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LithiaWx

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I'm not sure who to believe, Foothills or James Spann in Birmingham. Spann says no serious severe weather threat the next 15 days. I would think a major hailstorm would constitute a serious severe weather threat.

Spann says no severe likely overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Robert has Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday morning outlined as a possible time for severe weather. :whistle::rolleyes:

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Foothills does an amazing job. I have seen numerous times where he was either ahead of most mets or just plain called it dead on. He's money in my book, nobody is perfect but he does have a nice record. He predicted the extended wet period in Early April, he caught onto many of the SE snowstorms last year and had predictions that were very accurate ie amounts and timing. Just this week he called for a significant event in Nc/SC and sure enough it happened. Secretly I was doubting him big time on that one but yet again he delivered.

You are so right!

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Is there some kind of wedge of cool air in the Carolinas ? It's almost 30 degrees warmer here in GA than in Raleigh.

We still have significant northerly flow from the cutoff low located offshore, and the decaying cloud remnants of the MCS that occurred yesterday over the great lakes is feeding down, causing extensive cloud cover.

2usyf0y.jpg

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Congrats again Phil. Thanks Rosie and Hawks for the nice words as well. I just looked at the 18z GFS and it still looks impressive along the path of the 5H system. It maximizes strength around western TN to western GA or ATL area, with ABS vort and the height and thknss are plenty low enough to come through during the day with very active T'storms around the core. The GFS is the coldest model and might be the outlier, best bet might be a blend but then again, one of the models is going to be pretty off. In the end though, both have a fujiwara effect with 2 ULL's merging into one, thanks to the Canada ridge. Here's an animation. One other thing the physics of a strong 5H as it rounds the base of a long wave trough, and in this case, stalls and gets pulled back, with this particularly track, is usually a big multi-inch rain event on the nw shield as the sfc low develops. So that would place northern GA and central to western Carolinas at first in that location late Monday night and Tuesday. Atleast thats how it looks now, could change up of course, but the GFS is being pretty consistent. Basically any location in or near or just north of the ULL will probably be where the most active wx occurs, as it goes from the Bootheel of MO to western, southern TN, northern third of Al, GA and western CArolinas MOnday (Carolinas overnight ) then slowing down Tuesday with much of Carolinas (cool unstable west/warm unstable east) and the Apps.

Plenty of time to watch this evolve

.post-38-0-79560100-1305245519.gif

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Spann says no severe likely overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Robert has Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday morning outlined as a possible time for severe weather. :whistle::rolleyes:

He was confused because he believes both of them live and forecast in the Tennessee Valley.:devilsmiley: Seriously though, questioning Foothills on this board after the run he has had is not a good idea. He's on a hot streak like I've never seen with at met.

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He was confused because he believes both of them live and forecast in the Tennessee Valley.:devilsmiley: Seriously though, questioning Foothills on this board after the run he has had is not a good idea. He's on a hot streak like I've never seen with at met.

+1 ^_^

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S....

...ERN U.S...

BROAD ZONE OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD REGIONS EAST OF

THE MS RIVER AS ERN DAKOTAS LOW DROPS SOUTH FORCING TN VALLEY TROUGH

DOWNSTREAM TO A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL KY SWD ALONG THE AL/GA

BORDER AT 15/00Z. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE

PARTICULARLY STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...H5 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF

30KT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF GA/NRN FL

RESULTING IN SFC-6KM VALUES MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED

MULTI-CELL UPDRAFT CLUSTERS. IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER

HEATING WILL BE NOTED THROUGH MID DAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR STATES

OF AL/GA/FL INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT

FOR NUMEROUS ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING

COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUXTAPOSE ITSELF WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS A

RESULT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE

WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD AID INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TSTMS AND PERHAPS

ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY

STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

OF SOME CONCERN IS THE PROSPECT FOR VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES

TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN A FLOW REGIME

THAT WOULD SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. WITH

H5 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL TO MINUS 12C THIS WILL LIKELY

RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIALLY

FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBS FOR

THIS REGION BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER

OUTLOOKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

FARTHER NORTH...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO

DEVELOP FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS...NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH

VALLEY AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS ZONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY

STRONG AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN

REGIONS FARTHER SOUTH AS SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 500 J/KG AS

OPPOSED TO VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG NEAR THE GULF COAST OF FL.

FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBS FOR SEVERE

HAIL/WIND...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

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He was confused because he believes both of them live and forecast in the Tennessee Valley.:devilsmiley: Seriously though, questioning Foothills on this board after the run he has had is not a good idea. He's on a hot streak like I've never seen with at met.

thanks. But i' ain't perfect ! I'm waiting to see if the GFS goes back to its consolidated 5H closed system, it lost it on 00z run mostly, and is now a blend like the ECMWF. It looks further north and has a lot of additional vorts diving down from Canada. It would still have to be watched and does look very strong and even neg. tilt over the eastern Carolinas, with a ton of steep lapse rates under the height falls over a big chunk around the Southern Apps region of TN, Al, GA and western Carolinas. I'm talking about the event Monday into early Tuesday. W/out that strong, closed consolidated 5h system crossing over, it wouldn't be nearly as bad, but its too early to pull the plug on the chances yet. Still unsettled though with a messy closed low over the Ohio Valley or central Apps mid week.

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This weekend is the worst timing for me in terms of the rain. I am scheduled to play and outdoor music festival today and again on Saturday.

:( I hope the rain(in your area) stays away long enough for your show. I understand your pain.....Saturday is our 21st annual crawfish boil. :wub::lol:

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Slight risk up for most of NC/SC.Let's see what happens today.

