May

[Christine]

Hello everyone.

I just joined today but I've been lurking around here for a good month.

Anyway, I just looked at the 4-8 day outlook for severe weather from the SPC and I was wondering if any of you think that severe weather will be hitting the Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee area later this week?

[NEGa]

Hello everyone.

I just joined today but I've been lurking around here for a good month.

Anyway, I just looked at the 4-8 day outlook for severe weather from the SPC and I was wondering if any of you think that severe weather will be hitting the Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee area later this week?

welcome! what part of n ga are you located in? sadly you picked an awfully quiet time to join LOL - we need some active weather NOW!~!

[Christine]

welcome! what part of n ga are you located in? sadly you picked an awfully quiet time to join LOL - we need some active weather NOW!~!

Thank you. I live in north central Georgia. Gilmer County to be exact.

Yeah, we haven't had any severe weather (here anyway) since the April 27th event. I feel like we may get something the end of this week, but who knows how severe.

[EmersonGA]

Well, the GFS spits out .2" of rain here tonight. I'd be willing to bet good money that I don't see a drop. I've been having to water the gardens which is something I haven't had to do in 3 years. I do have a guaranteed way to make it rain which now that I think about it is why it stopped raining in the first place. I've gotten away from dusting my tomatoes with Sevin. In the past whenever I dusted them it rained that day and thus washed all of the dust away. I've been using BT this year and having gotten a drop of rain. On a side note does anyone know a decent way to keep aphids, whiteflied, etc.. off of potatoes. They are very healthy but I can't keep the bugs off of them.

[shaggy]

Picked up a half inch in a storm this morning that was unexpected! It all fell in about 15 minutes and it was much needed. Now this afternoon is looking more active and i'm barely in the slight risk zone for storms. We really got screwed from that ULL last week and were starting to dry out alot.

[NEGa]

Thank you. I live in north central Georgia. Gilmer County to be exact.

Yeah, we haven't had any severe weather (here anyway) since the April 27th event. I feel like we may get something the end of this week, but who knows how severe.

thats great - we have awesome ga posters. your location is similar, and along a line, of a lot of us now we need something excited for obs

Well, the GFS spits out .2" of rain here tonight. I'd be willing to bet good money that I don't see a drop. I've been having to water the gardens which is something I haven't had to do in 3 years. I do have a guaranteed way to make it rain which now that I think about it is why it stopped raining in the first place. I've gotten away from dusting my tomatoes with Sevin. In the past whenever I dusted them it rained that day and thus washed all of the dust away. I've been using BT this year and having gotten a drop of rain. On a side note does anyone know a decent way to keep aphids, whiteflied, etc.. off of potatoes. They are very healthy but I can't keep the bugs off of them.

its getting very dry here as well - all the storms lately have not been IMBY...lawn is browning up and getting dusty again. sigh - we really need some rain for a lot of n ga.

[FoothillsNC]

the front slated to arrive Friday is looking weaker and weaker each run now. Its getting the boot from the next strong system right behind it, so I don't think much rain will fall in GA and the Carolinas from the first system and probably not with the second one either since its going to be too far north. Maybe early next week that second system will stall or roll down the front side of a strong building ridge, which could help out eastern NC with some wetness at some point, but its too far out to bank out. Many areas of the central/east Carolinas/Eastern/srn GA and southeast Alabama probably won't get any wet weather over the next 10 days. Otherwise, its a case of muggy pop up storms, few and far between, but some increase this weekend on the east side of the Apps, more so on the western side of the Apps though. The ECMWF from a few days ago looks major wrong again..not sure what happened to that model. Its clear there will be a huge ridge where it had a 5 contour cutoff deep trough for several runs. The GFS continues to build a ridge quickly starting in Ala/Ms then expands it so that usually cuts down the storm chances even more the closer you are to it. Pretty boring, but what a heck of run of weather in the Southeast since December, eh?

[snowlover91]

Looks like a good shot at some severe storms for northern half of NC today with the SPC placing it in a slight risk and up to a 30% chance of damaging winds for the northern half of the state. Also instability is quickly ratcheting upwards, now LI of -10 and SBCAPE up to 4000 in parts of the state, while shear is increasing and LCL height lowering. Looks good for central and eastern carolinas for some storms to pop up within the next few hours hopefully. Could definitely use the rain before things dry out for the big ridge next week.

