IMADreamer Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I really feel for the farmers. Sure the dying city of Cairo would be flooded but for all those that say the farmers know what they are getting into by being there, The same can be said for Cairo. When you live between two rivers you are going to lose some battles. The farms will take years to get back to where they were. When we lost our battle with the river in '93 it was nearly a decade before some soils recovered to the pre flood levels. The places where the levee broke, and then where the corp blew the levee on the south end of the district to let the water flow back into the river never recovered. Those areas filled up with sand and are unfarmable. There will be some of this with this situation. Anyway, it's going to be a sad night for someone down there. My prayers go out to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I can't imagine it wouldn't be cheaper to allow Cairo to flood than the valuable farmland. Cairo has almost no future. Might be better to buy everyone out there and let them move... I'm thinking this is a shortsighted economic decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I drove all the way down to Cairo last summer because I was curious what the town looked like. It truly was one of the more depressing trips I've taken. I've never seen such a ghost town, what was most sad was that you could see how beautiful of a city it once was. Here is a pic of the abandoned hospital in Cairo, And here is a pic of the completely abandoned downtown (the buildings lined both sides of the street up until just a few year ago when the left side structures were torn down) I'll definitely be watching to see how this plays out. Very difficult decision on what to "save" and what's more "important" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Game over for a lot of people around here - the NWS this morning raised crest levels by four or five feet. I heard Metropolis, IL is under a voluntary evacuation order! Stay safe, Beau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Great pics Trent... and that is proof positive why I'm not sure blowing the levee is a good idea. Now if doing so will relieve the pressure at Metropolis and Paducah, then ok I understand. But if it's just to protect Cairo... I think it would be best to compensate residents and let them move. EDIT Also great pics Beau... I hope the situation gets better down your way. I heard today that the Livingston Co. Courthouse was in threat of flooding because of a levee breach at Smithland... hope that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 We just heard and felt the explosion from the levee being blown Well crap. I was hoping they'd reconsider at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Numerous reports on Facebook of shaking across west KY and far southern IL - WPSD reports it shook their windows at the television station in Paducah - we could feel it here. Just incredible history being made. I heard an NWS Hydro guy say this was an "epic" flood (500 year) flood. History indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1006 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIRDS POINT NEW MADRID FLOODWAY LEVEE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND NEW MADRID COUNTIES. * UNTIL 1000 AM CDT TUESDAY * AT 1004 PM CDT...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS REPORTED THAT THE BIRDS POINT NEW MADRID FLOODWAY HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. FLOODWATERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FLOODWAY OVERNIGHT. THE FLOODWAY HAS BEEN EVACUATED. BECAUSE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS...PLEASE CHECK WITH LOCAL AUTHORITIES IF TRAVELING NEAR THIS AREA. DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRIERS! LAT...LON 3651 8947 3655 8948 3657 8954 3698 8918 3699 8912 3688 8912 3683 8917 3677 8912 3676 8917 3673 8920 3666 8917 3662 8920 3659 8920 3657 8925 3663 8933 3663 8936 3651 8941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganLion Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Numerous reports on Facebook of shaking across west KY and far southern IL - WPSD reports it shook their windows at the television station in Paducah - we could feel it here. Just incredible history being made. Reports of the sound and shaking from Sikeston, MO to Mayfield, KY to Union City, TN! Wow, that's a lot of explosives they had to have used! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Some pretty interesting stuff, I hadn't expected to see the hydrograph for the Ohio River @ Cairo to register that quickly from the Bird's Point levee explosion on the Mississippi just above Cairo..but it's fell of nearly half a foot and thus for now appearing to end the prospects of nearing the top of Cairo's protection. Further upstream Paducah's gauge is now forecast to crest at "only" 55.5' instead of the 58.5' that had been forecast. Cairo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Corps blows levee at Birds Point overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I haven't been on in a while. Been dealing with the end of the semester. But the rainfall in these parts have been epic none the less. I don't think I have ever seen this much rain ever in my lifetime. Just an insane 10 days of weather around here. As a fan of extreme weather, I have had enough and I'm ready for some sunshine. Luckily my area hasn't gotten much flooding because we only have a few creeks and streams. Hope everyone by the rivers stay safe like Beau and Macintosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Due to the flooding and anomalous weather conditions, planting of corn is way behind schedule. Last year, we were able to get in over 60% of the intended acreage by this date. As of the last report, we are only at 13%. Of course, last year was anomalous, too, as we had an excellent planting season. Still, this weather is cause for some concern. At best, a good chunk of the country