eyewall Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 It was quite a day with the splitting supercells. The first cell that formed in Columbus Co drifted SE, then S, the SW...presumably following the seabreeze. It did have quite a hook and we saw some decent lowerings but nothing too serious. That is the same storm that produced the golfball to tennis ball sized hail in and around North Myrtle Beach. In my opinion, the best storms were the splitting supercells over Florence, Marion and northern Horry Co. We had numerous reports of baseball to softball sized hail in all of those counties with the greatest concentration around the Conway area. Lots of broken windshields and dented cars around today. Round 2 was impressive with the MCC but for the most part looked to remain just below severe criteria. Although there were a few reports of golfballs and wind damage. I agree on the spliting cells near Florence. I was curious to actual ground reports from people who post here. Incredible hail sizes for this area of the country! Are you in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Plenty of pictures here to post. Most are trees that have either lost a huge branch or two, or fell completely. The only picture from my yard (Small to medium sized branches). The rest are from other parts of the town... Wow, Impressive images!! Up in Asheville we pretty much missed the brunt of the action last night. Only ended up with around .65 total here with some moderate winds. Todays storms were impressive in spots. As I was coming down to Greenville, SC from Asheville, I saw a nice rain shaft on I-26 as I was coming down the mountain with an embedded rainbow. It was a lot more vivid than the photo below, but wasn't able to snap a picture with my phone quick enough. It was quite impressive just off the slope of the mountain looking down into Upstate, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 From Morganton, NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Lots of damage around town from the storms last night. Will try and upload videos of damage tomorrow. Many without power and one school even closed today due to lack of power. I sure wish these extreme storms would come through during the day to be more visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 For reference this is what softball sized hail really looks like (From OKC last year). The pool got all the attention but this video really shows it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTpS01dpv0E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congrats on the red tag Phil! Sorry we are gonna lose you. Storms must have missed Asheville as Weaverville got a couple good ones, last night & this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congrats on the red tag Phil! Sorry we are gonna lose you. Storms must have missed Asheville as Weaverville got a couple good ones, last night & this morning. I spent the night in downtown Asheville last night and we had a very strong storm or 2. The one right before midnight especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 saturday afternoon could get pretty interesting w/ that weak upper low heading eastward. the core is in the 950's dm range moving into an 80's airmass. Peak at the NAM dynamics Precip' water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Goodness, it has been toasty the past few days! We've tied or broken record highs the past two days and will make a good run at breaking another record today... This heat is getting ridiculous and we need the rain! If this is a sign of things to come for the summer then it is going to be a LONG summer. Luckily, we will break the ridge down tomorrow and allow a few thunderstorms to bubble up as the ULL gets closer. Unfortunately, the pattern doesn't look as wet as previously thought, but I'll take the rain when we can get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Goodness, it has been toasty the past few days! We've tied or broken record highs the past two days and will make a good run at breaking another record today... This heat is getting ridiculous and we need the rain! If this is a sign of things to come for the summer then it is going to be a LONG summer. Luckily, we will break the ridge down tomorrow and allow a few thunderstorms to bubble up as the ULL gets closer. Unfortunately, the pattern doesn't look as wet as previously thought, but I'll take the rain when we can get it! Welcome to spring in the desert SE Candyman At least you are on the fringes of this heat vortex that Tony says is centered around CAE I'm looking forward to another chance(or two) these next few days CAE... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A PAIR OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS PROGGED TO DUMBBELL THRU THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ON MONDAY AS THE GFS BRINGS IT OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CREATE A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS THEN KICKS THE LOW OUT FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE TN VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 congrats on the red tag phil!!! that monster storm in nw sc last night kept moving slowly se (towards myb) until about 5 miles away it just disappeared. talk about a fast falling apart storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Welcome to spring in the desert SE Candyman At least you are on the fringes of this heat vortex that Tony says is centered around CAE I'm looking forward to another chance(or two) these next few days I'm just not used to the heat without a breeze! I grew up in Sarasota, where a seabreeze helped A LOT, and went to FSU where it was also hot (they hit 97 in Tallahassee yesterday ) but at least they have a little bit of a breeze as well... All in all I'm