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LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

I don't think this heat wave will be as bad as most we're used to, talking about Carolinas Ga and Alabama. There will be a lot of east and southeasterly flow from the start, at the surface. The GFS is adamant on a lot of low level moisture hanging around, and a weak se flow for the region, so daily cumulus and typical afternoon convection probably will form. The more I think about it, the more it looks like a typical afternoon setup, just hotter than normal, but probably typical 30% pops many areas. Also, the front is going to stall in the piedmont starting Friday and probably be a weak focus through the weekend, and it actually has good rain rates and a max in much of eastern GA and western SC starting tomorrow night. Until about Monday when surface high strengthens in western NC piedmont, so that woiuld make it harder to break the cap, but a few folks are probably going to get some daily afternoon storms, atleast its not a strong downslope flow and west /nw wind, like at first I thought it could be.

Hope so.

If we can keep 30% chances that would help Even if you don't get hit by any rain you still have a shot to catch the outflow and get a cooling breeze.Need to stay away from the WNW flow that heats the air and really runs our temps up.

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jrips27

jrips27

Posted
Posted

So for tomorrow in our area, will these thunderstorms be forming into a squall line or will they still be in individual cells?

From the SPC Day 2 discussion found here.

"OVERALL...DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT SHOULD

ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY

SEVERE CONCERN WITH STRONGER BOW STRUCTURES..."

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Christine

Christine

Posted
Posted

From the SPC Day 2 discussion found here.

"OVERALL...DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT SHOULD

ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY

SEVERE CONCERN WITH STRONGER BOW STRUCTURES..."

Wow, I completely missed that. Thanks for pointing that out.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

So for tomorrow in our area, will these thunderstorms be forming into a squall line or will they still be in individual cells?

It will be more of a hybrid setup, according to FFC, not enough for a major QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) but due to the increased shear, more volatile storms than we would have in your normal pulse or popup type environment. I think what we'll end up seeing is a MCS type system pass somewhere over Georgia with individual storms scattered elsewhere.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Mesoscale Discussion 977< Previous MD mcd0977.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL/SOUTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261256Z - 261430Z A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAY INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST TN. CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH. WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE...A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL/EAST-CENTRAL TN HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONTINUED GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A HEATING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO A SPATIAL/INTENSITY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA/EASTERN TN. THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF A VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS /2200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AL INTO TN EXPECTED TO MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME INTO MIDDAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INITIALLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT A BOW ECHO/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 05/26/2011 ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted

Mesoscale Discussion 977< Previous MD mcd0977.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL/SOUTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261256Z - 261430Z A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAY INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST TN. CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH. WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE...A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL/EAST-CENTRAL TN HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONTINUED GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A HEATING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO A SPATIAL/INTENSITY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA/EASTERN TN. THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF A VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS /2200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AL INTO TN EXPECTED TO MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME INTO MIDDAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INITIALLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT A BOW ECHO/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 05/26/2011 ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

Sort of interesting how the wording and the thoughts have changed over the last 24 hours. Seems our ULL to the north is going to flex it's muscle until it exits stage right.

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EmersonGA

EmersonGA

Posted
Posted

I know I'm being pessimistic but I have a feeling that the best will set up east of me. It seems that for the past month I've been screwed by timing. The disturbance pass over me in the morning and fire up to the east as the day heats up. I hope I'm wrong but in case I'm right I've finally gotten around to hooking my rain barrel up. I'm tired of running the sprinkler on my garden.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 920 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS GAC015-045-047-055-057-067-083-085-111-115-123-129-143-187-213- 223-227-233-281-291-295-311-313-262200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0379.110526T1420Z-110526T2200Z/ GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE COBB DADE DAWSON FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON HARALSON LUMPKIN MURRAY PAULDING PICKENS POLK TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD $$

Severe T-storm watch in effect for the area highlighted in the MD. This is my watch issued by the NWS. Also there is a tornado warned cell in Tennessee now.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I know I'm being pessimistic but I have a feeling that the best will set up east of me. It seems that for the past month I've been screwed by timing. The disturbance pass over me in the morning and fire up to the east as the day heats up. I hope I'm wrong but in case I'm right I've finally gotten around to hooking my rain barrel up. I'm tired of running the sprinkler on my garden.

Yeah, I'm not optimistic either. Squall lines don't seem to drop much rain on me, but they don't mind dragging tornados through. I'd much rather see a slow moving front, or even better some pop up boomers that rain themselves out over head. I've been wind rich lately...can do without the wind until winter cads, just want lots of water. T

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EmersonGA

EmersonGA

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I'm not optimistic either. Squall lines don't seem to drop much rain on me, but they don't mind dragging tornados through. I'd much rather see a slow moving front, or even better some pop up boomers that rain themselves out over head. I've been wind rich lately...can do without the wind until winter cads, just want lots of water. T

What gets me lately is how breezy it is in the treetops but it can't seem to make it to the ground. I noticed that Sunday and last night. I've got some rather old trees around and the wind is constant around 100 feet but nothing at ground level.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I know I'm being pessimistic but I have a feeling that the best will set up east of me. It seems that for the past month I've been screwed by timing. The disturbance pass over me in the morning and fire up to the east as the day heats up. I hope I'm wrong but in case I'm right I've finally gotten around to hooking my rain barrel up. I'm tired of running the sprinkler on my garden.

this one is an extremely slow mover, so GA should get the brunt of it today IMO. Can't rule out another fire up tomorrow in GA and the Carolinas.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

The best forcing in the western carolinas will be from 5PM into early morning hours. There will probably be quite a few strong to severe storms around this evening. I think tomorrow will be more of the heavy shower variety.

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jrips27

jrips27

Posted
Posted

The drought in Georgia continues to worsen. I'm looking at the U.S. Drought Monitor Index and it amazes me that the only areas in the entire country in a drought are in the southern half of the U.S. Is it just me or does it seem like the south is more prone to drought than areas up north ? I hardly ever hear of a severe or extreme drought in the northeast. Whenever you hear about areas in a drought it's usually areas in the south or the west. I can understand areas in the west having droughts but for the southeast to be near 2 major bodies of warm water, it puzzles me why we're always in a drought.

:facepalm:

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