NCBlizzard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Yep! Friday is my last day. Kids last day was wednesday. Wow kids here don't get out until June 10th. Anyways, its been a gorgeous day here today, nice to see some sun. Looks like a hot weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Wow kids here don't get out until June 10th. Anyways, its been a gorgeous day here today, nice to see some sun. Looks like a hot weekend We used to get out the end of May in NC. Travel industry lobbied the legislature and got a law passed that set the earliest date a NC public school could start to Aug. 25th. Mountain counties can receive an exemption if they had a certain number of snow days the year before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Some thoughts for the next few days heading into the weekend in Asheville. http://www.avlweathe...r-this-weekend/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Wow , those are awesome pics there Jon. Thanks man. It's great to visit this time of year and go canoeing/kayaking and sit back and enjoy the view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I think most of the country is about to head straight into Summer. The first major Heat Wave is showing up for a huge part of the Midwest/Ohio/Tenn Valley and interior Southeast. The GFS has heights building under a closed 588dm high, and it grows to 594...about as strong as it gets for heat waves.(but lacks the +24 850temps so far). The absolute worse news is the location of the closed high. Over central/eastern KY/southern Apps region, which is the death knell for Summer pop up chances. Absolutely zero hope here for a stray thunderstorm when that happens, and its happened a lot over the last few Summers. It also creates strong downslope warming. The model has dewpoints in the middle 70's during the day west of the Appalachians with Heat Index around 101 for the Miss. River areas from MEM to STL, plenty hot and humid everywhere. This is out in time around just around day 10 and beyond so it could change...certainly can't look much worse. Its a monster ridge and encompasses a huge area of the eastern US. This next Fri/Weekend there's a decent chance for a slow moving front and high humidity/offshore ridging to help generate widespread showers before the real heat begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I think most of the country is about to head straight into Summer. The first major Heat Wave is showing up for a huge part of the Midwest/Ohio/Tenn Valley and interior Southeast. The GFS has heights building under a closed 588dm high, and it grows to 594...about as strong as it gets for heat waves.(but lacks the +24 850temps so far). The absolute worse news is the location of the closed high. Over central/eastern KY/southern Apps region, which is the death knell for Summer pop up chances. Absolutely zero hope here for a stray thunderstorm when that happens, and its happened a lot over the last few Summers. It also creates strong downslope warming. The model has dewpoints in the middle 70's during the day west of the Appalachians with Heat Index around 101 for the Miss. River areas from MEM to STL, plenty hot and humid everywhere. This is out in time around just around day 10 and beyond so it could change...certainly can't look much worse. Its a monster ridge and encompasses a huge area of the eastern US. This next Fri/Weekend there's a decent chance for a slow moving front and high humidity/offshore ridging to help generate widespread showers before the real heat begins. Ugh that looks horrible RE: the heatwave and not the potential for precipitation. It looks like the next week or so should be pretty active convection wise as we will have a decent amount of CAPE everyday across the mountains, and as we start to get some upper level impulses moving through, it should help to spark convection. I'm still a bit reluctant to believe the GFS in the long range, especially considering the Euro could not be more different LOL! Take the average 500mb heights of the GFS and the EURO and you end up with pretty much average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Ugh that looks horrible RE: the heatwave and not the potential for precipitation. It looks like the next week or so should be pretty active convection wise as we will have a decent amount of CAPE everyday across the mountains, and as we start to get some upper level impulses moving through, it should help to spark convection. I'm still a bit reluctant to believe the GFS in the long range, especially considering the Euro could not be more different LOL! Take the average 500mb heights of the GFS and the EURO and you end up with pretty much average Now that's what you call a "Night and Day" kind of situation haha. Going to be interesting to see who caves in first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Now that's what you call a "Night and Day" kind of situation haha. Going to be interesting to see who caves in first. I'd love for the ECMWF to be right, or even in the ballpark, but its been extremely wretched in the day 4+ range for a long time now. If I were a betting man, I'd lean toward GFS on this. Who knows though, its pretty far out still, but GFS has been pretty good at big pattern changes in the day 10 + range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I'd love for the ECMWF to be right, or even in the ballpark, but its been extremely wretched in the day 4+ range for a long time now. If I were a betting man, I'd lean toward GFS on this. Who knows though, its pretty far out still, but GFS has been pretty good at big pattern changes in the day 10 + range. 18Z GFS already trended a bit towards EURO. Let's see what the 00Z runs say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The GFS hasn't lost the ridge, but it has tempered it a bit. I don't see any more widespread +20C 850's in the east. Still not ready to say the Euro wins, but I sure hope it does..........GFS is also showing a possible tropical type system along the southeast coast in the extended range. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 18Z GFS already trended a bit towards EURO. Let's see what the 00Z runs say... Yeah the GFS is now building the ridge over top of a closed low that stalls in the Southeast, then that backs up, with the highest temps to our north and northwest. That would be good news to see a pattern like that, we'd lock in to daily showers and thunderstorms with a weakeness trapped inside a really muggy airmass. But a lot of times the models lose something and bring it back later on (atleast I've noticed ECMWF join the initial progs of GFS) but its only been a couple of runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Interesting complex in Arkansas and western Tenn. heading ENE.....According to most of the models, the precip was supposed to be mainly north of that area. Severe TS watch has been posted........Looks like mainly a hail threat. Might have to keep an eye on this, although I would expect it to stay well north and west of our area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Already up to 85° here and that was the temperature I hit for a high yesterday. Going to be quite a scorcher out there for today. Don't work too hard if you're going outside. The last thing any of us need to hear is someone suffering from a heat stroke. Ma Nature's way of reminding us that June is just around the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I sure hope this pattern changes soon. Over 65% of Georgia is in a severe drought and it's getting worse by the day. In fact the % of Georgia in a severe drought went from like 40% to 65% in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Hit 92.1 yesterday and already 93.1 today. I'd say summer is already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The ECMWF has trended strongly toward the GFS from yesterday, with a big sprawling heat ridge over the eastern half of the country. Its not too extreme yet though, but would be a good first heat wave probably. The jury is still out on where the ridge forms exactly. However the biggest unknown is where the weakness gets pinched off at some point this weekend or early next week. All models have some sort of weakness or upper low near the Gulf or Southeast Coast/Florida, with ridging to the north. That would mean everything rotates around the ridge and gets pulled into the Gulf and west into Texas or Mexico. No model is printing out much rain for the eastern Carolinas and most of GA, and really only meager amounts in the mtns. this weekend. That could be under-done if the slow moving front can hold its dynamics longer than forecast, so we can't fully rule out a big rain event as it nears and stalls, but right now it favors west of the Apps more than east. Could change though. If we could luck up and get the weakness to cutoff and meander in the Southeast, it would help with daily rains, esp. since many areas need it as we get into the worst months for evaporation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 WNC under a STW till 11:00 pm. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0333.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Golf ball size hail reported near Mars Hill, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Golf ball size hail reported near Mars Hill, NC. That storm went just to the north of my house & it looked like a dozy! Almost constant thunder & lightning from a distance. The outflow was awesome. A welcome relief on a hot day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Got a nasty cell dropping off the mountains IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The ECMWF has trended strongly toward the GFS from yesterday, with a big sprawling heat ridge over the eastern half of the country. Its not too extreme yet though, but would be a good first heat wave probably. The jury is still out on where the ridge forms exactly. However the biggest unknown is where the weakness gets pinched off at some point this weekend or early next week. All models have some sort of weakness or upper low near the Gulf or Southeast Coast/Florida, with ridging to the north. That would mean everything rotates around the ridge and gets pulled into the Gulf and west into Texas or Mexico. No model is printing out much rain for the eastern Carolinas and most of GA, and really only meager amounts in the mtns. this weekend. That could be under-done if the slow moving front can hold its dynamics longer than forecast, so we can't fully rule out a big rain event as it nears and stalls, but right now it favors west of the Apps more than east. Could change though. If we could luck up and get the weakness to cutoff and meander in the Southeast, it would help with daily rains, esp. since many areas need it as we get into the worst months for evaporation rates. Robert Whats the forecast look for in Pigeon Forge, Tenn starting Thurs - Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Robert Whats the forecast look for in Pigeon Forge, Tenn starting Thurs - Monday? the rain probably arrives late Thursday and into Friday, maybe Saturday. Beyond that, it depends on if a weakness stalls and where. Could be ok and hot, or muggy with daily showers/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 we just got destroyed by a derecho or straight line winds here in HKY. limbs down everywhere. transformer blown and sirens all over the place. probably 60 to 70 mph. worst winds i've seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Heavy winds here too just before the line of rain reached us. It was really something. Most of my trees are quite young, the bend but don't break kind; so I don't have any limbs missing that I can see amidst the darkness and rain. Lots of lightning, but not too heavy of a rain. But, I'll take any rain I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 those storms screamed out of the mountains, must be travelling around 90 or 100 based on the radar. Theres one more cell developing behind the main line in upper Rutherford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 those storms screamed out of the mountains, must be travelling around 90 or 100 based on the radar. Theres one more cell developing behind the main line in upper Rutherford. Agree 100 percent...cells quickly jumped off the ridge tops. One heck of a lightning display when it was overhead and now to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Crap . Mowed a boat load of hay with the inlaws in MT Airy yesterday and tethered this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Nice storm came through here,nothing severe but the lightning was wicked. .45'' in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Crap . Mowed a boat load of hay with the inlaws in MT Airy yesterday and tethered this afternoon. Looks like that line is putting itself back together. I think I am about 30 minutes away from getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Quite a healthy line of storms from radar stretching from Salisbury through Martinsville, VA and north near Harrisonburg, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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