worried about this summer and how dry it's going to be unless we get a tropical system to move in here.... The way it's going though, that will hit the gulf states and go west of me I guess it's time to explain to the TV audience that we will be hot and dry the next 4 months and take a long vacation to Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 the GFS has a strong cold upper low coming in Monday for GA and the Carolinas right after. It looks like a Winter track, 546 thkns and a slow moving bowling ball that goes across TN down to GA and then up the Carolinas. Its back and forth on whether it phases with the northern Stream thanks to the block in Canada, but either way, a cold upper low like that in mid May is going to be mega-hail maker near its core during the peak of the afternoon. So at some point the timing will have be watched as to which areas experience another episode of extremely large hail. Its coming ,no doubt if its right in its track and most models agree on the scenario at less than 120 hours out. As we all know, ULL are always exciting when they come through the Southeast, and this one is extremely well developed and moves at a decent pace without falling apart. Anyone under its track will be game from TN to GA to the Carolinas then up the coast. Excellent dynamics and rich air to work with, so once again there could be everything with it from high winds, big hail and heavy rain to tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congrats Phil! Big accomplishment and good luck with your career! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congratulations on graduating college Phil! Those of us who have been around for a long time know you deserve it! Good luck with what should be a kick ass career! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congrats Phil! Wish I had one of those! And we will definitely miss you when you go! I'm assuming your weather station goes with you, let me know if you get a new station ID and I'll update you in the AWF member station page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congrats on the red tag Phil! Sorry we are gonna lose you. Storms must have missed Asheville as Weaverville got a couple good ones, last night & this morning. congrats on the red tag phil!!! that monster storm in nw sc last night kept moving slowly se (towards myb) until about 5 miles away it just disappeared. talk about a fast falling apart storm Congrats Phil! Big accomplishment and good luck with your career! Congratulations on graduating college Phil! Those of us who have been around for a long time know you deserve it! Good luck with what should be a kick ass career! Congrats Phil! Wish I had one of those! And we will definitely miss you when you go! I'm assuming your weather station goes with you, let me know if you get a new station ID and I'll update you in the AWF member station page. Haha wow... thanks for the love guys ! I am heading up to Albany, NY for grad school in August, so my station will remain operational until around that time. I'll see what I can do about getting a station at my new location, as I'm not even sure where I'll be living yet, and it's looking more likely to be an apartment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Congrats Phil! Even though I was only around ya for one semester at UNCA and didnt know to well you always seem to steal the show (in a good way)! Perhaps luck is not needed with such talent but hey good luck anyway bro! Dont forget us wanna be's here in the SE when you move off to better opportunities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 the GFS has a strong cold upper low coming in Monday for GA and the Carolinas right after. It looks like a Winter track, 546 thkns and a slow moving bowling ball that goes across TN down to GA and then up the Carolinas. Its back and forth on whether it phases with the northern Stream thanks to the block in Canada, but either way, a cold upper low like that in mid May is going to be mega-hail maker near its core during the peak of the afternoon. So at some point the timing will have be watched as to which areas experience another episode of extremely large hail. Its coming ,no doubt if its right in its track and most models agree on the scenario at less than 120 hours out. As we all know, ULL are always exciting when they come through the Southeast, and this one is extremely well developed and moves at a decent pace without falling apart. Anyone under its track will be game from TN to GA to the Carolinas then up the coast. Excellent dynamics and rich air to work with, so once again there could be everything with it from high winds, big hail and heavy rain to tornadoes. While I agree with you that there certainly is a potential for hail just due to the cold temperatures aloft... I don't think this is setting up to be a classical severe weather producing ULL but more of a big soaking rain event. I would really like to see the upper level feature located further north and west of the southeast in order to maximize the amount of directional shear with height across the region. Right now the models show the best shear that aid in supercell development located further south over southern GA/FL.... while the best CAPE is located further north over eastern NC. Things look a little better by 132 hours... since the speed shear increases quite a bit over the area of max CAPE in eastern NC, but its hardly the classical setup we were looking at during both of the April outbreaks that occurred in eastern NC. Of course basing this on one model run is rather foolish, and I think if we see this upper level feature shift further NW or phase with the broad eastern trough progged during this time, our chances for severe weather may increase by quite a margin. Really too early to get down to the specifics