A Potentially Active Multiyear Tropical Cyclone Phase Coming Up For The East Coast

[bluewave]

I found some multiyear tropical cyclone analogs for the East Coast going forward.

These are close analog matches to the lull in activity that the East Coast has seen

during the 2009-2010 seasons:

1950-1951

1956-1957

2000-2001

Following these years tropical cyclone cyclone activity entered a more active

phase.

The level of the increase in the activity varied from year to year during the

more active periods.1952-1955 saw a very active phase along the

East Coast.In1958 the activity picked up again into the 1960's before

the AMO switched.In 2002 there was an increase in tropical storm activity

along the Carolina's followed by Hurricane Isabel in 2003.The next

seasons featured a very active 2004 pattern and varying levels

of activity through 2008.

I just wanted to add that though 1950 was active for Florida,the coast north

of there experienced a recurving pattern with storms to the east similar

to some of the analog years.

Cool summers were also a common thread with the beginning

of the calmer years.The first years of the quieter intervals along

the East Coast featured cool summers.In fact,the summers

of 1950,1956,2000,and 2009 averaged around a cool 72

degrees for NYC.I included a temperature chart for NYC

and a composite for the US.

[bronxx]

I found some multiyear tropical cyclone analogs for the East Coast going forward.

These are close analog matches to the lull in activity that the East Coast has seen

during the 2009-2010 seasons:

1950-1951

1956-1957

2000-2001

Following these years tropical cyclone cyclone activity entered a more active

phase.

What specifically is analogous in the atmosphere and/or ocean this spring and last to those years you listed?

[bluewave]

What specifically is analogous in the atmosphere and/or ocean this spring and last to those years you listed?

I was looking at years that featured back to back recurves or near misses for the East Coast with a focus

north of Florida.My first comparison was the 1950-1951 recurving pattern to the one during 2009-2010.

As with the other cases,the third year on featured closer in and landfall activity as compared to the

two previous years.

[bluewave]

These are the rest of my analogs featuring closer in and landfall activity by the third year with continuing activity in the years following:

[Ed Lizard]

Oddly enough, there is an Atlantic Tropics 2011 thread full of posts like this...

[bluewave]

Oddly enough, there is an Atlantic Tropics 2011 thread full of posts like this...

I saw mostly multiyear Atlantic Basin activity being discussed not multiyear East Coast landfall potential.