[shaggy]

the front slated to arrive Friday is looking weaker and weaker each run now. Its getting the boot from the next strong system right behind it, so I don't think much rain will fall in GA and the Carolinas from the first system and probably not with the second one either since its going to be too far north. Maybe early next week that second system will stall or roll down the front side of a strong building ridge, which could help out eastern NC with some wetness at some point, but its too far out to bank out. Many areas of the central/east Carolinas/Eastern/srn GA and southeast Alabama probably won't get any wet weather over the next 10 days. Otherwise, its a case of muggy pop up storms, few and far between, but some increase this weekend on the east side of the Apps, more so on the western side of the Apps though. The ECMWF from a few days ago looks major wrong again..not sure what happened to that model. Its clear there will be a huge ridge where it had a 5 contour cutoff deep trough for several runs. The GFS continues to build a ridge quickly starting in Ala/Ms then expands it so that usually cuts down the storm chances even more the closer you are to it. Pretty boring, but what a heck of run of weather in the Southeast since December, eh?

Seeing that makes me even happier we got caught with that surprise thunderstorm this morning. We have been dry the last month and if we hadn't had the rain today and none for the next week or so then we would really have been sliding back into the drought.

[FoothillsNC]

Seeing that makes me even happier we got caught with that surprise thunderstorm this morning. We have been dry the last month and if we hadn't had the rain today and none for the next week or so then we would really have been sliding back into the drought.

yep, to be honest its not looking too good for many of us in GA and the Carolinas. The mountains will probably get some showers late week and weekend, everyone else's rations will be pretty limited though, and right after that its questionable, but the further inland you get the more chances it will get drier and drier, but even for your area if the ULL doesn't roll down the east coast early next week, you'll have to depend on the seabreeze or some kind of scattered afternoon convection. So far though, it would probably favor eastern Va and NC with the best chances, but those aren't too much to get excited about. Unless the GFS is very off on its placement of the developing ridging. There will be a lot of humidity so it will feel like regular Summer but the cap will probably be too strong to break in many places away from good forcing (coast and mtns/Fl beaches). Hope the GFS is wrong or the pattern doesn't hold too long. Its still possible a weak ULL could rotate into the Southeast underneath the building ridge to our north and west which would really change everything, but probably not likely.

[Psalm 148:8]

the front slated to arrive Friday is looking weaker and weaker each run now. Its getting the boot from the next strong system right behind it, so I don't think much rain will fall in GA and the Carolinas from the first system and probably not with the second one either since its going to be too far north. Maybe early next week that second system will stall or roll down the front side of a strong building ridge, which could help out eastern NC with some wetness at some point, but its too far out to bank out. Many areas of the central/east Carolinas/Eastern/srn GA and southeast Alabama probably won't get any wet weather over the next 10 days. Otherwise, its a case of muggy pop up storms, few and far between, but some increase this weekend on the east side of the Apps, more so on the western side of the Apps though. The ECMWF from a few days ago looks major wrong again..not sure what happened to that model. Its clear there will be a huge ridge where it had a 5 contour cutoff deep trough for several runs. The GFS continues to build a ridge quickly starting in Ala/Ms then expands it so that usually cuts down the storm chances even more the closer you are to it. Pretty boring, but what a heck of run of weather in the Southeast since December, eh?

some rain would really be great...getting very dusty here...but want no part of any more severe weather.

[Gastonwxman]

Real nasty thunderstorm crossing the North Wilkesboro area. It's quite a hail producer.

Severe Thunderstorm

Wilkes County, NC

64 dBZ

Severe Hail: 90% Chance

Hail: 100% Chance

Max Hail Size: 2.25"

Top: 46,000 ft.

VIL: 77 kg/m²

EDIT(4:08PM): Storm is continuing to stay intact and has actually strengthened some more. New max size hail indication is now at 3.25" at 71dbz, heading east into the Tobaccoville area.

4:23pm: Looks like it's starting to calm down just a bit with the hail. You folks due east can relax some now. Still a severe storm nonetheless. I might need to watch what's going on near Kingstown in Rutherford county. IF it somehow turns and dives for my area and manages to survive the trip here, things could be a bit stormy later today.

5:25pm: Well I suppose that's died for the most part. Just a leftover shower now just to my north.

[kvegas-wx]

Real nasty thunderstorm crossing the North Wilkesboro area. It's quite a hail producer.

Severe Thunderstorm

Wilkes County, NC

64 dBZ

Severe Hail: 90% Chance

Hail: 100% Chance

Max Hail Size: 2.25"

Top: 46,000 ft.

VIL: 77 kg/m²

Nasty storm a brewin'! Got my attention. 2.25" hail, wow!

[burrel2]

Yea, this month has been absoutley brutal in my back yard. I've recorded 1/10th of inch of rain in the last 4 weeks here. I'm the blue speck in NW SC on this map.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Wow, do I see 0.01" in a tiny area between Columbus and Macon in GA ? That's amazing for a 30 day period.