yet. However, at this point I think the main story will be heavy rainfall, especially for the escarpment across Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Robert, a similar upper level low crushed the mtns with snow years ago in May. Not the same dynamics i know, but alas I have to be at the top of Mt Mitchell all day Monday. No cold core..I would assume... to drag down to 6000 feet ? the GFS has a strong cold upper low coming in Monday for GA and the Carolinas right after. It looks like a Winter track, 546 thkns and a slow moving bowling ball that goes across TN down to GA and then up the Carolinas. Its back and forth on whether it phases with the northern Stream thanks to the block in Canada, but either way, a cold upper low like that in mid May is going to be mega-hail maker near its core during the peak of the afternoon. So at some point the timing will have be watched as to which areas experience another episode of extremely large hail. Its coming ,no doubt if its right in its track and most models agree on the scenario at less than 120 hours out. As we all know, ULL are always exciting when they come through the Southeast, and this one is extremely well developed and moves at a decent pace without falling apart. Anyone under its track will be game from TN to GA to the Carolinas then up the coast. Excellent dynamics and rich air to work with, so once again there could be everything with it from high winds, big hail and heavy rain to tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Haha wow... thanks guys for the love guys ! I am heading up to Albany, NY for grad school in August, so my station will remain operational until around that time. I'll see what I can do about getting a station at my new location, as I'm not even sure where I'll be living yet, and it looking more likely to be an apartment. Congrats Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Robert, a similar upper level low crushed the mtns with snow years ago in May. Not the same dynamics i know, but alas I have to be at the top of Mt Mitchell all day Monday. No cold core..I would assume... to drag down to 6000 feet ? You might be thinking of the May 1992 event... I believe that dropped 57" inches of snow at Mt. Pisgah and 22" of snow at Mt. Mitchel!! While this event will be similar, the upcoming ULL will have a lot of air mass modification before it reaches the SE as it traverses the great plains and Mississippi valley. So it won't have quite the cold pool that the May 1992 ULL had that dropped literally straight south from the Canadian provinces. Notice that while the 500mb heights are similar in both cases, the thickness is significantly warmer with this upcoming event, so the mean layer temperature below 500mb is significantly warmer. May 7th, 1992: GFS Forecast 114 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Spot on and hoped someone would post the charts. Subtle differences in 500mb will make all the differences in the world. However, I think the weather at 6000 feet will essentially "suck". Thanks Red Tag Phil! You might be thinking of the May 1992 event... I believe that dropped 57" inches of snow at Mt. Pisgah and 22" of snow at Mt. Mitchel!! While this event will be similar, the upcoming ULL will have a lot of air mass modification before it reaches the SE as it traverses the great plains and Mississippi valley. So it won't have quite the cold pool that the May 1992 ULL had that dropped literally straight south from the Canadian provinces. Notice that while the 500mb heights are similar in both cases, the thickness is significantly warmer with this upcoming event, so the mean layer temperature below 500mb is significantly warmer. May 7th, 1992: GFS Forecast 114 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 While I agree with you that there certainly is a potential for hail just due to the cold temperatures aloft... I don't think this is setting up to be a classical severe weather producing ULL but more of a big soaking rain event. I would really like to see the upper level feature located further north and west of the southeast in order to maximize the amount of directional shear with height across the region. Right now the models show the best shear that aid in supercell development located further south over southern GA/FL.... while the best CAPE is located further north over eastern NC. Things look a little better by 132 hours... since the speed shear increases quite a bit over the area of max CAPE in eastern NC, but its hardly the classical setup we were looking at during both of the April outbreaks that occurred in eastern NC. Of course basing this on one model run is rather foolish, and I think if we see this upper level feature shift further NW or phase with the broad eastern trough progged during this time, our chances for severe weather may increase by quite a margin. Really too early to get down to the specifics yet. However, at this point I think the main story will be heavy rainfall, especially for the escarpment across Appalachians. Phil, at this point I haven't looked at the parameters, just synoptics. The GFS continues to show the basic setup of a moderately moving strong cold ULL, with a classic track for hail, thats my main thing right now. The rain, eventually probably would be a concern too esp on the northwest side as the inflection point near FFC bends, its extremely similar to the March 2009 track, much later in the season of course. I've seen lows this time of year that take that track usually have severe hailstorms, truly severe ones, which already we've seen this season plenty of times even with less dynamics than this. As for severe, I'd think Monday afternoon as it rounds the bend near Ala, GA and the wstern Carolinas to be hit very hard with a quasilinear bowline and a separate meso circulation with