May

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It looks like we are very close to entering a summertime weather pattern, which usually lasts from about May 15th to September 15th here in Georgia. Accuweather shows mostly highs in the 80s and low 90s the next 15 days. We'll probably have less than 10 days of highs in the 70s through Mid September. I think tornado season in the deep south is officially over.

[Isopycnic]

0.22" for the day.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It looks like we are very close to entering a summertime weather pattern, which usually lasts from about May 15th to September 15th here in Georgia. Accuweather shows mostly highs in the 80s and low 90s the next 15 days. We'll probably have less than 10 days of highs in the 70s through Mid September. I think tornado season in the deep south is officially over.

Sure hope so......It's been a tragic Spring for a lot of folks.

[FoothillsNC]

It looks like we are very close to entering a summertime weather pattern, which usually lasts from about May 15th to September 15th here in Georgia. Accuweather shows mostly highs in the 80s and low 90s the next 15 days. We'll probably have less than 10 days of highs in the 70s through Mid September. I think tornado season in the deep south is officially over.

I wouldn't say that the threat of tornadoes is done yet though. If an upper low forms, those are good for weak spin-up tornadoes in any good supercell on the east side of the ULL, atleast here in NC. General nw flow and MCC events also can get severe in May just east of the Apps.

[MountainMarvel]

There's just something about those first Mountain Laurel, and after two mornings of ice and frost (33 yesterday, 35 today), it's nice to see those little white blossoms opening up.

[NavarreDon]

Third May morning in a row with low temps in the 30's......31.6,36.8,38.1 wow! Just some perfect days in the Mountians lately. Highs in the 70's with above average vis. & great sleeping weather at night.

[buckeyefan1]

I wouldn't say that the threat of tornadoes is done yet though. If an upper low forms, those are good for weak spin-up tornadoes in any good supercell on the east side of the ULL, atleast here in NC. General nw flow and MCC events also can get severe in May just east of the Apps.

Day 2 from the SPC.....

...SERN STATES...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ALONG WRN/NRN FRINGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RIBBON OF 1000-1500 J/KG

MLCAPE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS SEWD TO SC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MASS

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INSTIGATE SCATTERED

TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODEST WNWLY...

UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL COUPLE WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD

LAYER TO YIELD STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE DMGG

WINDS/HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/07/2011

[downeastnc]

I wouldn't say that the threat of tornadoes is done yet though. If an upper low forms, those are good for weak spin-up tornadoes in any good supercell on the east side of the ULL, atleast here in NC. General nw flow and MCC events also can get severe in May just east of the Apps.

On average June averages as many tornados as March, April is the month with the most in eastern NC at least. Aug has as many as March and May thanks to the sea breeze and tropical systems, in fact Sept is solidly the second most active month tornado wise in the east thanks to landfalling tropical systems and the early stages of fall.

I have seen some of the best severe weather stretches from mid May to early June here as long as the SE ridge doesnt dominate. Longer days and stronger sun makes for lots of airmass type storms firing on left over boundries and evening MCS are not rare in the upcoming pattern.

[DixieBlizzard]

I hope the "weather-Gods" have mercy on my storm-weary neighbors and that any storms are of no consequence.

Another thought, I am proud that UBL was taken out of commission last week I just hate the timing as the national media has seemed to forgotten the plight of southerners suffering through the aftermath of one of the nation's worst tornado outbreaks. I was afraid this would happen. What are the chances this turd gets caught a few days after the outbreak after being on the "run" the last ten years? (less than 1% I believe). Anyway, don't forget your neighbors in need. There are many throughout the south.

[FoothillsNC]

SPC has this region in a slight risk today, as the backdoor front meets a warm advection pattern near the southern Apps. Hail and high winds with multiclusters are the best risk. Sometimes the nw flow events just east of the mountains are really wicked storms with meso stuff going on. We'll see what develops. The RUC has been showing a weak lee-side low developing this afternoon as well, drifting to near the SC/NC border and into the midlands of SC. By tomorrow and Tuesday the models have several disturbances and more MCC development further west in the Carolinas and much of Georgia.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I just don't see a lot of MCC development in most of AL/GA. I think we stay dry through at least Friday. Boring weather pattern.

[downeastnc]

SPC has this region in a slight risk today, as the backdoor front meets a warm advection pattern near the southern Apps. Hail and high winds with multiclusters are the best risk. Sometimes the nw flow events just east of the mountains are really wicked storms with meso stuff going on. We'll see what develops. The RUC has been showing a weak lee-side low developing this afternoon as well, drifting to near the SC/NC border and into the midlands of SC. By tomorrow and Tuesday the models have several disturbances and more MCC development further west in the Carolinas and much of Georgia.

