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LithiaWx

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I cannot take this.

Tornado Warning Strike 4

(Wilkes County.)

WILKES COUNTY STRIKE 5

5 Tornado Warnings already....I am going to stay in the basement and not leave. Might as well.

thats pretty amazing. This pattern supports redevelopment and strong shear just east of the Apps right around your area, esp. since theres an outflow boundary each day and the overall flow along that area. How much rain have you accumulated the last 3 days? I'd say just based on watching the radar last few days some areas might be over 5 or 6".

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WILKES COUNTY STRIKE 5

5 Tornado Warnings already....I am going to stay in the basement and not leave. Might as well.

It just doesn't seem to end for you, does it? Reminds me of the time during the late August period where I was hit by 4 severe thunderstorms, 2 of which prompted a tornado warning. The last one was the most dangerous, containing so much CG lightning that one of those bolts managed to reach a part of my house and destroyed the cable box, fry practically everything that was plugged in at the time (except for my computers), and caused a couple of gas leaks. Here's the video showing that. I will NEVER forget the night I caught that on camera. I was inside the house at the time it happened.

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Watching that live footage from the chopper out in Oklahoma made me think back to Alabama. Just unbelievable that we can watch the life cycle of a very strong tornado on live TV. My heart goes out to all those affected :(

OT: I just realized I'm over 1,000 posts here on AmWx

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OK....not familiar with SE forum's thread format, so pardon if this isn't the right thread.

Mark Ellinwood and I chased yesterday, and I've finally got the video up on YouTube, which includes the reported funnel we made, which I reported as a funnel because I "officially" couldn't confirm a touchdown..but I'm 90% convinced it did touch down...it's on the video, toward the end of the clips:

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OK....not familiar with SE forum's thread format, so pardon if this isn't the right thread.

Mark Ellinwood and I chased yesterday, and I've finally got the video up on YouTube, which includes the reported funnel we made, which I reported as a funnel because I "officially" couldn't confirm a touchdown..but I'm 90% convinced it did touch down...it's on the video, toward the end of the clips:

LOL me and Shaggy almost chased those cells but we didnt ugh......love the way you murdered Ahoskie

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It looks like the ECM has finally completely caved into the GFS idea of a big heatwave coming to the East and Apps/MidAtlantic. The GFS has had this idea all along, except maybe 1 run, where the ECMWF had a huge 5 contour deep cutoff, smack dab in the middle of where the core of the heat wave should be. This so far doesn't look like it will be quite as bad as the 2 major ones from last Summer or the one the year before, not yet , but briefly heights get to 594 near eastern Ky and Ohio. This would maximize downslope heating in the Midatlantic and into eastern NC on a couple of days with temps pushing upper 90's maybe near 100 in eastern VA or DC region closest to the core of the heat ridge. Also, deep easterlies will develop for SC and GA region, which usually helps push Atlantic moisture west and may help to build late day cooling storms around the Savannah R. Valley and into NE GA and southwest NC mountain regions with help from orographic lift. Otherwise, the rest of us will bake under high heat, and most will have high dewpoints, except both models paint lower dewpoints in central to southern GA and southern Alabama for a few days, maybe daily mixing down into the 50's on dewpoints, so that wouldn't be so bad down there on heat indicies. Also a weak ULL may develop near southern Fl and work west into the Gulf, so eventually that may be something to watch. I'm sure Texas would welcome it's rain if it developed. The good news is it doesn't last too long, the ridge should work back west by late week with a possible back door type front later on. As with any Summer storm, there will be a few lucky folks who get a storm that can break the cap, and get a tremendous gully washer or super-cell to develop over their area, and since PW's are going to be high and steering winds weak, it would be a welcome gullywasher type rainstorm, but again just localized.

Yea, the euro finally caved in it seems. Both look remarkably similar with regards to the heatwave potential now.

Jason and I went chasing in NE NC yesterday (5/23) and grabbed this cell... we were near Ahoskie when the video was taken:

Great footage! Can't quite tell if it touched down, but certainly a funnel cloud in several instances.

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LOL me and Shaggy almost chased those cells but we didnt ugh......love the way you murdered Ahoskie

Trying to watch a funnel cloud and read the little text on the laptop at the same time in an unfamiliar area... it happens :P

Wish I had gotten the footage that Jason got around 8:25 on the video... best shot of the day right there.

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Hmmm.

This is the SPC Day 2 outlook.

So, is this mostly going to be a wind threat? I'm a bit confused on what they're saying.

Thats the gist of what I got from their discussion. Once again this will really be a shadow of the event we have witnessed out in OK and TX yesterday and what we may likely see later today. That still means we will likely see widespread storms with some becoming severe, but the main threat is not supercells but line-segments, perhaps the result of an MCS or two.

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Yep, here's the 594dm death ridge on the 0z Euro.....

:gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana:

Hottest temp so far was on the 21st when mby reached 102. :devilsmiley: Last year I lost count the number of times mby was above 100 deg, and these past few days sitting around the century mark with more heat on the way is not what I'm looking forward to :(

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I've managed to squeeze out .85 over the last few days with a stray shower or storm here or there. It was much needed rain and still barely puts me over 1.15 for the month. The next week is looking very bleak here in eastern NC and I am sure the drought will start to show its ugly head again soon. NWS starting to talk about it a little more now.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP

FURTHER AS MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN

CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER

AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO EASTERN NC. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL

LIKELY EXPAND AND WORSEN THIS COMING WEEK.

