strongwxnc Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Had .34 this morning at 7am. I assume that amount will increase as the rain looks to be building around this area good grief you're racking up. I've got .83" total. Looks like your area was on the sweet spot (nw side) of the circulation plus your convection. Looks like the footills west of here is in a stalled band and that sweeps back southeast to the northern Upstate. Eventually this may fill back in and rain steady once again here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 34 degrees above 5200' in Avery County this morning. Has been 33 degrees on Sugar Mountain during last hour. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/sugartop/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Had .34 this morning at 7am. I assume that amount will increase as the rain looks to be building around this area It sure is building in your area. The southeast part of the axis is beginning to pivot eastward, but the northern part is still pushing west thanks to the circulation location, so a few counties around your area will probably be in an ever increasing intensity of rain in the enhanced convergence band. Looks like its centered right over Rutherford County to northern Greenville/Spartanburg counties...might squeeze out a couple of inches in a few areas there if the rates get high enough. I thought Lookout would like this (not if it were Winter though)..shows the warm bubble downwind of the Ga mountains , and it shows up extremely well at 925mb level. Sometimes this warm pocket is a little more northeast. Its the reason it couldn't snow til very late on Christmas Day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I suspect a short a flood warning of some type could be in the works in one of these areas soon. Already radar is showing some spots of 1" per hour rates near Lake Lure and southern Buncombe County south of Asheville. Looks like a mid level meso-low circulation is forming. If nothing else, a strong deformation type axis will efficiently wring out a lot of rain in this region today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 good grief you're racking up. I've got .83" total. Looks like your area was on the sweet spot (nw side) of the circulation plus your convection. Looks like the footills west of here is in a stalled band and that sweeps back southeast to the northern Upstate. Eventually this may fill back in and rain steady once again here. Yeah. It's been one band after another in a seemingly never-ending cycle of precipitation when the upper low sat southeast of us. Each band contained your usual thunderstorm but with louder thunder and periodically heavy rain. I noticed on radar how it seems to intensify once it reached Southern NC, creating a small line of convection with the heaviest moving right along the NC/SC border toward my way. I haven't seen this kind of setup with precipitation pivoting like this in a long while, providing me with the amount that I had based on my previous post (now totaling at 3.26"). The creek just up 321 pass the Chevron gas station, which is across the street from the floral shop, has risen the most I've ever seen in who knows how long as the heavy rain just keeps pouring. I can only imagine how much snow would be accumulating here if it were winter and conditions favored wintry precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Definite circulation going on now, but I'm not sure if its a true meso low in the Lee, or just being the best location in regard to the surface and ull over the piedmont, and the incoming new ULL from TN. Either way, the convergence is forcing a spin and good precip rates right now over the region , the center is just south of Forest City and north of Spartanburg. If it doesn't move much , there could be over 3" of rain today in this area....already 1" in the last hour in some spots under the heaviest echoes. Strong Wx and Peach could be hit with big rains. Lake Lure and the Rocky Broad River usually flood out quickly in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 FFC is a little hyped about the shortwave moving through today: BIG QUESTION FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS WILL WE GET A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY IN WHICH SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.NEXT COLD CORE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH IS EVERY BIT AS POTENT WITH 500 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO -22C BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING DATA...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE. THAT SAID...