumbsup:

BTW- I got lucky and ended up with 3 inches with this storm. :snowman:

3 inches. Nice.

I'm at 0 for the year, but I do have a dusting and some flakes flying this AM.

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