mikepie Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 FFC's latest graphicast says "severe thunderstorms likely" in N. Georgia Thursday afternoon. Hail, Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes are listed as the hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hey guys, I'm a bit of a newbie on the FFC thing. What is the website where I can view it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hey guys, I'm a bit of a newbie on the FFC thing. What is the website where I can view it? Here you go: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I don't think this heat wave will be as bad as most we're used to, talking about Carolinas Ga and Alabama. There will be a lot of east and southeasterly flow from the start, at the surface. The GFS is adamant on a lot of low level moisture hanging around, and a weak se flow for the region, so daily cumulus and typical afternoon convection probably will form. The more I think about it, the more it looks like a typical afternoon setup, just hotter than normal, but probably typical 30% pops many areas. Also, the front is going to stall in the piedmont starting Friday and probably be a weak focus through the weekend, and it actually has good rain rates and a max in much of eastern GA and western SC starting tomorrow night. Until about Monday when surface high strengthens in western NC piedmont, so that woiuld make it harder to break the cap, but a few folks are probably going to get some daily afternoon storms, atleast its not a strong downslope flow and west /nw wind, like at first I thought it could be. Hope so. If we can keep 30% chances that would help Even if you don't get hit by any rain you still have a shot to catch the outflow and get a cooling breeze.Need to stay away from the WNW flow that heats the air and really runs our temps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Here you go: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/ Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 So for tomorrow in our area, will these thunderstorms be forming into a squall line or will they still be in individual cells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 So for tomorrow in our area, will these thunderstorms be forming into a squall line or will they still be in individual cells? From the SPC Day 2 discussion found here. "OVERALL...DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WITH STRONGER BOW STRUCTURES..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 From the SPC Day 2 discussion found here. "OVERALL...DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WITH STRONGER BOW STRUCTURES..." Wow, I completely missed that. Thanks for pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow, I completely missed that. Thanks for pointing that out. Its fine. Thats what this forum is for! Ask questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wilkesboro, NC Funnel Cloud http://ulocal.wxii12.com/_Wilkesboro2-5-24-11jpg/photo/13982966/51585.html?enlarge=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Today's outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 So for tomorrow in our area, will these thunderstorms be forming into a squall line or will they still be in individual cells? It will be more of a hybrid setup, according to FFC, not enough for a major QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) but due to the increased shear, more volatile storms than we would have in your normal pulse or popup type environment. I think what we'll end up seeing is a MCS type system pass somewhere over Georgia with individual storms scattered elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 977< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL/SOUTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261256Z - 261430Z A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAY INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST TN. CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH. WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE...A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL/EAST-CENTRAL TN HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONTINUED GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A HEATING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO A SPATIAL/INTENSITY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA/EASTERN TN. THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF A VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS /2200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AL INTO TN EXPECTED TO MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME INTO MIDDAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INITIALLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT A BOW ECHO/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 05/26/2011 ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 977< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL/SOUTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261256Z - 261430Z A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAY INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST TN. CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH. WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE...A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL/EAST-CENTRAL TN HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONTINUED GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A HEATING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO A SPATIAL/INTENSITY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA/EASTERN TN. THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF A VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS /2200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AL INTO TN EXPECTED TO MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME INTO MIDDAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INITIALLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT A BOW ECHO/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 05/26/2011 ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... Sort of interesting how the wording and the thoughts have changed over the last 24 hours. Seems our ULL to the north is going to flex it's muscle until it exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I know I'm being pessimistic but I have a feeling that the best will set up east of me. It seems that for the past month I've been screwed by timing. The disturbance pass over me in the morning and fire up to the east as the day heats up. I hope I'm wrong but in case I'm right I've finally gotten around to hooking my rain barrel up. I'm tired of running the sprinkler on my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 920 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS GAC015-045-047-055-057-067-083-085-111-115-123-129-143-187-213- 223-227-233-281-291-295-311-313-262200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0379.110526T1420Z-110526T2200Z/ GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE COBB DADE DAWSON FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON HARALSON LUMPKIN MURRAY PAULDING PICKENS POLK TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD $$ Severe T-storm watch in effect for the area highlighted in the MD. This is my watch issued by the NWS. Also there is a tornado warned cell in Tennessee now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I know I'm being pessimistic but I have a feeling that the best will set up east of me. It seems that for the past month I've been screwed by timing. The disturbance pass over me in the morning and fire up to the east as the day heats up. I hope I'm wrong but in case I'm right I've finally gotten around to hooking my rain barrel up. I'm tired of running the sprinkler on my garden. Yeah, I'm not optimistic either. Squall lines don't seem to drop much rain on me, but they don't mind dragging tornados through. I'd much rather see a slow moving front, or even better some pop up boomers that rain themselves out over head. I've been wind rich lately...can do without the wind until winter cads, just want lots of water. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Yeah, I'm not optimistic either. Squall lines don't seem to drop much rain on me, but they don't mind dragging tornados through. I'd much rather see a slow moving front, or even better some pop up boomers that rain themselves out over head. I've been wind rich lately...can do without the wind until winter cads, just want lots of water. T What gets me lately is how breezy it is in the treetops but it can't seem to make it to the ground. I noticed that Sunday and last night. I've got some rather old trees around and the wind is constant around 100 feet but nothing at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I know I'm being pessimistic but I have a feeling that the best will set up east of me. It seems that for the past month I've been screwed by timing. The disturbance pass over me in the morning and fire up to the east as the day heats up. I hope I'm wrong but in case I'm right I've finally gotten around to hooking my rain barrel up. I'm tired of running the sprinkler on my garden. this one is an extremely slow mover, so GA should get the brunt of it today IMO. Can't rule out another fire up tomorrow in GA and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The best forcing in the western carolinas will be from 5PM into early morning hours. There will probably be quite a few strong to severe storms around this evening. I think tomorrow will be more of the heavy shower variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Sun has been out for an hour now, things are really getting sticky and unstable out here in Atlanta. Looking forward to some much needed rains for my garden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Right around 80oF here. Looks like showers are developing in Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The drought in Georgia continues to worsen. I'm looking at the U.S. Drought Monitor Index and it amazes me that the only areas in the entire country in a drought are in the southern half of the U.S. Is it just me or does it seem like the south is more prone to drought than areas up north ? I hardly ever hear of a severe or extreme drought in the northeast. Whenever you hear about areas in a drought it's usually areas in the south or the west. I can understand areas in the west having droughts but for the southeast to be near 2 major bodies of warm water, it puzzles me why we're always in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My thoughts about the severe weather threat today, along with the potential heat wave next week! http://www.avlweatherblog.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Storms starting to go in N. Georgia. The one in Gordon County looks pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My thoughts about the severe weather threat today, along with the potential heat wave next week! http://www.avlweatherblog.com/ Wow great blog Phil! Very well laid out and nice graphics! Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 My thoughts about the severe weather threat today, along with the potential heat wave next week! http://www.avlweatherblog.com/ nice stuff, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christine Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Now under a severe thunderstorm warning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow great blog Phil! Very well laid out and nice graphics! Keep it up! Thanks! We are trying to get some more people following... there is both a Twitter Account and a Facebook Page. Shameless plug I know, but we are looking to increase viewership in the Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Well, even though it's going to be hot next week it looks like lows will be near 60 so at least we'll get a break from the heat at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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