May

[FoothillsNC]

The 4/9 event proved that already with my area getting nailed twice with hail greater than 1.5"; something that I have never seen in my life until this year. We had it coming though, given the evolution of the pattern. April was, as most of us expected, a very active month with lots of wind, hail, historical flooding, and widespread strong tornadoes and now May will take over providing us those opportunities for several MCS to travel down toward the Southeast from the OV to further continue the active period. I'll take whatever rain I can get for my area, so as long as it doesn't get out of hand to where flooding becomes a consistent issue.

Tomorrow ought to be an interesting day with the vort max crossing into our region throughout the day with the warm front in place along the Carolinas and northwestward across the OV. If we can get enough warming going on for the early part of the day, convection shouldn't take long to pop assuming we stay clear of any cloud cover. The hail has my concern the most since these storms will form in a fashion that allows for it to become rather large, aside from any strong gusty winds accompanying the cells/bowing segments. We'll have to keep a close eye on radar during the afternoon to see. I've been itching to get back into the typical afternoon stormy weather.

thats what I'm ecstatic about. Its been several years since I've had anything remotely similar to typical afternoon daily convection and the setup we have evolving is just the ticket, including the usually missed areas around Upstate to here. An upper low parked to our west and a block in central Canada is pretty good news and has been the harbinger of good precip patterns, area-wide. Of course, the exact placement will mean everything, if its too far east, it will actually hurt the lee of the Apps, so hopefully that doesn't happen. The good news is we have a few days of MCC development , which the GFS showed a week ago, and then we get into the southerly flow regime, which will bring in sticky tropical air and daily downpours. The one interesting part you mentioned is the flooding. I don't think I've ever experienced any widespread flooding around here, other than the supercell that becomes stationary. I'm not even sure how it could flood here other than that. I know GA can get into good sw flow patterns and stalled fronts, and the eastern sections too, along with a big tropical hit, but I wonder what it would take to make a flood event in this region of the lee. We're almost perfectly placed to avoid it. Fronts will pick up speed/momentum to just settle east of here (not talking CLT really-- mostly just west of there) Or they set up from the Apps west. I know floods have happened before in the foothills , piedmont mountains but right here I think it would be a really unusual set of circumstances to make it rain that hard for so long. I'll never forget last Sept. the official HPC map of 9" of rain centered right over Cleveland County, and we got a quarter inch. Just 24 hours from the forecast base time.

[Gastonwxman]

thats what I'm ecstatic about. Its been several years since I've had anything remotely similar to typical afternoon daily convection and the setup we have evolving is just the ticket, including the usually missed areas around Upstate to here. An upper low parked to our west and a block in central Canada is pretty good news and has been the harbinger of good precip patterns, area-wide. Of course, the exact placement will mean everything, if its too far east, it will actually hurt the lee of the Apps, so hopefully that doesn't happen. The good news is we have a few days of MCC development , which the GFS showed a week ago, and then we get into the southerly flow regime, which will bring in sticky tropical air and daily downpours. The one interesting part you mentioned is the flooding. I don't think I've ever experienced any widespread flooding around here, other than the supercell that becomes stationary. I'm not even sure how it could flood here other than that. I know GA can get into good sw flow patterns and stalled fronts, and the eastern sections too, along with a big tropical hit, but I wonder what it would take to make a flood event in this region of the lee. We're almost perfectly placed to avoid it. Fronts will pick up speed/momentum to just settle east of here (not talking CLT really-- mostly just west of there) Or they set up from the Apps west. I know floods have happened before in the foothills , piedmont mountains but right here I think it would be a really unusual set of circumstances to make it rain that hard for so long. I'll never forget last Sept. the official HPC map of 9" of rain centered right over Cleveland County, and we got a quarter inch. Just 24 hours from the forecast base time.

I remember that as well. There was a lot of talk about that event, which I will admit I was riled up about finally seeing some rain but the 9" did strike me as bizarre, since as you stated, it's tough to get a flood event here. I guess what I meant to say earlier is that given how certain spots across the piedmont are, enough heavy rain from storms going over the same areas at every opportunity (especially on a daily basis) could cause some flooding issues for those beside the creeks/rivers. Where I'm located, it's not so much the flooding but rather it's the trees around my house since they've been taking beatings from previous strong wind/hail events. The pine that sits beside my house has been leaning lately toward the backyard, which I'm afraid may end up falling one day with the dog fenced up and she has the tendency to stay in her house, which sits underneath. The oaks surrounding it have several large branches that are half-snapped or just barely hanging on, and those alone are bad enough. Hopefully they'll hang on longer until I get a chainsaw in my possession, which at that point a lot of work is going to have to be done.