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODELS AND WILL GO WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ALSO INDICATE THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE WRF MODELS DO HINT AT INCREASED INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...COULD SEE HAIL...EVEN IN CONVECTION NOT SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 . I haven't seen this kind of setup with precipitation pivoting like this in a long while, providing me with the amount that I had based on my previous post (now totaling at 3.26"). The creek just up 321 pass the Chevron gas station, which is across the street from the floral shop, has risen the most I've ever seen in who knows how long as the heavy rain just keeps pouring. I can only imagine how much snow would be accumulating here if it were winter and conditions favored wintry precipitation... That would be nice to get a Winter storm do what this one is doing, minus the warm 950 temps/warm eddy. I think thats how the Feb 1969 snowstorm did incidentally. Strong pivoting and stationary bands rotating just to my west, and I think the southern flank is going to rebuild over this way, maybe to your area this afternoon. Certainly looks like a soaker of atleast a couple inches for the southern foothills and northern Upstate today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 FFC is a little hyped about the shortwave moving through today: BIG QUESTION FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS WILL WE GET A REPEATPERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY IN WHICH SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.NEXT COLD CORE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH IS EVERY BIT AS POTENT WITH 500 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO -22C BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING DATA...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE. THAT SAID...LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODELS AND WILL GO WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ALSO INDICATE THUNDER FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE WRF MODELS DO HINT AT INCREASED INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...COULD SEE HAIL...EVEN IN CONVECTION NOT SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER. Did GA get hail yesterday? I wasn't around most of the day but from what I read on here I didn't see any reports. Looking at the visible, it looks clear over NE GA and eastern sections with downslope flow. Any waves could develop some tall towers this afternoon, so I'd keep a watch on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Right at 3 inches down at the house so far, just called the old man and still raining. Up here in High Point it's coming down very hard at the moment as well. Gonna be some urban flooding soon with these rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Did GA get hail yesterday? I wasn't around most of the day but from what I read on here I didn't see any reports. Looking at the visible, it looks clear over NE GA and eastern sections with downslope flow. Any waves could develop some tall towers this afternoon, so I'd keep a watch on that. Nothing on the SPC storm report map. There were only 2 reports of quarter sized hail in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 heavy rain here the last 30 minutes and 54 degrees. Up to 1" since last night, and possibly 2" more today if the def. axis stays in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Going to be a quick switch from chilly cutoff to blast furnace this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Going to be a quick switch from chilly cutoff to blast furnace this weekend. We all knew it would only be a matter of time before hell arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 It sure is building in your area. The southeast part of the axis is beginning to pivot eastward, but the northern part is still pushing west thanks to the circulation location, so a few counties around your area will probably be in an ever increasing intensity of rain in the enhanced convergence band. Looks like its centered right over Rutherford County to northern Greenville/Spartanburg counties...might squeeze out a couple of inches in a few areas there if the rates get high enough. I thought Lookout would like this (not if it were Winter though)..shows the warm bubble downwind of the Ga mountains , and it shows up extremely well at 925mb level. Sometimes this warm pocket is a little more northeast. Its the reason it couldn't snow til very late on Christmas Day here. lol good find. Yeah that's the infamous "lookout screw eddy" If this was winter time, I would be more than a little irritated. Seeing that brings back bad memories of one system that did exactly that, despite models showing it cold enough. Ended up with just a cold 35 degree rain while it snowed west of athens into the upstate iirc. Thank god this is may Ended up picking up 0.25 yesterday. I need every drop, nice to see the grass is already greener. Unfortunately, another long dry spell looks to be on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I'd be willing to be Leconte will pick up some snow when that band hits it good. It's 41 on Look Rock and 37 at Purchase Knob. If only they had a station up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 lol good find. Yeah that's the infamous "lookout screw eddy" If this was winter time, I would be more than a little irritated. Seeing that brings back bad memories of one system that did exactly that, despite models showing it cold enough. Ended up with just a cold 35 degree rain while it snowed west of athens into the upstate iirc. Thank god this is may Ended up picking up 0.25 yesterday. I need every drop, nice to see the grass is already greener. Unfortunately, another long dry spell looks to be on tap. The "lookout screw eddy" seemed to find central NC this time too. The ULL passed overhead putting us in a precip min. We probably squeezed out a few hundreths at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Here