CAROLINAS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF SC/NC AND SOUTHERN VA /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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wx_brad just posted on his twitter: Severe Weather Watch may be issued shortly for the mountains...

In my opinion I think watches might be warranted further east in the Carolinas as well. As the cloudiness burns off this afternoon across the Piedmont and Coastal plain of NC, there will be a lot of different boundaries in place which should act as the focal point for convection. In addition, there are some major height falls occurring across the south east which will help to steepen lapse rates as the surface warms this afternoon. This will allow CAPE to approach values upwards of 2000 J/Kg across the piedmont. Combine this will just a little bit of bulk shear across the Eastern Carolinas and the atmosphere is actually quite favorable for severe storms this afternoon across the eastern portions of the Carolinas.

Just take a look at the forecasting sounding from Florence, SC. We have quite a bit of CAPE actually (although the nam might be overdone with around 3000 J/Kg) combined with a bit of shear due to veering winds from the surface (SSE at 10 knots) to 600mb (WNW at 32 knots). While the shear alone is not that impressive, thanks to the instability, we could get some decent hail producing thunderstorms in eastern NC.

23vx8wi.png

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Foothills does an amazing job. I have seen numerous times where he was either ahead of most mets or just plain called it dead on. He's money in my book, nobody is perfect but he does have a nice record. He predicted the extended wet period in Early April, he caught onto many of the SE snowstorms last year and had predictions that were very accurate ie amounts and timing. Just this week he called for a significant event in Nc/SC and sure enough it happened. Secretly I was doubting him big time on that one but yet again he delivered.

Foothills/Robert has always done an amazing job, really from the moment he started posting back on eastern. He is an expert on the climatology and the micro climates of the carolinas (especially the western carolinas) and north Ga and that allows him to be so good because he uses his knowledge of past systems and those micro climates to gauge what will/might happen. Often times you don't see that from offices like FFC, they just blindly follow the models. In fact, you see that at times here on this board from other mets. . His enthusiasm is contagious too..it's pretty cool to see a well seasoned met get excited over the weather.

It's always been an honor for this board to have him around imo and a pleasure to hear his thoughts.

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ww0297_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 297

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

110 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA

PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

EASTERN TENNESSEE

PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 700

PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF ROME GEORGIA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING ALONG INSTABILITY LINE

MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NWRN GA. WITH AIR MASS NOW MDTLY

UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN

INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS CONTINUED DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF

THE LINE.

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Foothills/Robert has always done an amazing job, really from the moment he started posting back on eastern. He is an expert on the climatology and the micro climates of the carolinas (especially the western carolinas) and north Ga and that allows him to be so good because he uses his knowledge of past systems and those micro climates to gauge what will/might happen. Often times you don't see that from offices like FFC, they just blindly follow the models. In fact, you see that at times here on this board from other mets. . His enthusiasm is contagious too..it's pretty cool to see a well seasoned met get excited over the weather.

It's always been an honor to have him around imo and a pleasure to hear his thoughts.

Agreed, Robert does a great job in the region, and a lot of what I have learned was from his great analysis and forecasts through the past several years! I don't think I'll live down when I was adamant about no snow in the French Broad river valley back in December last year, when he was very keen on there being enough adiabatic cooling to give us a "surprise" few inches of snow. Of course I'd have to end up eating my own words. You can't teach experience!

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Foothills/Robert has always done an amazing job, really from the moment he started posting back on eastern. He is an expert on the climatology and the micro climates of the carolinas (especially the western carolinas) and north Ga and that allows him to be so good because he uses his knowledge of past systems and those micro climates to gauge what will/might happen. Often times you don't see that from offices like FFC, they just blindly follow the models. In fact, you see that at times here on this board from other mets. . His enthusiasm is contagious too..it's pretty cool to see a well seasoned met get excited over the weather.

It's always been an honor for this board to have him around imo and a pleasure hear to his thoughts.

Absolutely! :thumbsup:

Also just noticed a sx watch has been issued as was speculated a few posts back. Mby has missed all the action the last couple of weeks so hopefully I will cash in some today :devilsmiley:

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Absolutely! :thumbsup:

Also just noticed a sx watch has been issued as was speculated a few posts back. Mby has missed all the action the last couple of weeks so hopefully I will cash in some today :devilsmiley:

missed my county by one to the north. Still looking for a stray serve storm but I would much rather be centered in the watch lol.

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It's always been an honor for this board to have him around imo and a pleasure to hear his thoughts.

Agreed, Robert does a great job in the region,

Absolutely! :thumbsup:

Also just noticed a sx watch has been issued as was speculated a few posts back. Mby has missed all the action the last couple of weeks so hopefully I will cash in some today :devilsmiley:

wow thanks to everybody on the nice compliments. Means a lot (boosts me on an otherwise dreary Friday). Hopefully some good storms get areas (like GA) that have missed out lately.

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Foothills/Robert has always done an amazing job, really from the moment he started posting back on eastern. He is an expert on the climatology and the micro climates of the carolinas (especially the western carolinas) and north Ga and that allows him to be so good because he uses his knowledge of past systems and those micro climates to gauge what will/might happen. Often times you don't see that from offices like FFC, they just blindly follow the models. In fact, you see that at times here on this board from other mets. . His enthusiasm is contagious too..it's pretty cool to see a well seasoned met get excited over the weather.

It's always been an honor for this board to have him around imo and a pleasure to hear his thoughts.

+1 Always great! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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