prinsburg_wx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 853 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010 .DISCUSSION... OPTED TO ISSUE A QUICK WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON REPORTS COMING IN FROM THE OMAHA METRO AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK SNOW BURST THAT WAS MOVING UP THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING...AND WITH EXPECTED DEFORMATION BAND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SAME AREA OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT OF A VERY UNIQUE SITUATION THAT NOT EVERY LOCATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. BOTH THE WESTERN/EASTERN EDGES OF THE AREA IN QUESTION STILL ARE RECEIVING A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE...BUT LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN HAVE LIKELY PICKED UP AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY. AND...A POSSIBLE CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING FLASH WAS NOTED...AND THIS ISNT SURPRISING GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...COUPLED WITH THE 50DBZ BAND OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW MOVING UP THE RIVER. PLUS...IT IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON...AND THE IMPACT ON THE METRO AREA AND I29 WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 NWS did in fact just add another inch to Omaha's totals (now they're expecting 3-5" instead of 2-4"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The entire Minneapolis-St Paul area is now under a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12z NAM may have been a off run, because the latest (00z) NAM just came in and it does in fact keep the entire Minneapolis-St Paul under all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 ahh first defo band is a beauty. same thing happening now in OAX of what happen in AMA this morning. take a look at the isentropic analysis, some serious slant wise convection going on, its really unstable aloft. some fun stuff. amazing isentropic ascent. now the dry slot is starting to fill in nicely from falls city, NE to red oak, IA here is the 0z OAX sounding http://weather.cod.e...aob.pl?site=oax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Here's a pretty good live webcam from a town just east of Omaha. http://www.carterlake.org/wx12.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 130319Z - 130745Z A CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/ORIENT INTO GENERAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BANDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITHIN AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION BAND/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM FAR EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND/JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES AT MID EVENING /03Z/...BUT COLD ADVECTION/HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO /OR AT LEAST EMBEDDED BOUTS OF/ SNOW. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 00Z OMAHA OBSERVED RAOB AND OBSERVED SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC/00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HEAVY WET SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP A DEEP /JUST BELOW FREEZING/ ISOTHERMAL LAYER BEING RATHER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FLAKES/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND BEYOND. FURTHERMORE...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK STATIC STABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AND EVEN SOME SCANT CAPE NOTED IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...EMBEDDED SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 IN/HR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. ..GUYER.. 11/13/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Iowa starting to changeover.... KDNS 130355Z AUTO 02010G14KT 3/4SM SN OVC003 02/M01 A3015 RMK AO2 P0013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 nice looking storm, reminds me of the classic early november storms from the late 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 nice looking storm, reminds me of the classic early november storms from the late 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 You just knew there would be a decent storm sometime around mid nov for that area.. I basically nailed the exact area back in august except I said around the 21st give or take 3 days. Congrats to those under the gun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Look at Midwestern Precipitation Anomalies for October and November for 2007 & 2008. Now, remember those winters following? Yeah,It's a good track, because it should migrate our way into the winter... No reason to complain, or be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Turned over to snow around 11 this evening, I think much earlier then any model thought...Coating on the grass already..should be a fun night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Did your Column cool or something?.... Mine did, like a the genitals of Mr.Freeze from Batman.. Congrats.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Did your Column cool or something?.... Mine did, like a the genitals of Mr.Freeze from Batman.. Congrats.. It cooled very fast, It started raining around nine or so when we were sitting at 40 degrees, by 11 we were down to 33 degrees, down to 32 now! It's a very very wet snow, Find it hard for this to stick to the pavement much..HRRR shows some intense banding developing here in a couple hours, so we'll see.. NOW... A VERY WIDE AREA OF MIXED STEADY RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MINNESOTA AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MOST OF THE EVENING. NOW...THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTH INTO INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITY METRO AREA...