major hail under the core...not sure about tornadoes yet, but April/May cutoffs are so cold core that weak ones can occur under them. Anyway, the ULL should cruise across central SC overnight and begin to phase with the northern stream , which GFS has been showing or hinting at for a very long time, and that one also has very cold air for May. If the GFS is right then I'd bet major hailstorms from near HSV-BHM Atlanta to Athens are coming Monday afternoon/evening..perfect position and timing (so far) In essence, after Tuesday its still an educated guess but the GFS has been most steadfast as opposed to the others. The 12z wants to fully cutoff again over the Central Apps Tue/Wed, with pretty cold air (+3). I found an old image I found from the GFS I saved a week ago. Not that bad for a 240 hour map, of course it hasn't happened yet. Robert, a similar upper level low crushed the mtns with snow years ago in May. Not the same dynamics i know, but alas I have to be at the top of Mt Mitchell all day Monday. No cold core..I would assume... to drag down to 6000 feet ? I think Phil covered that one. Yeah it was my graduation week in Asheville. I drove to Roan, TN for the best synoptic snow I've ever seen, then a couple days later to the Pisgah Inn as it was ending. Stepped into waist deep snow. I wish I took pictures then. The sky was clearing up , with scattered silver dollar flakes falling. Awesome sight to see that deep of snow and no wind. Believe it or not if the GFS isn't too far off, then enough cold air might wrap into the ULL on Tuesday or so near the Appalachians to give some high elevation snow somewhere. Still a pretty big long shot though, but sure not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I'm not sure who to believe, Foothills or James Spann in Birmingham. Spann says no serious severe weather threat the next 15 days. I would think a major hailstorm would constitute a serious severe weather threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Haha wow... thanks guys for the love guys ! I am heading up to Albany, NY for grad school in August, so my station will remain operational until around that time. I'll see what I can do about getting a station at my new location, as I'm not even sure where I'll be living yet, and it looking more likely to be an apartment. I am jealous.I have an idea of where your new location in upstate ny will be.....one of those infamous LES belt locations lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 I'm not sure who to believe, Foothills or James Spann in Birmingham. Spann says no serious severe weather threat the next 15 days. I would think a major hailstorm would constitute a serious severe weather threat. Foothills does an amazing job. I have seen numerous times where he was either ahead of most mets or just plain called it dead on. He's money in my book, nobody is perfect but he does have a nice record. He predicted the extended wet period in Early April, he caught onto many of the SE snowstorms last year and had predictions that were very accurate ie amounts and timing. Just this week he called for a significant event in Nc/SC and sure enough it happened. Secretly I was doubting him big time on that one but yet again he delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Foothills does an amazing job. I have seen numerous times where he was either ahead of most mets or just plain called it dead on. He's money in my book, nobody is perfect but he does have a nice record. He predicted the extended wet period in Early April, he caught onto many of the SE snowstorms last year and had predictions that were very accurate ie amounts and timing. Just this week he called for a significat event in Nc/SC and sure enough it happened. Secretly I was doubting him big time on that one but yet again he delivered. Remember they are forecasting for two completely different areas. So nc could be in the set up for hail and alamaba imm the clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 Remember they are forecasting for two completely different areas. So nc could be in the set up for hail and alamaba imm the clear even so Robert is on board for AL too. I'd bet major hailstorms from near HSV-BHM Atlanta to Athens are coming Monday afternoon/evening..perfect position and timing (so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 While I agree with you that there certainly is a potential for hail just due to the cold temperatures aloft... I don't think this is setting up to be a classical severe weather producing ULL but more of a big soaking rain event. I would really like to see the upper level feature located further north and west of the southeast in order to maximize the amount of directional shear with height across the region. Right now the models show the best shear that aid in supercell development located further south over southern GA/FL.... while the best CAPE is located further north over eastern NC. Things look a little better by 132 hours... since the speed shear increases quite a bit over the area of max CAPE in eastern NC, but its hardly the classical setup we were looking at during both of the April outbreaks that occurred in eastern NC. Of course basing this on one model run is rather foolish, and I think if we see this upper level feature shift further NW or phase with the broad eastern trough progged during this time, our chances for severe weather may increase by quite a margin. Really too early to get down to the specifics yet. However, at this point I think the main story will be heavy rainfall, especially for the escarpment across Appalachians. I'll take the rain! And a Super Congrats to you Phil !!! Don't forget about us down here when winter comes around. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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