May

[WilkesboroDude]

WXII just ran a crawler during the golf tournament but called it a Flash Flood Warning.

Yep it was upgraded to a warning. Got some very heavy rain with some small hail. Still storms close by.

[jburns]

Flash Flood Warnings are being posted in that area.

Yeah now they are running both.

[Itunis]

These next few days could be our last few days of cool weather before 3 months of hell. Nothing like a few nights in the 40s after oppressive heat...

[WilkesboroDude]

I am ready for a heatwave and some active tropics...

Weak thunderstorms developing near Hickory at the moment to my south.

[FoothillsNC]

Its too wet to cut grass. I can't say that often, but one more cut will tie the amount of number of last years cuttings. Its only Mid May. I don't think I'll be able to cut again til very late in the week, by then I'll need a bushhog. Heavy morning dews lately.

The ULL dumbell system still looks interesting this week. All models now join the GFS from over a week ago, very impressive imo. Several waves of separate upper systems are all going to merge into a major Southern Apps upper low by Tuesday. The first 5H is pretty strong and goes neg. tilt before getting absorbed, so that will bring some showers and storms to and central/eastern GA on Monday, and into SC before stalling and expanding an RH shield into central and wstern Carolinas early Tuesday. That then grows with inflow off the Atlantic from NC, north as the next wave comes in and keeps the ULL spinning through much of the week over the Apps. HPC has very heavy rains from VA north into NYC but doesn't have all that much in western NC.

I think western esp. nw NC and from about GSO west on Tuesday could deal with a flood watch. All models have the rain shield expanding on the n and nw side of the closed 850 low, which is slowly crawling north, that should bring upslope and extra forcing being on the n. side of the 850 low to the mtns between Asheville Boone and Roanoke region.

With all the clouds, there may be limited instability, but as you get away from the ULL on, coming off the mtns esp. in downslope flow I think some strong individual cells could become severe in the lee from GA to the Carolinas at almost any afternoon this week. Thats usually how systems like this work out. Very cold air aloft at first, nearly +3, so the freezing level and hail will probably occur. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if overnight mon night or early Tuesday its just cold enough at Mt Mitchell/LeConte level for snow.

RUC for early Mon AM

[POWERSTROKE]

Its too wet to cut grass. I can't say that often, but one more cut will tie the amount of number of last years cuttings. Its only Mid May. I don't think I'll be able to cut again til very late in the week, by then I'll need a bushhog. Heavy morning dews lately.

The ULL dumbell system still looks interesting this week. All models now join the GFS from over a week ago, very impressive imo. Several waves of separate upper systems are all going to merge into a major Southern Apps upper low by Tuesday. The first 5H is pretty strong and goes neg. tilt before getting absorbed, so that will bring some showers and storms to and central/eastern GA on Monday, and into SC before stalling and expanding an RH shield into central and wstern Carolinas early Tuesday. That then grows with inflow off the Atlantic from NC, north as the next wave comes in and keeps the ULL spinning through much of the week over the Apps. HPC has very heavy rains from VA north into NYC but doesn't have all that much in western NC.

I think western esp. nw NC and from about GSO west on Tuesday could deal with a flood watch. All models have the rain shield expanding on the n and nw side of the closed 850 low, which is slowly crawling north, that should bring upslope and extra forcing being on the n. side of the 850 low to the mtns between Asheville Boone and Roanoke region.

With all the clouds, there may be limited instability, but as you get away from the ULL on, coming off the mtns esp. in downslope flow I think some strong individual cells could become severe in the lee from GA to the Carolinas at almost any afternoon this week. Thats usually how systems like this work out. Very cold air aloft at first, nearly +3, so the freezing level and hail will probably occur. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if overnight mon night or early Tuesday its just cold enough at Mt Mitchell/LeConte level for snow.

RUC for early Mon AM

Rule of Thumb for mowing--- If roads are dry grass is able to be cut! Trust me! Are we looking at afternoon showers or consistent rain this week besides tuesday? Just trying to guess how many days we will work this week

[kennedy]

Hello All,

Lost power for three days, I was talking to a friend that moved here from Ohio the year Hugo hit. She swears we had the same summer type weather

we are currently having now the year it hit. Any thoughts ?

[kennedy]

Hello All,

Lost power for three days, I was talking to a friend that moved here from Ohio the year Hugo hit. She swears we had the same summer type weather

we are currently having now the year it hit. Any thoughts ?

OOPS , just read analogs and hurricanes, thanks Shaggy for the write up!