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I've managed to squeeze out .85 over the last few days with a stray shower or storm here or there. It was much needed rain and still barely puts me over 1.15 for the month. The next week is looking very bleak here in eastern NC and I am sure the drought will start to show its ugly head again soon. NWS starting to talk about it a little more now.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP

FURTHER AS MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN

CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER

AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO EASTERN NC. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL

LIKELY EXPAND AND WORSEN THIS COMING WEEK.

yeah,not much rain for anybody in this upcoming pattern. Hopefully everybody gets something with the Fri/Sat system, but the models still don't do much in eastern NC. Next week when the heat dome is around, there will be a few isolated cells that pop up, those can't be forecast at all this far out, but maybe a seabreeze could work in your area as the land heats up during the day. Also, the mountains of GA and NC will probably get daily afternoon storms thanks to how the surface winds will switch from nw to se as the daylight hours go on each day. Anyone who gets a pop-up can really get a good storm, with several inches of rain, with so much instability and high PW, but won't be very many I don't think. Later in the week, the GFS has a front from the Ohio Valley that probably will get central and eastern NC with a derecho type/MCC event maybe.

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Jason and I went chasing in NE NC yesterday (5/23) and grabbed this cell... we were near Ahoskie when the video was taken:

Nice catch! Good work in shooting it too! It was trying especially at the end with that nice RFD cut!

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pretty high dewpoints forecast next week, esp n. Alabama and eastern NC. Low to mid 70's is sticky air. By contrast, its been showing only upper 50's to low 60's dewpoints in southern Alabama.

As much as we hate Heat and Humidity. Keep in mind last year we had continual heat, but it was dry heat and actually makes it worse on the vegetation(Garden). I'll be more uncormfortable, but if the garden has to endure 90+ temps, then it will fare better with high DP's, as oppossed to that dry NW/w flow heat off the mtns like June and most of July last summer.

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pretty high dewpoints forecast next week, esp n. Alabama and eastern NC. Low to mid 70's is sticky air. By contrast, its been showing only upper 50's to low 60's dewpoints in southern Alabama.

As much as we hate Heat and Humidity. Keep in mind last year we had continual heat, but it was dry heat and actually makes it worse on the vegetation(Garden). I'll be more uncormfortable, but if the garden has to endure 90+ temps, then it will fare better with high DP's, as oppossed to that dry NW/w flow heat off the mtns like June and most of July last summer.

Unless it results in thunderstorms it sucks either way IMO :)

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i agree WE all need some rains, My Garden is really taking a beating down here on the Coast, hopefull We'll get alittle Sea Breeze thats trying to form today, but i really doubt it...

:drunk:

in addition a record high temperature of 97 degrees was set at Wilmington NC

yesterday. This breaks the old record of 94 set in 1975.

it's just hot & Dry outside.. :sun:

in a rising & worseing Deficet for rain around here, Only 1.27 for this month....

Current conditions

Pressure29.93 in

Temp, 94.7

Heat index 100

Dew 68

humidity 54%

post-2767-0-19917800-1306350946.jpg

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pretty high dewpoints forecast next week, esp n. Alabama and eastern NC. Low to mid 70's is sticky air. By contrast, its been showing only upper 50's to low 60's dewpoints in southern Alabama.

As much as we hate Heat and Humidity. Keep in mind last year we had continual heat, but it was dry heat and actually makes it worse on the vegetation(Garden). I'll be more uncormfortable, but if the garden has to endure 90+ temps, then it will fare better with high DP's, as oppossed to that dry NW/w flow heat off the mtns like June and most of July last summer.

yeah I know , I'd prefere no downslope, and this one actually looks ok for most of NC and states south and west, but probably some downslope in VA and north. Thats a little unusual compared to previous heatwaves. I remember a few days during the mega heatwave of 2007 I think where my flow mixed out dewpoints into the 40's, nearby sites had not mixed out and dewpoints were 70's. It was pretty wild to watch that happen.

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FFC thinks we might have a severe chance tomorrow:

BETTER CHANCES ARE IN STORE AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH12Z THU. INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION BUT MODELS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE THE HEATING OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN TO REALIZE INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MODELS SEEM TO BE ON THE UPSWING CONCERNING ASSOCIATED SHEAR VALUES WITH 50 KT JET NOW PROGGED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES THU AFTERNOON.THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SIG SEVERE AND TOR VALUES WARRANT SVR INCLUSION IN THE ZONES FOR THE ROUGHLY THE AREA OF THE CURRENT SPC DAY 2.

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FFC thinks we might have a severe chance tomorrow:

BETTER CHANCES ARE IN STORE AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH12Z THU. INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION BUT MODELS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE THE HEATING OF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN TO REALIZE INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...MODELS SEEM TO BE ON THE UPSWING CONCERNING ASSOCIATED SHEAR VALUES WITH 50 KT JET NOW PROGGED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES THU AFTERNOON.THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SIG SEVERE AND TOR VALUES WARRANT SVR INCLUSION IN THE ZONES FOR THE ROUGHLY THE AREA OF THE CURRENT SPC DAY 2.

No tornadoes please.....I'll take all the hail, lightning and derechos I can get though. Max daytime heating for once....

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Our old nemesis the Death Ridge looks more and more likely.

Wonderful.:gun_bandana:

I don't think this heat wave will be as bad as most we're used to, talking about Carolinas Ga and Alabama. There will be a lot of east and southeasterly flow from the start, at the surface. The GFS is adamant on a lot of low level moisture hanging around, and a weak se flow for the region, so daily cumulus and typical afternoon convection probably will form. The more I think about it, the more it looks like a typical afternoon setup, just hotter than normal, but probably typical 30% pops many areas. Also, the front is going to stall in the piedmont starting Friday and probably be a weak focus through the weekend, and it actually has good rain rates and a max in much of eastern GA and western SC starting tomorrow night. Until about Monday when surface high strengthens in western NC piedmont, so that woiuld make it harder to break the cap, but a few folks are probably going to get some daily afternoon storms, atleast its not a strong downslope flow and west /nw wind, like at first I thought it could be.

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