LithiaWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 With only 10 days till April is over I thought it would be a good time to start a thread on May and what it has in the cards for the southeast this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 There's good signs that the -NAO is resurging for May, and we're entering a time of MCC activity. The GFS and ECMWF both have this, strong west based Greenland blocking,and this time of year that equates to convective complexes coming down from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, straight into the MidAtlantic or Carolinas. I think there will be a boundary numerous times somewhere between that area, stretching northwest to southeast, meaning a good chance of storms on both sides of the boundary, with cold rains in the Ohio Valley and MidAtlantic to very active thunderstorms on the other side of the boundary in the TENN valley and Apps region. This bodes well for the central Carolinas and eastern sections down to eastern GA to get into some rainfall which is badly needed. Unfortunately, there will be major thunderstorms, and a lot of hailers , esp. in and around the APPS (usually that happens in this flow). There's also a secondary max of tornadoes that occur in NC with nw flow storms in May and June, esp. in the lee sections west of I-77, just something to keep in mind. Otherwise, I'm expecting a very active first half of May for a big chunk of the East and on both sides of the Apps, with rainfall above normal generally in my green zone. I think particularly high rain amounts will occur in the Appalachians and in zone from Ind, Oh, WVA, VA ,KY, and TN/NC mtns. The flip side is a bad drought continuing and heatwaves beginning in western Texas and the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 There's good signs that the -NAO is resurging for May, and we're entering a time of MCC activity. The GFS and ECMWF both have this, strong west based Greenland blocking,and this time of year that equates to convective complexes coming down from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, straight into the MidAtlantic or Carolinas. I think there will be a boundary numerous times somewhere between that area, stretching northwest to southeast, meaning a good chance of storms on both sides of the boundary, with cold rains in the Ohio Valley and MidAtlantic to very active thunderstorms on the other side of the boundary in the TENN valley and Apps region. This bodes well for the central Carolinas and eastern sections down to eastern GA to get into some rainfall which is badly needed. Unfortunately, there will be major thunderstorms, and a lot of hailers , esp. in and around the APPS (usually that happens in this flow). There's also a secondary max of tornadoes that occur in NC with nw flow storms in May and June, esp. in the lee sections west of I-77, just something to keep in mind. Otherwise, I'm expecting a very active first half of May for a big chunk of the East and on both sides of the Apps, with rainfall above normal generally in my green zone. I think particularly high rain amounts will occur in the Appalachians and in zone from Ind, Oh, WVA, VA ,KY, and TN/NC mtns. The flip side is a bad drought continuing and heatwaves beginning in western Texas and the Southwest. Cant remember who it was now but someone from TWC or NOAA was on one of the news shows last night and was asked what the rest of the spring looked like and he pretty much said the pattern is going to hold and with the days getting longer and warmer he was afraid that May was going to be as bad if not worse than April. We are already really putting pressure on FEMA and other relief agencies, and the dollar amount of damage done by spring storms by the end of May is liable to be mind boggling, then throw in a few landfalling hurricanes in the summer and this is shaping up to be a very costly year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 While it's great that we are getting continuous chances of rain for once, I feared about us experiencing extreme storminess across the Southeast. This volatile pattern that we're in has proven to be one of, if not, the most impressive setups I have ever seen during a Spring season. Considering the events that we have already been through with the tornadic outbreaks and such, it begs the question: Are we possibly repeating history's worst severe weather events this year and if so, what analogs could we tie in into this? I don't know about the rest of you folks, but I sense that we have been overdue for several nasty rounds of extreme weather on a level like recent times to occur and unfortunately its decided to rear its head for this Spring. It is very interesting of how this season has been so far after a cold and snowy winter, and I had a feeling this could mean an active Spring was in order but that's just my thinking. This will surely be a season to speak of for years to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Another big rain event for the lower Midwest , same areas basically that have had 15" to 20" the last 4 weeks. This time it looks like ARK is ground zero. Still some questions on where the low closes off, but it doesn't look like a big deal for east of the mtns in GA or the CArolinas where we still need rain, but some is likely since the front is slow moving. I still think in a couple of weeks the Carolinas and eastern GA will be in a better pattern for rain, unfortunately storms could become severe with that setup as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Another big rain event for the lower Midwest , same areas basically that have had 15" to 20" the last 4 weeks. This time it looks like ARK is ground zero. Still some questions on where the low closes off, but it doesn't look like a big deal for east of the mtns in GA or the CArolinas where we still need rain, but some is likely since the front is slow moving. I still think in a couple of weeks the Carolinas and eastern GA will be in a better pattern for rain, unfortunately storms could become severe with that setup as well. In a couple of weeks? I need some dry weather for a while. Seems like rain two and three times a week lately. Grass is growing out of control!!!! I know you need some but i will gladly let you get it for a week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 In a couple of weeks? I need some dry weather for a while. Seems like rain two and three times a week lately. Grass is growing out of control!!!! I know you need some but i will gladly let you get it for a week or two well actually my area is doing pretty good on the rain this Spring, believe it or not. (but I don't foresee me ever wishing rains to cease LOL) I think the central and eastern Carolinas are more in need of it now, and still probably not quite good enough yet there to deliver good rains (usually when mega rains occur west of the Apps--the opposite occurs east of the Apps). This front will once again probably have little rain in central SC esp, and much more as you get nw into NC near your area. You're just in a great spot for rain seems like, no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 well actually my area is doing pretty good on the rain this Spring, believe it or not. (but I don't foresee me ever wishing rains to cease LOL) I think the central and eastern Carolinas are more in need of it now, and still