[FoothillsNC]

Rule of Thumb for mowing--- If roads are dry grass is able to be cut! Trust me! Are we looking at afternoon showers or consistent rain this week besides tuesday? Just trying to guess how many days we will work this week

the steadiest rains your area will come late Monday night and most of Tuesday. Then showery, at any point this week showers could pop from then on out, with afternoons favored under the cold air aloft. I'm shooting for grass cutting Monday. The sun is out now, it will take all day to dry and part of tomorrow..its just too high already. I push the yard, and the HP is sort of weak on this junky mower.

Hello All,

Lost power for three days, I was talking to a friend that moved here from Ohio the year Hugo hit. She swears we had the same summer type weather

we are currently having now the year it hit. Any thoughts ?

wow, thats a long time with no power. The utilities are having a busy Spring, there's still a few outages around here. I'm lucky mine never went.

[shaggy]

OOPS , just read analogs and hurricanes, thanks Shaggy for the write up!

Thanks. Its not scientific and it may not mean anything but the numbers were pretty interesting to me. All we can do is wait and see what the summer holds.

Glad you finally got power back.

We need some storms or rain as we have been getting missed and i'm sittung at just over .50 of rain for the month.

[buckeyefan1]

Got home yesterday from the crawfish boil to see .55 in the bucket We only had some sprinkles at the lake, but the lightning, thunder, and nasty looking clouds were not far several times during the day.

I'm looking forward to some cooler weather and another chance of rain

CAE...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --THIS UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND

TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S TO LOWER 50S. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY

WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF

THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEEP

LAPSE RATES. THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT GET THAT UNSTABLE DURING THIS

PERIOD BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[FoothillsNC]

The 12z GFS stalls the sfc low and just crawls across the Piedmont, starting late Monday night, through early Wednesday. Could be a very wet time in parts of the mtns , foothills and piedmont, with a good enhancement right around northwestern piedmont and foothills of NC Tuesday. Any spokes coming around the ULL on Tue or Wed will be able to grow into some severe cells/pulse storms, with hail as the flow comes off the GA mtns and across eastern GA and much of SC. As with all ULL's usually some wild weather results, and I'd expect no less with this one. The one strange thing is no model is printing out major heavy duty rains on the nw side of the 850 and surface low in NC/VA where I think it could be a pretty big deal on Tuesday, with several inches possible under a def. type axis, stalled on the 7H and 850 low plus Mtn. convergence.

[EmersonGA]

Im starting to get that nasty drought feel here again. Weve had an awesome two years rain wise but the last month has been dry. Ive gotten .5" in the last 3 weeks or so and I dont see any real rain in sight. All the stuff Robert is talking about seems to miss NW Georgia. Im going to hook my rain barrell up in preparation.

[FoothillsNC]

Im starting to get that nasty drought feel here again. Weve had an awesome two years rain wise but the last month has been dry. Ive gotten .5" in the last 3 weeks or so and I dont see any real rain in sight. All the stuff Robert is talking about seems to miss NW Georgia. Im going to hook my rain barrell up in preparation.

It sure didnt' get as wet as I though it would with this system so far. Thats definitely a switch, you get dry and I get wet. I think as the strong 5H low goes just to your south, maybe right overhead midday tomorrow, you'll get something from that. That upper low then stalls over central SC and begins to develop strong 7h axis of moisture, but probably just to your east. Looks like a soaker on Tuesday for most of western NC and eastern TN and quite chilly there as well. During the day, anyone on the outer periphery of the circulation could break into enough sunshine to boost the instability, since it will be so cold aloft on Tues and into Wednesday, so both those afternoons will offer some chances.

http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com

[Gastonwxman]

Its too wet to cut grass. I can't say that often, but one more cut will tie the amount of number of last years cuttings. Its only Mid May. I don't think I'll be able to cut again til very late in the week, by then I'll need a bushhog. Heavy morning dews lately.

Too wet indeed. The consistent rains and morning dews are making it next to impossible to get this grass under control. Heck, the weeds around my bushes are approaching between 2-3 feet, which I have never allowed to grow to such heights. It's going to be a long day when I can finally get to work on this. What's even worse is the weed-eater's tendency to suddenly cut off on me while I'm cutting even after filling up the fuel and giving it good oil with a new spark plug.

Rest aside, I hope I can get the internet cut back on at my house since AT&T's been busy repairing service to other folks from the early week squall line that pushed through. I'm using a friend of mine's computer at the moment. Still got several trees down here and a few people still without power for the past 3-4 days now. York got torn just as bad as it did here in Gastonia from what I've heard.