[FoothillsNC]

What a heck of a run of weather since December ? The weather has been boring for a month already. We're in a very bad drought and it's getting worse by the day. The weather can't get much more boring than this.

very cold winter, lot of snow, very active spring with several historic outbreaks. Sorry it all missed your area. It can't rain forever, and I distinctly remember western GA getting pummelled numerous times the last few years with major, heavy duty big rain events and flooding.

Yea, this month has been absoutley brutal in my back yard. I've recorded 1/10th of inch of rain in the last 4 weeks here. I'm the blue speck in NW SC on this map.

that lil' blue dot has my name on it soon, I'm sure. I have to say I know that feeling all too well. Glad its not me for once, but hope it turns wetter for your area. Its awful to keep missing out on the storms. Wish the weather could offer some good real hope soon.

[LithiaWx]

What a heck of a run of weather since December ? The weather has been boring for a month already. We're in a very bad drought and it's getting worse by the day. The weather can't get much more boring than this.

You are by far the worst poster on the southern forums. Do us ALL a favor and just go away. The weather has been amazing since December....Extreme Severe Weather, Snowstorms, heavy rains, vivid lightning, major wind events, and now an early season heat wave.

You constantly get snippy with the mets on this board. They are an invaluable service to us please stop being an ass.

Edit : Robert already responded but my thoughts still stand. You are now on my ignore list. To put that in perspective I only had one other name on it before you and that's Powerball.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

What a heck of a run of weather since December ? The weather has been boring for a month already. We're in a very bad drought and it's getting worse by the day. The weather can't get much more boring than this.

Let me give you a piece of advice..........you don't treat the Mets on this board with disrespect. If you disagree with something, that's ok...just politely state your reasoning. Robert is a very good forecaster and we will be quick to defend his views.

[wx4life]

Let me give you a piece of advice..........you don't treat the Mets on this board with disrespect. If you disagree with something, that's ok...just politely state your reasoning. Robert is a very good forecaster and we will be quick to defend his views.

Thank you!!If this is going on during the "slow" period of weather,imagine the junk that will be going on in the winter.Actually,I do remember some funtimes this past winter..lol.

Anyway,what a hot day today.Got up to 93 imby.The saving grace was there was a nice breeze blowing throughout the day.I do welcome the dry period right now.It seems like we were getting a little water logged there for awhile.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

very cold winter, lot of snow, very active spring with several historic outbreaks. Sorry it all missed your area. It can't rain forever, and I distinctly remember western GA getting pummelled numerous times the last few years with major, heavy duty big rain events and flooding.

Robert, if you dont mind would you give me your thoughts on the possibility of a severe outbreak in the TN valley Wed and Thursday?

[Christine]

Robert, if you dont mind would you give me your thoughts on the possibility of a severe outbreak in the TN valley Wed and Thursday?

Yes, I'd like to know too please.

The weather channel says we're going to get storms on Thursday and Friday (Ellijay, GA)

[jrips27]

Thank you!!If this is going on during the "slow" period of weather,imagine the junk that will be going on in the winter.Actually,I do remember some funtimes this past winter..lol.

Anyway,what a hot day today.Got up to 93 imby.The saving grace was there was a nice breeze blowing throughout the day.I do welcome the dry period right now.It seems like we were getting a little water logged there for awhile.

We did have some fun times this past winter. I'll never forget the White Christmas or the big storm in January. Got up to 90 here today, but it felt cooler than yesterday.

[phil882]

Robert, if you dont mind would you give me your thoughts on the possibility of a severe outbreak in the TN valley Wed and Thursday?

Yes, I'd like to know too please.

The weather channel says we're going to get storms on Thursday and Friday (Ellijay, GA)

I'm not Robert, but I can try to help answer the question. My initial thinking is that we certainly could have some storms both days, but the bigger severe weather threat is shaping up in the plains tomorrow will only shift slowly eastward Wednesday as the upper level trough causing all the hazardous weather cuts off and then starts to fall apart as it loses the upper level jet dynamics. Thus, by the time it approaches are region, it won't have the forcing mechanisms in place to cause a classic severe weather outbreak for the southeast, but with ample instability thanks to a warm and humid atmosphere, any sort of height falls will likely spark convection which will lead to showers and storms.

If you look at the setup tomorrow, notice the strong jet streak located over Texas. This in in large part what will help to enhance the severe weather threat, as well as inducing surface cyclogenesis that helps to create veering wind profiles that produce tornadoes. This setup with a strong jet located on the cyclonic side of a upper level trough allows for divergence to occur over the surface cyclone, intensifying development and lift that allows for the severe weather outbreak that is classic across the plains.