[Gastonwxman]

Per latest guidance, the wind and hail threats have now been elevated some due to indication of increased instability, decent mid lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear and a strengthening LLJ. The greatest threat appears to be mostly centered over the Carolinas, particularly from the NC Apps through central SC. Winds could exceed 60-65mph and hail 2+ inches in the more favorable spots where dynamics are strongest and also spells for a few possible spin ups of tornadoes with such directional and speed shear present as well. The convective mode should be in the form of a QLCS as the storms organize and head southward through the latter of the afternoon and evening hours.

Dewpoint Temps 4pm

SBCAPE values 4pm

[buckeyefan1]

Did you not get hit with the mid April hail storms (or any type) at that period? Anyway, if you were here in the 90's you'd probably remember them. In May and June especially during a good chunk of the early and mid 90's, the best storms I've ever seen swept out of the mtns and grew in intensity..I can't say if they made it to CAE though, but generally there were pretty big MCS events for a large area. I always look back on fond memories of the early and mid 90s as being the best period of nw storms for this county...had some tremendous humdinger storms with the works, lightning, winds and hail and inches of rain at a time. I miss those events.

The mid April storms were well to my north. I moved to CAE in 88-89 and remember it used to rain almost every day, (even if it was just a brief downpour) and at least once a week there would be a nice storm with deep rolling thunder and heavy rain. I have missed those days this past decade or so

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH

VALLEY...SRN TO CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS

AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX...

...OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY

WITH NNWLY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SRN TO CNTRL

APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CAROLINAS. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A

SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG

WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM

INITIATION FROM ERN KY SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN

THE LOWER 60S F SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO

DEVELOP WHICH ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN NC AND CNTRL SC AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW

MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER

SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND

8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT

FOR LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO LOCALLY ENHANCED

INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL

STONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY

ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF LINE-SEGMENTS BECOME THE FAVORED STORM

MODE. AT THIS POINT...MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE

WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE GFS APPEARS

REASONABLE AND HAVE CONTINUED AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE IN

WRN NC AND CNTRL SC WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS

FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST.

[FoothillsNC]

The Euro has the closed low all in one piece and coming to a stall over the Southeast for the next 10 days, as ridging in Canada keeps all the flow away from it. Thats a setup for very soggy conditions over the Southeast. The GFS takes the first system out this weekend but replaces it with another closed low, in effect about the same thing. Either way, the weekend should be wet, and maybe much of next week, depending on whether the southeast low gets shunted out or not. The position on ECMWF is perfect for the drought stricken Carolinas to get daily rains. On the east side of the center of circulation close to the Apps, it would eventually be a flood maker I think, again if the ECMWF is right in the slow movement and placement. Its been a while since we've had this scenario . It used to happen about once a Summer or every other Spring/Summer.

[phil882]

Things look pretty interesting today for the Carolinas. Just looking at soundings, we have a nice expansive part of the sounding with strong lapse rates, approaching dry adiabatic. In addition, shear is rather decent for this time of the year across the south, although it doesn't look like we will have enough low level shear to have a very high threat for tornadoes. I agree with SPC's hatched area of hail, as we should get a few nice supercells out of this environment, but we likely won't have sufficient low level shear to bring strong mesocyclones down to the surface.

The hodograph is also fairly impressive, with a distinct horseshoe shape typically favorable for supercells.

[Lookout]

I'll be looking forward to a wet period as it is starting to get dry. Grass has been so green this spring until now where there is a fair amount of brown showing through.

Not sure what to expect here today as eastern ga is going to be setting on the edge of what appears to be the best potential for convection. However, starting to get some cumulus forming now over north ga while sc still looks to be clear. Hope something gets going here.

[shaggy]

I'll be looking forward to a wet period as it is starting to get dry. Grass has been so green this spring until now where there is a fair amount of brown showing through.

Not sure what to expect here today as eastern ga is going to be setting on the edge of what appears to be the best potential for convection. However, starting to get some cumulus forming now over north ga while sc still looks to be clear. Hope something gets going here.

you guys had a really good spring for rain and we did too. The last couple of weeks have been dry with just a few light qpf events. They have removed all pops from this week and now are backing off the pops for Saturday as well. Hopefully the scenario foothills has pointed out comes to pass and we see some really decent rains. Heres what the local NWS office is saying about our extended forecast. It looked good for storms on Saturday but they sure don't seem to think we see much in qpf.

IN THE EXTENDED...BY SATURDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG

SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED

SURFACE LOW WILL INITIALLY PUSH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WAS

WEST OF THE AREA MIDWEEK TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT IT LOOSES SOME OF

ITS PUNCH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT NOT NOT

EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL

DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ON MONDAY MODELS BEGIN TO

DIVERGE WITH SURFACE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A LOW

ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATS WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE

LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN ISSUES WITH TIMING AND

LOCATION...AGAIN CHOSE A MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. EXPECT TEMPS

TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

[kennedy]

I am really shocked how quiet it is here today, just returned from lunch wow it is so stinking hot outdoors..........