[dsaur]

Im starting to get that nasty drought feel here again. Weve had an awesome two years rain wise but the last month has been dry. Ive gotten .5" in the last 3 weeks or so and I dont see any real rain in sight. All the stuff Robert is talking about seems to miss NW Georgia. Im going to hook my rain barrell up in preparation.

Yep, down here too! I didn't get rain even when you guys did. Nary a drop since the night of the pad sweepers. It is bone dry and I'm having to water already. I get radar signals overhead but the drops can't seem figure out which way is down Sure do love today though. Man, cloudy and cool..I wish 3 out of 7 summer days were just like this. I might learn to like summer then, lol. T

[shaggy]

I cant seem to buy a decent shower here in the east. Nothing lasts for more than 5 minutes. Now they are backing off pops for Tuesday and they've dropped our chances from 50% down to 30%.

[theodometer]

Rest aside, I hope I can get the internet cut back on at my house since AT&T's been busy repairing service to other folks from the early week squall line that pushed through. I'm using a friend of mine's computer at the moment. Still got several trees down here and a few people still without power for the past 3-4 days now. York got torn just as bad as it did here in Gastonia from what I've heard.

We definitely did. I've got several huge branches down--I didn't have power for over 36 hours--and I'm practically in the city of Rock Hill. Parts of Rock Hill did not get power back until Saturday. I only got cable and internet back yesterday--after losing everything--power, cable, telephone (and water, since I have a well).

I'd imagine I was in one of those 70-80 mph areas that were embedded in the storm, as damage was much more severe through my area than it was even a half mile away. Brad Panovich had a great radar shot showing those areas--and one was just to my east in the shot. Downtown Clover had winds around 80 mph.

[FoothillsNC]

We definitely did. I've got several huge branches down--I didn't have power for over 36 hours--and I'm practically in the city of Rock Hill. Parts of Rock Hill did not get power back until Saturday. I only got cable and internet back yesterday--after losing everything--power, cable, telephone (and water, since I have a well).

I'd imagine I was in one of those 70-80 mph areas that were embedded in the storm, as damage was much more severe through my area than it was even a half mile away. Brad Panovich had a great radar shot showing those areas--and one was just to my east in the shot. Downtown Clover had winds around 80 mph.

It looks like southern Rutherford, Cleveland and Gaston and points south really got nailed by that line. I took several pictures yesterday in Rutherford (Ellenboro) where half of a forest was laid down right off highway 74 business. Amazing to see that.

[POWERSTROKE]

Too wet indeed. The consistent rains and morning dews are making it next to impossible to get this grass under control. Heck, the weeds around my bushes are approaching between 2-3 feet, which I have never allowed to grow to such heights. It's going to be a long day when I can finally get to work on this. What's even worse is the weed-eater's tendency to suddenly cut off on me while I'm cutting even after filling up the fuel and giving it good oil with a new spark plug.

Rest aside, I hope I can get the internet cut back on at my house since AT&T's been busy repairing service to other folks from the early week squall line that pushed through. I'm using a friend of mine's computer at the moment. Still got several trees down here and a few people still without power for the past 3-4 days now. York got torn just as bad as it did here in Gastonia from what I've heard.

we can mow after it rains 4inches. Commercial mowers don't clump up. If it is too bad we bag all of it

[LithiaWx]

Im starting to get that nasty drought feel here again. Weve had an awesome two years rain wise but the last month has been dry. Ive gotten .5" in the last 3 weeks or so and I dont see any real rain in sight. All the stuff Robert is talking about seems to miss NW Georgia. Im going to hook my rain barrell up in preparation.

Me and my better half planted some seeds today...The ground is really dry again, the first inch or two was parched and below that was not very moist either. Let it rain please and lots of it.

[DaculaWeather]

I'm holding Robert to his word! Rain today!

If we can get some breaks in the clouds and get some heat at the surface, we might have a good chance. Right now, just before sunrise, it's clear. If we could hit 75-80 we'd be good. I hit 66 yesterday and they're calling for 65 today.

[FoothillsNC]

I'm holding Robert to his word! Rain today!

If we can get some breaks in the clouds and get some heat at the surface, we might have a good chance. Right now, just before sunrise, it's clear. If we could hit 75-80 we'd be good. I hit 66 yesterday and they're calling for 65 today.