Reminds me of last year when west of Raleigh there were lots of storms and several really good organized MCC events and here in the east you couldnt buy a severe storm to save your life. Seems like this is gonna be similar to that, which is , going to start bumming me out soon I worked Apr 16th and Apr 28th turned into a meh event here chasing wise I really need to get on a good storm soon.

[FoothillsNC]

Reminds me of last year when west of Raleigh there were lots of storms and several really good organized MCC events and here in the east you couldnt buy a severe storm to save your life. Seems like this is gonna be similar to that, which is , going to start bumming me out soon I worked Apr 16th and Apr 28th turned into a meh event here chasing wise I really need to get on a good storm soon.

Yeah a lot of times the downslope actually enhances convergence in the middle of the Carolinas, esp right around and just north of CLT region, either side of there and it cuts off quickly. It depends on a lot of other factors too, like the height pattern and previous soil wetness. Already though there was one line of showers last night and this morning that swept through VA and northern and eastern NC (don't know if you got any). Eventually the axis probably shifts west the next 3 days, then the big kahoona, the developing Rex block to Omega block, which might be very good for you. Lots of places will turn sultry and wet if the GFS is right, but any slight east adjustment in that ULL placement would make a huge difference. For now, its being amazingly similar for the last few days in its extended range, hopefully it holds. I'd love to see day after day with afternoon thunderstorms and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Looks like the next few days will be quite hot across most of the south. Most cities will hit 90+ sometime over the next 3 days.

[shaggy]

Yeah a lot of times the downslope actually enhances convergence in the middle of the Carolinas, esp right around and just north of CLT region, either side of there and it cuts off quickly. It depends on a lot of other factors too, like the height pattern and previous soil wetness. Already though there was one line of showers last night and this morning that swept through VA and northern and eastern NC (don't know if you got any). Eventually the axis probably shifts west the next 3 days, then the big kahoona, the developing Rex block to Omega block, which might be very good for you. Lots of places will turn sultry and wet if the GFS is right, but any slight east adjustment in that ULL placement would make a huge difference. For now, its being amazingly similar for the last few days in its extended range, hopefully it holds. I'd love to see day after day with afternoon thunderstorms and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's.

Yeah we got a period of decent rain over my house this morning. I was quite surprised to walk out of work in a good heavy shower at 7am. Just the kind of rain the farmers needed even though the totals weren't high it was enough to really wet the ground. I am not so happy that they are reducing our storm chances for Tuesday and have dropped from 40% down to 20%.

[downeastnc]

Yeah a lot of times the downslope actually enhances convergence in the middle of the Carolinas, esp right around and just north of CLT region, either side of there and it cuts off quickly. It depends on a lot of other factors too, like the height pattern and previous soil wetness. Already though there was one line of showers last night and this morning that swept through VA and northern and eastern NC (don't know if you got any). Eventually the axis probably shifts west the next 3 days, then the big kahoona, the developing Rex block to Omega block, which might be very good for you. Lots of places will turn sultry and wet if the GFS is right, but any slight east adjustment in that ULL placement would make a huge difference. For now, its being amazingly similar for the last few days in its extended range, hopefully it holds. I'd love to see day after day with afternoon thunderstorms and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's.

theres nothing like towers going up in the early afternoon, for us we like to see initiation either SW of RAH or south central VA as depending on flow those are the storms that get us.

Already SPC talking you guys up in the 3 day range

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...SERN STATES...

AS LARGE SCALE RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN STATES

TROUGH...HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND CONTRIBUTE TO A

CONCOMITANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE NWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

DIURNALLY-BASED STORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES

CRESTING THE RIDGE...WILL LIKELY FORM VCNTY A BACKDOOR FRONT

EXPECTED TO LAY FROM SC NWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WEAK WNW

LLJ BRANCH FEEDING THE STORMS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY STEEP

LAPSE RATE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED KINEMATIC

SET-UP...AT LEAST ISOLD ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS

WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[Gastonwxman]

We may need to start watching what happens for tomorrow as the approaching MCS is expected to make its way southeastward toward the Southeast during Tuesday with the ridge still staying in place to the west. Models are beginning to show an increase threat of potential severe weather across the Carolinas as the system cuts through during the afternoon/evening hours with an increasingly destabilizing airmass ahead. The flow aloft (particularly the 5H) appears to be on the order of at least 40 kts. with moderate instability in place (SBCAPE values at least 1000 and beyond). The combination of daytime heating and support from the system should cause the storms to develop from parts of KY through the Carolinas during the day and would also not rule out parts of GA seeing some action as well. Boundary placement looks favorable for decent coverage of convection for it's located along the SRV. Dewpoints appear to range from the mid 60s to around 70; perhaps the low 70s in spots. Given the nature of the dynamics at this point, this could also mean the potential for a few supercells to develop. Strong gusty winds and large hail should be the main threats to look for in this case though.

http://gwxmanblog.bl...ble-active.html

Btw, the images below are from a program called F5 (free version). Will remove if necessary.