[Gastonwxman]

SBCAPE looking impressive in spots. Some areas are above 3000 J/kg. Low-mid level lapse rates are ranging from 7.5 to around 8.0°C. Convection to our northwest has initiated and is on the move southeastward crossing eastern KY per latest radar image.

[eyewall]

SBCAPE looking impressive in spots. Some areas are above 3000 J/kg. Low-mid level lapse rates are ranging from 7.5 to around 8.0°C. Convection to our northwest has initiated and is on the move southeastward crossing eastern KY per latest radar image.

Let the hail damage begin!

[FoothillsNC]

Iwon't be surprised if SPC issues a box soon for western VA , ne TN and much of western /central NC. The vapor and IR imagery shows the strong wave thats cresting the ridge and will slide down from southern Ohio and eastern Ky soon, heading right for the Carolinas. We may get clocked this afternoon and overnight, clear across SC to the coast and maybe as far west as Sav. River Valley as well. Theres a 10 degree difference in dewpoint between GSO and GSP right now..this is the zone storms will track.

[kennedy]

Let the hail damage begin!

Ha,

Nationwide is just now getting out this week to check roof damage from last hail event here that you chased!

[eyewall]

Ha,

Nationwide is just now getting out this week to check roof damage from last hail event here that you chased!

I am hoping your area gets missed this time for that reason. Ironically as well the storms will have a similar motion from NW to SE. That always makes it more difficult for chasing too. I don't think we will see training supercells like that this time though.

[FoothillsNC]

with the new MCC developing in 2 spots, KY and southern ILL, this tell me we're probably going to have an active night southeast of there in ne TN and across much of the central and western Carolinas, stretching across most of SC well after midnight. The water vapor is really lighting up and the low level convergence just east of the Apps is going to be very impressive tonight. Major weather event likely, imo for the regions I mentioned, with isolated tornadoes (5% chance per SPC) and lot of hailers and high winds, heavy rain and repeating events. Reminiscent of mid April event somewhat.

[FoothillsNC]

I am hoping your area gets missed this time for that reason. Ironically as well the storms will have a similar motion from NW to SE. That always makes it more difficult for chasing too. I don't think we will see training supercells like that this time though.

I was just thinking about how the training might occur. Usually in narrow MCS events there is some training right off the mtn chain, so I'm watching for that tonight. Could be just one large bow though, not sure. It looks like there might be 2 MCC events back to back, some may die at the expense of the other, or go over slightly different ground. Would be bad to get hit twice for sure.

[kennedy]

with the new MCC developing in 2 spots, KY and southern ILL, this tell me we're probably going to have an active night southeast of there in ne TN and across much of the central and western Carolinas, stretching across most of SC well after midnight. The water vapor is really lighting up and the low level convergence just east of the Apps is going to be very impressive tonight. Major weather event likely, imo for the regions I mentioned, with isolated tornadoes (5% chance per SPC) and lot of hailers and high winds, heavy rain and repeating events. Reminiscent of mid April event somewhat.

Foothills,

Are you referring to the event that hit RDU or areas south of CLT?

Thanks ! Hope everyone stays safe tonight!

[buckeyefan1]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CAE....

-- Changed Discussion --ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH LI VALUES AROUND -9C/-10C

AND SBCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE

850MB AND A WEAK CAP MAY LIMIT POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND

UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD ROLL SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS

EVENING GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY CORFIDI VECTORS. MODELS CONTINUE TO

ADVERTISE POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SPC

CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

WEATHER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHEST POPS

ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL

INFORMATION INDICATES BEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO

AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN HEAVIER STORMS AND ACROSS THE

PEE DEE REGION.

Hopefully the storms start before 6:30....nothing worse than getting to the ballfield knowing once you get there the bottom will fall out

[FoothillsNC]

Foothills,

Are you referring to the event that hit RDU or areas south of CLT?

Thanks ! Hope everyone stays safe tonight!

these maps are from the SPC todays event. I agree, hope we avoid big hail damage and certainly tornadoes, but everything is coming in showing a pretty significant if not major event late afternoon and overnight .

[windyinnc]

Well it looks as if a watch will be issued shortly for a chunk of NC and SC. Here is the link to the SPC Mesoscale Discussion that was just released.

Mesoscale Discussion 711

[buckeyefan1]

Mesoscale Discussion 711< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NERN TN...WRN AND CNTRL NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101818Z - 101945Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN NC NWWD THROUGH WRN NC...WRN VA INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG FROM ERN TN...WRN VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER EML/CAP FROM IND SEWD THROUGH ERN KY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. RUC PFCS INDICATE VERY LITTLE REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WEAK SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY 50 KT AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS/BOWS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. ..DIAL.. 05/10/2011 ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP... MRX...