probably not quite good enough yet there to deliver good rains (usually when mega rains occur west of the Apps--the opposite occurs east of the Apps). This front will once again probably have little rain in central SC esp, and much more as you get nw into NC near your area. You're just in a great spot for rain seems like, no matter what. I know Robert we all will take rain but its hard to get work done in my line of work when it rains for 2 and 3 days every 5-10 days. Hard to make money like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Nobody has said anything but "could" there be a chance of some light frost Wednesday night for the typical cold areas (outside mtns)? From RAD FORECAST 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES FOR THURSDAY MORNING MORE TYPICAL FOR MID MARCH. WINDS SHOULD CALM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF TODAYS MORNING MODELS CONTINUE THESE COOL THICKNESSES THE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 40S WILL HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER PLAYING THE GENERAL MODEL COLD BIAS IS STILL JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 And May is, on average, the busiest month for tornadoes. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 And May is, on average, the busiest month for tornadoes. Not a good sign. Is there a chance of severe weather coming up ? I sure hope not ....................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 No, nothing right now but we're just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Slight chance of severe weather today in western NC. If we are going to break out of these low clouds, we need to do so quick. Its 11:00 a.m. and only 68 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Sun broke through about 20 minutes ago here ..... muggy and 76 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Getting a decent t-storm here, heavy core with probably small hail going just south, but a lot of thunder and some OK rain, but it will be over quick. Not expecting too much, probably only a tenth or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Getting a decent t-storm here, heavy core with probably small hail going just south, but a lot of thunder and some OK rain, but it will be over quick. Not expecting too much, probably only a tenth or less. radar looked great here about 30 minutes ago. i felt sure that the storm would hit, but it ended up looking much more impressive on radar than it was. a little rain, a couple of claps of thunder then the sun came back out. hopefully we can get those storms south of atl to move through n ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 WUUS51 KRNK 032248SVRRNK NCC005-009-171-193-VAC035-077-032345- /O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0105.110503T2248Z-110503T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 648 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN ASHE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWESTERN SURRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA * UNTIL 745 PM EDT. * AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAUREL SPRINGS...OR NEAR GLENDALE SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LAUREL SPRINGS... DOUGHTON PARK... WHITEHEAD... GLADE VALLEY... BARRETT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF QUARTER OR LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT... 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. && LAT...LON 3665 8084 3633 8081 3630 8135 3638 8137 TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 245DEG 25KT 3637 8129 $ DS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Getting some really nice steady rain here in Cobb. Soccer got cut short cause it was just pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Pretty nasty storm passing Abbeville. Might need to keep an eye on this one for the folks living northeast of this cell. It's had a bad history... Rotating Thunderstorm Abbeville County, SC Max Reflectivity: 70 dBZ Severe Hail: 80% Chance Hail: 100% Chance Max Hail Size: 2.50" Echo Top: 34,000 ft. VIL: 54 kg/m² Radar Site:JGX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 < Previous MD Could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Nice moderate to heavy rain for the past 30+ minutes. The storms seem to be training over my area right now and moving more south to north than west to east. That's good for the soil and plants but bad for getting the young kids to sleep... 0.24 inches in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 A few pretty nasty cells firing up and quite of few warnings are flying. Looks like the SPC should have left that slight risk up after all. That one cell in upstate SC is especially nasty looking..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I'm pretty surprised they never issued a watch for this line, there have been 3+ warnings running constantly for about the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I'm pretty surprised they never issued a watch for this line, there have been 3+ warnings running constantly for about the last 3 hours. They had parts of western NC in the slight risk this morning then changed it to remove that area from the slight risk. If anything they should have extended it further south lol.......Charlotte looks to get a decent hit if those storms hold up a few are marginally severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Watching the one crossing Cherokee county in SC. That storm has strengthened bit by bit for the past several minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Watching the one crossing Cherokee county in SC. That storm has strengthened bit by bit for the past several minutes. About to have the northern fringe pass right over me, it's been going for a while now. Very impressive lighting and thunder, and hear comes the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I just put the dog out and holy crap is it cold. Its 48 degrees with a wind driven rain. It feels like stepping back two months. Im sure Ill sleep good tonight. Its a shame I have to wake up so early.i bet SnoJoe sees some flurries tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I just put the dog out and holy crap is it cold. Its 48 degrees with a wind driven rain. It feels like stepping back two months. Im sure Ill sleep good tonight. Its a shame I have to wake up so early.i bet SnoJoe sees some flurries tonight. just got in from taking out my dog and noticed that too...its just pouring, windy and cold. there was a little thunder this evening, but nothing all that exciting. about .57" so far (which isnt all that exciting either lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Terrific thunderstorm. +50mph initial wind gust, torrential rain with plenty of CC lightning and thunder. The rain at one point fell so hard you would have thought you were beside a waterfall. There was also another point where the lightning produced the most unique sound. The thunder cracked on the west side and boomed on the east and then those sounds acted as if they switched sides ending with loud continuous rumbling for about 10 secs. Most unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Crazy tank in the temperatures this evening. Feels like winter again out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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