However, by the time the upper level impulse makes it further east, it no longer has the strong jet streak co-located with it anymore. The jet streak has vanished, with most of the strong winds once again focused back west, where another upper level trough is starting to develop. Without any strong divergence to aid the development of the cyclone, the upper level trough begins to fall apart, and thus, the organized threat of severe weather is far more defuse across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. I'm not saying we won't get storms, as almost any minor impulse causes storms with some severe weather reports. However, it will be more of a run of a mill type of event for our region. That could always change if we end up with an MCS, but these are difficult to predict far into the future.

[Christine]

Thank you so much for showing us that.

[NavarreDon]

Damn......phil do you really have to leave Asheville to go to New York! Ya ya I already know the answer.

[FoothillsNC]

excellent reply Phil. Thank you!

[WilkesboroDude]

Power is back on. What a storm!

Golf ball size hail and trees down everywhere.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Thanks Phil for the excellent writeup

I was just wondering because I had read a couple of AFD's that seemed to suggest the LL jet would ramp up over the SE. I didnt know about meso paramaters but I thought the synoptic pattern looked conducive for severe.

I wonder what these guys are seeing with the LLJ?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

951 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AND FORCING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO MS AND WESTERN TN. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT...MAINLY OVER MS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPILL OVER INTO NW ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS AND ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. TAPERED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD AND BROUGHT ONLY SCATTERED POPSINTO NW ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REMAINDER OFALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HELICITY LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT STILL MAY INDICATE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE APOSSIBILITY AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. MODELS STALLTHIS FRONT OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THE AREALATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ADD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

240 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THEAREA. WE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER LIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS THAT PERIOD. A LLJ IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND MLCAPE IN THE1000-1500 J/KG RANGE MAY RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING. SOME PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LINGER INTO FRIDAY ASIT IS SLOW MOVING AND MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A SLOWER SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS CLOSE ON ITS HEELS BUT A LITTLE FARTHERNORTH...WHICH SHOULD BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. A BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMALTEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

[Gastonwxman]

Power is back on. What a storm!

Golf ball size hail and trees down everywhere.

Yeah. You guys had it rough from yesterday's storm that rolled through during the afternoon. Probably one of, if not, the strongest I saw out of the storms that developed. I mentioned it earlier on here about the stats of that storm. Quite impressive from what I can tell. Hope to get into that kind of excitement again sometime soon but can do without much damage of course.

For the late part of this week, the summer-like pattern will continue with chances for afternoon/evening convection to fire. In the more destabilized areas is where I expect the best threat for widely scattered strong to severe storms, much like yesterday but slightly better chances. I'm thinking sometime during Thursday into a part of Friday will feature the best chance (around here at least). Even then, the best percentage would be around 50%, so it's a deal or no deal kind of situation. Hopefully it won't be one of those occasions where strong storms die off almost instantly before reaching my area, like it was with a couple of storms from yesterday. I could have used a good shower to cool off down here after hitting around 87 for a high. Nonetheless, it's good to see at least a chance for precipitation while it's around.

EDIT(2:31am): Meanwhile, things are looking rather grave for the folks living in Southern KS/Eastern OK. The developing system out west is expected to strengthen tremendously with a highly favorable environment capable of producing a major severe weather outbreak with strong tornadoes due to the nature of the storms with strong mid and low level rotation. A substantial amount of lift is present there as well, almost off the charts (values at or slightly above -15) with high values of the EHI (around 7 for 0-1km and 12 for 0-3km) as the mid level flow increases during the day on the order of speeds greater than or equal to 75 kts. (86 mph), with CAPE values 4000+. Seems like they can't just catch a break from it all. Hopefully things don't become as bad as it looks right now for them. We don't need anything similar to the Joplin tornado happening over there. With all that said, this has prompt the high risk that was issued for the area. This threat eventually shifts into the Ozark region stretching into parts of the Ohio Valley as the cold front advances eastward.

[Lookout]

You are by far the worst poster on the southern forums. Do us ALL a favor and just go away. The weather has been amazing since December....Extreme Severe Weather, Snowstorms, heavy rains, vivid lightning, major wind events, and now an early season heat wave.

You constantly get snippy with the mets on this board. They are an invaluable service to us please stop being an ass.

Edit : Robert already responded but my thoughts still stand. You are now on my ignore list. To put that in perspective I only had one other name on it before you and that's Powerball.

Totally agree and if his attitude and posting doesn't change, he will go away. There is not a single person, not one, in the entire southeast forum that I can think of that comes close to him in terms of being annoying and being a weenie. That speaks VOLUMES for our group as a whole but it also speaks volumes about him. To be the worst out of hundreds of members takes a lot of work. Our group and I take pride in being as good as we are with so few problem posters and the fact is individuals like him are not welcome. He's been tolerated for perhaps too long now.

So this is an open warning to him to shape up or ship out.