[kennedy]

these maps are from the SPC todays event. I agree, hope we avoid big hail damage and certainly tornadoes, but everything is coming in showing a pretty significant if not major event late afternoon and overnight .

Maybe on a positive note it will kill off the cady bugs! I went out here and the humidity will just take your breathe as soon as you walk out. Strange for early May.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we'll have at least a severe thunderstom watch here shortly.

As far as the rainy period starting this weekend, I am not looking forward to it. Sorry, but I hate rainy days. I am already having to cut the grass every weekend as it is, and if it is going to rain for a few days, I wish it would do it during the week instead of the weekend. That's the only time I have to work in the yard.

[HurricaneTracker]

Iwon't be surprised if SPC issues a box soon for western VA , ne TN and much of western /central NC. The vapor and IR imagery shows the strong wave thats cresting the ridge and will slide down from southern Ohio and eastern Ky soon, heading right for the Carolinas. We may get clocked this afternoon and overnight, clear across SC to the coast and maybe as far west as Sav. River Valley as well. Theres a 10 degree difference in dewpoint between GSO and GSP right now..this is the zone storms will track.

What's concerning to me is the lack of upstream convection on any widespread basis. There are a few storms in IL and KY, but it seems the stout mid-level ridge is holding its own. I noticed the recent MD for the Carolina's, and certainly if things get going, they are likely to be strong/severe, but I don't have a lot of confidence in what may come later. The wave appears to be rather subtle on water vapor, and 500mb analysis indicates the vort max is just a few units stronger than the background state, so I don't think this wave is as strong as previously thought.

If upstream convection starts getting rolling in the next 1-2 hours, then I'll hop on board with the "rockin' evening". Until then...

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Maybe on a positive note it will kill off the cady bugs! I went out here and the humidity will just take your breathe as soon as you walk out. Strange for early May.

Well keep in mind that the sun angle this time of year is about the same as it is the first few days in August, so it's not really that unusual for it to be hot and humid this time of year.

[phil882]

What's concerning to me is the lack of upstream convection on any widespread basis. There are a few storms in IL and KY, but it seems the stout mid-level ridge is holding its own. I noticed the recent MD for the Carolina's, and certainly if things get going, they are likely to be strong/severe, but I don't have a lot of confidence in what may come later. The wave appears to be rather subtle on water vapor, and 500mb analysis indicates the vort max is just a few units stronger than the background state, so I don't think this wave is as strong as previously thought.

If upstream convection starts getting rolling in the next 1-2 hours, then I'll hop on board with the "rockin' evening". Until then...

I'm growing skeptical myself. the HRRR had a bunch of convection firing up by 18-19z, and none of that has transpired as of yet. I am out on the NC/SC border trying to see if we can catch some action, but all the CU that has tried to develop thus far is still getting squashed by the CAP. It might not be till later this afternoon, when the convection in KY/TN starts moving in that things really start going.

[WhiteoutWX]

I'm growing skeptical myself. the HRRR had a bunch of convection firing up by 18-19z, and none of that has transpired as of yet. I am out on the NC/SC border trying to see if we can catch some action, but all the CU that has tried to develop thus far is still getting squashed by the CAP. It might not be till later this afternoon, when the convection in KY/TN starts moving in that things really start going.

Getting a little bit of CU here in CLT region, not much but was clear here an hour or so ago. Looking upstream convection looks to really be getting going in KY, looks to drop down towards your area. Also noticing a little uptick in strength on the stuff heading through southwest VA/WV. I think things are going fine just a little delayed.

[Gastonwxman]

Severe thunderstorm watch now issued:

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL

1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF

BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH

SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 268...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BOTH FROM THE W-NW ACROSS

THE APPALACHIANS AND NEARER THE COAST AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME

STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER

SHEAR...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL

WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS INCLUDING A FEW

SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSCALE

DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OF STORMS INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS

AND CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE SEWD THRU THE WATCH.

[phil882]

Getting a little bit of CU here in CLT region, not much but was clear here an hour or so ago. Looking upstream convection looks to really be getting going in KY, looks to drop down towards your area. Also noticing a little uptick in strength on the stuff heading through southwest VA/WV. I think things are going fine just a little delayed.

Yea the CU field right now simply doesn't have much vertical development, indicating we have a decent inversion or cap that is keeping the convecting from popping currently. This should break later this afternoon when the convection over in KY finally shifts southward. The first few cells though seem to be having a little trouble as they move into NC. My team is heading over to Charlotte to get in better position for the stuff expected to develop later this afternoon.

[calculus1]

The sky has clouded up and is kinda gray off to the NW. I can hear the first rumbles of thunder in the distance. Here's hoping that's the first of many more to come... Bring on the rain!