comes the next area of precipitation coming my way. Let's see how much falls out of this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Very interesting system so far... It looks like the heavy rain is really panning out for those favored upslope locations and folks just in the lee of the WNC mountains. One thing I'm playing close attention to is also the potential for snowfall on some of the highest elevations. The Mt. Mitchell reporting station is currently reporting 34.2 degrees, and was down to 32.9 degrees earlier when the strong band of precipitation moved through. I'm suspecting we are getting a bit of a rain/snow mix in some of the highest elevations above 5500 feet. In fact I'm heading up to Mt. Mitchell in the next hour or so to get some ground truth and see if we are getting any snow mixing in with the rain. As for the rain, it will be interesting to see how the current mesolow evolves, since we are pretty much sandwiched beween two upper level vortices, so I suspect folks that are getting moderate-heavy rain right now might be for quite some time, especially the upslope favored areas! So far have .4" of rainfall with a temperature of 46.7 degrees... very raw day so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Very interesting system so far... It looks like the heavy rain is really panning out for those favored upslope locations and folks just in the lee of the WNC mountains. One thing I'm playing close attention to is also the potential for snowfall on some of the highest elevations. The Mt. Mitchell reporting station is currently reporting 34.2 degrees, and was down to 32.9 degrees earlier when the strong band of precipitation moved through. I'm suspecting we are getting a bit of a rain/snow mix in some of the highest elevations above 5500 feet. In fact I'm heading up to Mt. Mitchell in the next hour or so to get some ground truth and see if we are getting any snow mixing in with the rain. As for the rain, it will be interesting to see how the current mesolow evolves, since we are pretty much sandwiched beween two upper level vortices, so I suspect folks that are getting moderate-heavy rain right now might be for quite some time, especially the upslope favored areas! So far have .4" of rainfall with a temperature of 46.7 degrees... very raw day so far! Good post Phil. Have a safe trip up to the top. I am watching the RUC pretty closely, it seems to have just now latched on to the new 5h strong vort that is going to be dropping from Southest TN into northeast GA this afternoon and get stalled in central SC. It forms a new 850 low with that near Athens to Columbia sometime tonight, and the 7H moisture just re-builds and pivots in deformation type /fujiwara combo...very strange, but if it works out, then some very interesting things are about to transpire between AHN CAE AVL and CLT area, in regards to heavy rain. Also, where its on the outer edge, southern and eastern sections of the 5H vort, I think strong to severe storms may fire, esp in estern GA and central SC, possibly eastern NC if it arrives in time. This whole system is completely fooling the global models on the meso level, but the GFS did outstanding overall in the whole setup from a long way out...nearly pinpointed the main Upper low and its conjoining with the next one developing. It definitely wasn't a good time to follow MOS in the Upstate and central and western NC, where CLT and surrounding areas had 2" of rain last night and now the heavy rain hitting them again, plus the cold temps. (Avl 47, GSP 52 at 1 pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 It might be snow hallucinations (spelling) but I swear I saw a few flakes fly across this webcam; Beech Mtn Slopes via highcountrywebcams.com http://highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_BeechSlopeside2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Spent 10 hours at the top of Mt. Mitchell yesterday. Dreadful. Cold 40 degrees, 100 feet of visibility and waves of rain. Good post Phil. Have a safe trip up to the top. I am watching the RUC pretty closely, it seems to have just now latched on to the new 5h strong vort that is going to be dropping from Southest TN into northeast GA this afternoon and get stalled in central SC. It forms a new 850 low with that near Athens to Columbia sometime tonight, and the 7H moisture just re-builds and pivots in deformation type /fujiwara combo...very strange, but if it works out, then some very interesting things are about to transpire between AHN CAE AVL and CLT area, in regards to heavy rain. Also, where its on the outer edge, southern and eastern sections of the 5H vort, I think strong to severe storms may fire, esp in estern GA and central SC, possibly eastern NC if it arrives in time. This whole system is completely fooling the global models on the meso level, but the GFS did outstanding overall in the whole setup from a long way out...nearly pinpointed the main Upper low and its conjoining with the next one developing. It definitely wasn't a good time to follow MOS in the Upstate and central and western NC, where CLT and surrounding areas had 2" of rain last night and now the heavy rain hitting them again, plus the cold temps. (Avl 47, GSP 52 at 1 pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Good post Phil. Have a safe trip up to the top. I am watching the