[shaggy]

Local NWS for me is shifting the focus more westward and downplaying our chances here in eastern NC. Sounds like you guys out west are sittin pretty good for a shot at storms come Tuesday.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE

CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE EVENING...MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND DRIER

OVER THE CWA WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY REMAINING W/SW OF THE AREA.

MADE NO SIG CHANGES TO POPS KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE OVER

THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

[DaculaWeather]

Btw, the images below are from a program called F5 (free version). Will remove if necessary.

I've got that on my laptop but never use it. But I like those maps. I guess I'd better go look again!

[buckeyefan1]

I got a brief sprinkle during the night that put .08 in the bucket

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VLY TO THE SE

ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN

PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN PLAINS...

...MIDWEST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...

MODELS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING A CONSISTENT MESSAGE IN MAINTAINING A

RIDGE-TOPPING... CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSE /CURRENT MCS OVER ERN

DAKOTAS/ SEWD INTO THE OH VLY BY 12Z TUE AND INTO THE SRN

APPALACHIANS AND SERN COASTAL STATES DURING TUESDAY PEAK HEATING.

THIS WILL AUGMENT AN ALREADY ENHANCED BELT OF WNW FLOW ALOFT /H5 40+

KTS/. TSTMS WILL READILY FORM ALONG FRINGE OF THE EML/FRONT AS

HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT SPREADS SEWD TUESDAY AFTN WITH

THREATS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS. DMGG

WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES CAN BE

EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY FROM UPSTATE SC/WRN NC TO THE COASTAL

PLAINS.

[eyewall]

Check out the updated Day 2 for SC tomorrow. 30% hail hatched and a few tors possible.

[HurricaneTracker]

Check out the updated Day 2 for SC tomorrow. 30% hail hatched and a few tors possible.

Based on the strength of the EML (with mid-level lapse rates at or above 7), and forecast CAPE values between 1000-2000 J, my guess is hail should be the primary threat.

[eyewall]

Based on the strength of the EML (with mid-level lapse rates at or above 7), and forecast CAPE values between 1000-2000 J, my guess is hail should be the primary threat.

I am thinking the same thing. Tornadoes would be around 5-10% tomorrow.

[buckeyefan1]

Check out the updated Day 2 for SC tomorrow. 30% hail hatched and a few tors possible.

Day 2

...PORTIONS OH VALLEY TO SRN ATLANTIC COAST...

ZONE OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR THREAT IS FCST INVOF

WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY

PARALLEL TO MID-UPPER LEVEL NWLYS DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE ALOFT. ONE

OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STG TO MRGL SVR CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT

START OF PERIOD ALONG AND N OF FRONT FROM OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS. RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR NEWER

DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON WILL YIELD PRIMARY

SVR THREAT...WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. PRE-STORM AIR

MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL HEAT FAVORABLY THROUGH

MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS

COMMONLY MID-UPPER 60S F...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT RELATED TO

EML AIR ADVECTED AROUND MID-UPPER RIDGE...WILL YIELD STG DEEP-LAYER

INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS BY 10/21Z SUGGEST

2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY S OF FRONT FROM KY-SC.

ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY BE WEAK OVER MOST OF AREA...EFFECTIVE SHEAR

AND SRH ALONG FRONT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW

TORNADOES...AS WELL AS BOWS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. HISTORICAL

ANALOGS AND HAIL-MODEL RESULTS WITH FCST SOUNDINGS...GIVEN PRESENCE

OF SUCH LARGE BUOYANCY WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE

SHEAR...SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL SHOULD OCCUR IN SOME

LOCALES.

[NCSNOW]

Looks like alot of potential coming up this weekend into early next week for some good rains. I'm liking how the growing season has started off so far IMBY. Hopefully the trend will continue.

CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD POSSIBLY SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL NC THIS

WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A CLOSED...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS FROM

MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES CENTRAL NC IN

A FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE/VERTICAL LIFT. IN

ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR SW AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED

OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW

REGIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND

POSSIBLY OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. SINCE WE

ARE DEALING WITH DAYS 5-7...WILL LIMIT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE (50

PERCENT) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MONDAY. IF MODEL

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AN

ADDITIONAL 20-30 PERCENT.

[FoothillsNC]

Day 2

ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY BE WEAK OVER MOST OF AREA...EFFECTIVE SHEAR

AND SRH ALONG FRONT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW

TORNADOES...AS WELL AS BOWS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. HISTORICAL

ANALOGS AND HAIL-MODEL RESULTS WITH FCST SOUNDINGS...GIVEN PRESENCE

OF SUCH LARGE BUOYANCY WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE

SHEAR...SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL SHOULD OCCUR IN SOME

LOCALES.

its interesting they make mention of analogs and history from nw flow storms. The best T-storms I've ever seen hit this county were always the nw flow ones. The very few where the setup is for them not to minor out in downslope flow, other factors enhance them. This is probably that "other" set, meaning watch out for high winds somewhere in the lee if a large bowing line can form just on the mountain crest. Similar to what happened this morning MCC in southern Minnesota.

Looks like alot of potential coming up this weekend into early next week for some good rains. I'm liking how the growing season has started off so far IMBY. Hopefully the trend will continue.

same here. Everything is about perfect. I'm hoping we keep the trend going into the Summer, but only time will tell. I'm leaning this year will be different for my area especially. The long range and much advertised wet pattern sure has me excited and hopeful. The GFS led the way nearly a week ago in its 16 days progs for a few days and now the ECMWF joins it, but it has off runs where it loses it. Bottom line is synoptically, blocking in Canada seems to always deliver the goods for us. It can still setup in a fashion that won't be too big of a deal, or it can actually trend even wetter. I wouldn't pay too much mind to the actual QPF charts, even though theres some spots of 5" in NC. If the upper low goes at the speed the GFS has or if you take a blend of Euro and GFS, which may be the most likely course at this range, then we'll end up with a very rainy pattern starting this weekend. Many spots would easily get 2 months worth of rain and some areas closer to the moutains (or on the east side of the circulation--wherever that is ) could get more than that. Needless to say everyone would get some rain in the eastern half of the country thats close to the circulation and under the high humidity. I'm looking forward to those days where the cumulus builds high by noon and several rounds of showers and storms get you during the day. Its possible the ULL hangs around longer than a week, which might mean too much of a good thing, but first things first.

[buckeyefan1]

its interesting they make mention of analogs and history from nw flow storms. The best T-storms I've ever seen hit this county were always the nw flow ones. The very few where the setup is for them not to minor out in downslope flow, other factors enhance them. This is probably that "other" set, meaning watch out for high winds somewhere in the lee if a large bowing line can form just on the mountain crest. Similar to what happened this morning MCC in southern Minnesota.

It could be the fact that I have chronic CRS in my old age, but I'm not sure I have experienced any memorable thunderstorms that occur during a nw flow here in CAE.

[UNCCmetgrad]

its interesting they make mention of analogs and history from nw flow storms. The best T-storms I've ever seen hit this county were always the nw flow ones. The very few where the setup is for them not to minor out in downslope flow, other factors enhance them. This is probably that "other" set, meaning watch out for high winds somewhere in the lee if a large bowing line can form just on the mountain crest. Similar to what happened this morning MCC in southern Minnesota.

same here. Everything is about perfect. I'm hoping we keep the trend going into the Summer, but only time will tell. I'm leaning this year will be different for my area especially. The long range and much advertised wet pattern sure has me excited and hopeful. The GFS led the way nearly a week ago in its 16 days progs for a few days and now the ECMWF joins it, but it has off runs where it loses it. Bottom line is synoptically, blocking in Canada seems to always deliver the goods for us. It can still setup in a fashion that won't be too big of a deal, or it can actually trend even wetter. I wouldn't pay too much mind to the actual QPF charts, even though theres some spots of 5" in NC. If the upper low goes at the speed the GFS has or if you take a blend of Euro and GFS, which may be the most likely course at this range, then we'll end up with a very rainy pattern starting this weekend. Many spots would easily get 2 months worth of rain and some areas closer to the moutains (or on the east side of the circulation--wherever that is ) could get more than that. Needless to say everyone would get some rain in the eastern half of the country thats close to the circulation and under the high humidity. I'm looking forward to those days where the cumulus builds high by noon and several rounds of showers and storms get you during the day. Its possible the ULL hangs around longer than a week, which might mean too much of a good thing, but first things first.