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RAIN IS RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE METRO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE SHOULD MAKE IT TO LAKE MILLE LAKES...LITTLE FALLS SAINT CLOUD...LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS AND MARSHALL BY 600 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY AROUND 600 AM. 1 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN CITIES EAST OVER TO EAU CLAIRE AND RICE LAKE WISCONSIN. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MNZ075&warncounty=MNC103&firewxzone=MNZ075&local_place1=4+Miles+S+Nicollet+MN&product1=Short+Term+Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 1007 PM SNOW CHARTER OAK 42.07N 95.59W 11/12/2010 E5.0 INCH CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT 5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD COUNTY. FROM CRAWFORD COUNTY SHERIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Nice banding developing right over me, Just a surreal sight outside right now, winds gusting to 30 mph and snowing moderately.Looks like around 4 am is when it should really start cranking.. Looking over radar trends, and the snowfall reports out of Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, this looks scary accurate! May need to be shifted a bit further west though. *Edit--Surface analysis shows this storm is actually 4 mb lower then the 00z NAM showed it at this time.. at 29.77" in Chariton,IA Des Moines is at 29.79" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 0125 AM SNOW DENISON 42.02N 95.35W 11/13/2010 E6.0 INCH CRAWFORD IA BROADCAST MEDIA CRAWFORD COUNTY SHERIFF VIA KMEG TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0600 AM SNOW FAIRMONT 43.64N 94.46W11/13/2010 M5.0 INCH MARTIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER 0300 AM HEAVY SNOW STORM LAKE 42.65N 95.20W 11/13/2010 M5.5 INCH BUENA VISTA IA LAW ENFORCEMENT 0256 AM SNOW MALLARD 42.94N 94.68W 11/13/2010 E7.0 INCH PALO ALTO IA LAW ENFORCEMENT 6-8 INCHES IN RURAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. LOCATION ESTIMATED. FROM PALO ALTO COUNTY SHERIFF. 0238 AM SNOW DENISON 42.02N 95.35W 11/13/2010 E8.0 INCH CRAWFORD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM CRAWFORD COUNTY SHERIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 3" on the ground at MSP METAR KMSP 131353Z 01013KT 1SM R30L/4500VP6000FT -SN BR BKN008 BKN011 OVC018 01/M01 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP170 SNINCR 1/3 P0010 T00061006 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Not to bad for some of those areas. Definitely nice to see significant accumulations considering a lot of those places have been recently very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The observations from Fairmont and Mankato show the wind gusting over 60 mph in recent hours, although I don't see any other mention of it in a discussion, statement, or storm report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The observations from Fairmont and Mankato show the wind gusting over 60 mph in recent hours. Hmm if those are legit, shouldn't there be blizzard warnings up. Although it looks very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Looking forward to a mid-morning view into the winter wonderland via Skype with relatives up in Bloomington, MN. We contemplated driving up last night and spending the weekend up there. It would have been good family time but definitely a snow chase nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 some pretty nice accumulations right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 5.3 inches from the NWS office in Chanhassen about a mile from me. 6 inches reported by a spotter a bit south of Burnsville. The trees here are just coated in snow. Nice fat juicy flakes falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 ended up with 1.8 inches at my house, but has since melted. mostly sunny now in lincoln, ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Sick radar up north.. Dad had to call and rub it in.. Just how I envisioned the big one going down this fall. Someone is getting a good 12" in NW Sconnie. Hope its my hunting grounds and it doesn't melt before opening weekend next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 What the hell is going on at KMKT? I'm assuming there's something wrong with the sensors but I can't be sure. That 70kt gust looks pretty spurious though. KMKT 131555Z AUTO 01024G70KT M1/4SM OVC004 01/M05 A2991 RMK AO1 KMKT 131535Z AUTO 01019G40KT 1/4SM OVC004 01/00 A2992 RMK AO1 KMKT 131515Z AUTO 01034G42KT 1/4SM OVC004 00/00 A2993 RMK AO1 KMKT 131455Z AUTO 01035G58KT 1/4SM OVC004 00/00 A2993 RMK AO1 57024 KMKT 131435Z AUTO 01019G41KT M1/4SM OVC004 00/00 A2995 RMK AO1 KMKT 131415Z AUTO 01044G55KT M1/4SM OVC003 00/00 A2995 RMK AO1 KMKT 131355Z AUTO 02018G46KT M1/4SM OVC003 00/00 A2996 RMK AO1 KMKT 131335Z AUTO 02046G55KT M1/4SM OVC003 00/00 A2996 RMK AO1 KMKT 131315Z AUTO 02033G39KT M1/4SM OVC003 00/00 A2996 RMK AO1 KMKT 131255Z AUTO 02017G28KT 1/2SM OVC004 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO1 KMKT 131235Z AUTO 02031G41KT 3/4SM OVC004 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO1 KMKT 131215Z AUTO 02018G23KT 1SM OVC004 01/M01 A2999 RMK AO1 LTG DSNT S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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