RUC pretty closely, it seems to have just now latched on to the new 5h strong vort that is going to be dropping from Southest TN into northeast GA this afternoon and get stalled in central SC. It forms a new 850 low with that near Athens to Columbia sometime tonight, and the 7H moisture just re-builds and pivots in deformation type /fujiwara combo...very strange, but if it works out, then some very interesting things are about to transpire between AHN CAE AVL and CLT area, in regards to heavy rain. Also, where its on the outer edge, southern and eastern sections of the 5H vort, I think strong to severe storms may fire, esp in estern GA and central SC, possibly eastern NC if it arrives in time. This whole system is completely fooling the global models on the meso level, but the GFS did outstanding overall in the whole setup from a long way out...nearly pinpointed the main Upper low and its conjoining with the next one developing. It definitely wasn't a good time to follow MOS in the Upstate and central and western NC, where CLT and surrounding areas had 2" of rain last night and now the heavy rain hitting them again, plus the cold temps. (Avl 47, GSP 52 at 1 pm) This secondary vort will be interesting for sure. Already some new showers firing in central NC as well. It will be fun to watch the interaction between the two distubances and just where the next batch of DPVA sets up. The water vapor shows a bit of fjiwara underway: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 It might be snow hallucinations (spelling) but I swear I saw a few flakes fly across this webcam; Beech Mtn Slopes via highcountrywebcams.com http://highcountrywe...hSlopeside2.htm I was looking at that cam earlier this morning and now again. It does look like a few big wet flakes occasionally if you watch it long enough, but hard to say if thats just drops in the foreground dripping off the trees or the front of the camera itself. The meso maps don't have it quite cold enough yet there, but I guess if any enhanced lifting occured it could be just barely cold enough to bring a few flakes to the surface. Looks like convection is about to start firing in eastern Ga near the SAV river valley. The RUC has a strong 5H coming down and even develops a small, weak 850 low tonight near CAE, so its going to be interesting to see how the convection develops this afternoon and what effect it has on the solid rain band in the piedmont and foothills right now. I dont' think any model is handling this too well, but the GFS develops a pretty decent line this afternoon in GA and central SC, the RUC to some extent. The very cold air aloft should create some very good lapse rates in sunnier areas of GA and SC late afternoon which could be the recipe for hail. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE PRESENCE OF 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND RESULTANT 35-40 KT OF DEEP SELY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I am under a very heavy band of rain here in south Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I've had a high of 62.8 F which was colder than yesterday. RECORDS FOR 05-17 MAX TEMPERATURE STATION LOW ------- ---------- KAHN 61 1910 KATL 58 1895 KCSG 75 2006 KMCN 68 1934 So it looks like I won't break the record like I did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yikes! someone tell mother nature it is May 17th not March 17. We have reached our high of the day @ 46 after a low of 45.3. Almost half an inch of cold raw rain so far today. I had to break down and run the heat last night & today. Def. not your typical May day in the Mnts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 That would be nice to get a Winter storm do what this one is doing, minus the warm 950 temps/warm eddy. I think thats how the Feb 1969 snowstorm did incidentally. Strong pivoting and stationary bands rotating just to my west, and I think the southern flank is going to rebuild over this way, maybe to your area this afternoon. Certainly looks like a soaker of atleast a couple inches for the southern foothills and northern Upstate today. Yea a winter storm that would do this would be epic, the rain justs keeps falling, grass sure is gonna shoot up. And it sure is cold! currently 53 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Just had a downpour in Southern Pines. I believe there was one low rumble of thunder as well. Looks like this second vortmax is making up for the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I went hiking this morning with my wife off Hwy 181 between Morganton and Linville. We did the Upper Creek Falls Loop. We were the only people there! Light mist and around 45 degrees. We then drove up to Banner Elk for lunch. The thermometers were reading 40 up there. We followed up with a drive to Boone for shopping. That's when the light rain began to pick up. Rain from Blowing Rock down to the outskirts of Lenoir, and then it was dry until we reached Granite Falls and home. Rain has been steady here for a few hours with about 0.40 inches so far. Keep it coming! Radar seems to indicate this rainfall will just continue to pivot for quite a while, yet. I was hoping there might be a few snowflakes mixing in at Banner Elk around lunch, but no dice. Just a cold mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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