I'm also cautiously optimistic about this upcoming summer. After studying the drought monitor I am thinking the ridge should set up in the southern plains for a good part of this summer where a very large portion of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and western Louisiana are already experiencing extreme drought conditions or worse. This should place us in an overall weakness between the southern plains ridge and the Bermuda High allowing for more widespread daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage than what we have seem the last few years. It could also place us in a favorable position to get MCCs as they travel from the plains through the Ohio Valley , and then possibly into the southeast. Of course this is all just speculation on my part at this time.

[FoothillsNC]

It could be the fact that I have chronic CRS in my old age, but I'm not sure I have experienced any memorable thunderstorms that occur during a nw flow here in CAE.

Did you not get hit with the mid April hail storms (or any type) at that period? Anyway, if you were here in the 90's you'd probably remember them. In May and June especially during a good chunk of the early and mid 90's, the best storms I've ever seen swept out of the mtns and grew in intensity..I can't say if they made it to CAE though, but generally there were pretty big MCS events for a large area. I always look back on fond memories of the early and mid 90s as being the best period of nw storms for this county...had some tremendous humdinger storms with the works, lightning, winds and hail and inches of rain at a time. I miss those events.

I'm also cautiously optimistic about this upcoming summer. After studying the drought monitor I am thinking the ridge should set up in the southern plains for a good part of this summer where a very large portion of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and western Louisiana are already experiencing extreme drought conditions or worse. This should place us in an overall weakness between the southern plains ridge and the Bermuda High allowing for more widespread daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage than what we have seem the last few years. It could also place us in a favorable position to get MCCs as they travel from the plains through the Ohio Valley , and then possibly into the southeast. Of course this is all just speculation on my part at this time.

I think you hit it. The June pattern esp. may lead that way, but honestly I hope after that the nw flow ends as heights are so high here that I get skipped every single time and the low level convergence rebuilds just east of here, just like the last few Summers. I think we stand a good shot at traditional Summer Bermuda ridging in July and August, just seeing how the AO is going and how the pattern and La Nina are playing out so far. A "traditional" Summer would be fine by me. I feel for Texas and the Southwest. Its getting bad now and to go into Summer with so little rain is just bad news on all fronts. One interesting tidbit I forgot to mention on the recent storms here in this county. It was just wild when I cut up the downed trees, esp. the pines in various parts of the county. I did a few in the middle section near where the F0 hit, the tree rings looked about average there, but seen a def. lack of rain around 06 and 07, but the ones I cut up around the southern end of the county recently showed exactly what the actual rain record shows...from about 99 , on, the rings are so tight you could hardly read them. It sure fits the pattern of rain in the upper sections above highway 74 in the Summers during the last 12 years (and lack thereof in this end.) I always think thats the most surefire truth ..its nature's memory in a permanent record, and proof that pre-99, all was fine.

[Gastonwxman]

Agree with the above. I love the way this is shaping up for us that have been missing out on the rain and storms from previous years. I can remember the days where we go for 2-4 weeks without anything, only to get a passing shower as a small bit of relief from the heat and such. This is why I typically enjoy seeing these NW flow setups. You can really get some of the more significant storms to come through here, especially for the folks sitting in the right spot to receive the tremendous rainfall that accompanies most of the individual storms. As much as I love getting to see plenty of severe wx action, I could do without the threat for some of these storms to become nasty hailers as they always seem to be around here. The 4/9 event proved that already with my area getting nailed twice with hail greater than 1.5"; something that I have never seen in my life until this year. We had it coming though, given the evolution of the pattern. April was, as most of us expected, a very active month with lots of wind, hail, historical flooding, and widespread strong tornadoes and now May will take over providing us those opportunities for several MCS to travel down toward the Southeast from the OV to further continue the active period. I'll take whatever rain I can get for my area, so as long as it doesn't get out of hand to where flooding becomes a consistent issue.

Tomorrow ought to be an interesting day with the vort max crossing into our region throughout the day with the warm front in place along the Carolinas and northwestward across the OV. If we can get enough warming going on for the early part of the day, convection shouldn't take long to pop assuming we stay clear of any cloud cover. The hail has my concern the most since these storms will form in a fashion that allows for it to become rather large, aside from any strong gusty winds accompanying the cells/bowing segments. We'll have to keep a close eye on radar during the afternoon to see. I've been itching to get back into the typical afternoon stormy weather.