The strong ULL is beginning to create forcing now in eastern Al, srn and ern TN and nw GA as thought yesterday. That should continue all day as it slowly moves toward central SC, placing extreme NE GA and all the western Carolinas on the best side of the lift. The RUC, NAM and GFS show this occuring strongly tonight, but your area might be on the outer periphery so its hard to say. Certainly looks wet for the Upstate and all of western NC and that will eventually also cause rain on the western side of the Apps overnight and all of Tuesday.

The models have the 7H axis of moisture just pinwheeling for about 3 days right over the Apps, so areas on the outer periphery could get clipped from time to time, but ground zero looks like the mtns of NC and sw VA/east TN. If this were a colder cutoff, wow the snow would pile high and deep, Like May 1992. As it stands now, I'm expecting around 3" to 5" of rain total in places like Boone, and Wytheville, VA, with around 2" in Upstate to CLT to GSO region. Outside of that it depends on any bands that rotate and the severe cells that pop up depend on localized instability the next few days. With such low freezing levels any cell could have hail, and my favored area for that is from eastern GA to central and eastern SC and eastern NC.

[Gastonwxman]

You can clearly see the upper level system swinging across the Southeast. Very nice look to it:

[FoothillsNC]

You can clearly see the upper level system swinging across the Southeast. Very nice look to it:

moisture should begin to blossom out here soon for N. Ga and expand quickly in NC and SC from about 77, west. HPC isn't going with very much as for 5 day totals, guess they're going by the models verbatim, which do look too dry i.m.o.

[kennedy]

moisture should begin to blossom out here soon for N. Ga and expand quickly in NC and SC from about 77, west. HPC isn't going with very much as for 5 day totals, guess they're going by the models verbatim, which do look too dry i.m.o.

[/quote

When do you think severe weather will arrive? I am so afraid this is gonna be hail damage like we had in April. Hope everyone stays safe

[buckeyefan1]

65/54 currently with partly cloudy skies

CAE.....

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE HAIL POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST

AREA PLUS THE H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS INITIALLY

DRY AND THE MODELS KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE H85 WINDS.

THIS WOULD INDICATE LIMITED COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND THE

MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE

STRONG. THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGED FROM 20 TO 60 PERCENT. THE SREF

GUIDANCE WAS 60 TO 80 PERCENT. THE MIXED SIGNALS SUPPORTED

AVERAGING THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTED POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THE

LATEST ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED H5 TEMPERATURES

LOWERING TO NEAR -19 C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN CROSS

TOTALS NEAR 28 AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 54. THESE VALUES PLUS WET

BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET SUPPORT HAIL WITH SOME OF THE

THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS INDICATED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000

AND LI/S -2 TO -3. THEREFORE...BELIEVE ANY HAIL WILL BE MAINLY

LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR

WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CAPE AND LI VALUES INDICATED

A LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOWERED THE TEMPERATURE

GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD UPPER LOW MOVING

OVER THE AREA.

[DaculaWeather]

We might be setting a new record minimum high temp today:

RECORDS FOR 05-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE

STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

KAHN 94 1933 60 1910 69 1933 41 1973

KATL 91 1962 61 1910 74 1899 39 1973

1944

1899

KCSG 95 1962 73 2006 70 1992 45 1973

1980

KMCN 95 1977 68 1910 70 1963 43 1973

1962 1915

Nice

[Lookout]

We might be setting a new record minimum high temp today:

RECORDS FOR 05-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE

STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

KAHN 94 1933 60 1910 69 1933 41 1973

KATL 91 1962 61 1910 74 1899 39 1973

1944

1899

KCSG 95 1962 73 2006 70 1992 45 1973

1980

KMCN 95 1977 68 1910 70 1963 43 1973

1962 1915

Nice

]

It didn't feel too bad this morning here, even had mostly sunny skies around 7 to 8 am. But since then, clouds have thickened up, the wind has picked up, and rain is developing...and it feels quite cold now. Temp is about 60 with dp of 48, if it rains it should drop into the 50s. Brrrr..not bad for the middle of may.

There is rain forming but still not reaching the ground here. I'm hoping I can squeeze as much as possible out of this batch because it's likely all I'm going to get. I don't expect I will get a lot but am hoping it could rain enough to knock the dust down and help out the grass. I really need it as I said in an earlier post, the top soil is very dry and the grass is dying by the hour it looks like. It's really frustrating to see the models put out so much rain with this system as soon as it passes us while I'll be lucky to get an tenth or two.

[rosie]

Found a few raindrops on the way to Ellijay, nothing here so far. Currently 56/50 and feels downright uncomfortable outside.