will be forced to plant in less than ideal conditions. As we turn the bend towards the 2nd/3rd week of May, farmers will have to worry about pollination/heat/weather issues if their crops are not in the ground. All this translates into a very volatile market for corn (and soybeans). If you have any money lying around, throw it into some commodity ETF (such as CORN). I don't see any reason why we won't see a rally in the market. I've been wrong before, but there are many indicators that commodities may make a run, especially after last years near perfect market for lower prices. It's really a sad situation for those farmers in Mississippi County, though. They may be subsidized to a degree, but their way of life is being changed in a dramatic fashion. Mother nature sure has been relentless these past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Well I woke up to a flooded sunporch, garage, and 4 feet of water in my crawlspace. Not a good morning. And it won't stop raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Due to the flooding and anomalous weather conditions, planting of corn is way behind schedule. Last year, we were able to get in over 60% of the intended acreage by this date. As of the last report, we are only at 13%. Of course, last year was anomalous, too, as we had an excellent planting season. Still, this weather is cause for some concern. At best, a good chunk of the country will be forced to plant in less than ideal conditions. As we turn the bend towards the 2nd/3rd week of May, farmers will have to worry about pollination/heat/weather issues if their crops are not in the ground. All this translates into a very volatile market for corn (and soybeans). If you have any money lying around, throw it into some commodity ETF (such as CORN). I don't see any reason why we won't see a rally in the market. I've been wrong before, but there are many indicators that commodities may make a run, especially after last years near perfect market for lower prices. It's really a sad situation for those farmers in Mississippi County, though. They may be subsidized to a degree, but their way of life is being changed in a dramatic fashion. Mother nature sure has been relentless these past few weeks. I think Iowa is ahead of schedule on corn planting, they haven't been overly wet. However here in West Central Illinois we are way behind. Personally we are only about 30% done and my father said he was going to plant today which is the first time in maybe three weeks he's done so. I know everyone else is in the same boat. I agree, corn is probably something to invest in. It's already in short supply and I think it's only going to get less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Very true. Anyone living in a flood plain knows their day will eventually come. I want to be fair here about this issue. I do not live on the flood plain, but I have an issue with this idea that people shouldn't build on the flood plain idea. The simple truth is that the alleviul plain is some of the best cropland in the world and having people live on the plain is the only way to make use of it. Many people would starve if not for people who spend their lives working this land. Furthermore, things we take for granted like cotton for clothing are also primary crops on the plain. Basically, you have to have people living on the plain but they don't get the price they deserve for the risks they take due to price controls. So, as it stands, the government plays both sides. They control prices and then they subsidize their risks through disaster relief, FEMA, and the NFIP. So, it's either a total free market approach or full regulation. There doesn't appear to be a middle ground because people have to live there or people go hungry. Now, the problems with full levy protection are becoming readily apparent to most of you. They would not work if we had a 1927-level event which, despite gauge readings....we are nowhere close to 1927 in terms of water volume. Not even remotely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I drove all the way down to Cairo last summer because I was curious what the town looked like. It truly was one of the more depressing trips I've taken. I've never seen such a ghost town, what was most sad was that you could see how beautiful of a city it once was. I've been there...went through Cairo on accident trying to get from Paducah to I-55 one day. Cairo reminds me of a small-town version of Detroit in that there's basically noone there for unimaginable stretches. I went through downtown Cairo and I was just astonished at how nothing appears to have been there for years and there was noone around. I don't remember seeing anyone there and it was the middle of the day. I have to say that I don't really know why they are saving Cairo. There is very little production in Cairo from what I saw. It seems to me that they are choosing to destroy productive property just to save a virtual ghost town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I heard an NWS Hydro guy say this was an "epic" flood (500 year) flood. History indeed. How can it be a 500 year flood if it's nowhere near the water volume we say in the 20th century? Possibly, it could be for some very localized areas, but, in total, I don't see how we can call it that. Surely, we're not using just the river gauge readings. All we've done is create even more artificially-high readings on the river guages by keeping the water mostly restrained within the confines of the levee system. All of that water has to go somewhere. Look at some of the inundation maps from 1927 & 1937. I would like to see some decent water volume estimates but I don't think we're really close in terms of numbers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Look at this map for the LMRV from 1927 and I believe the same applies in regards to the upper MS River valley and the Ohio River as well. I don't think we can deem this a 500-year event until we see water volumes well in excess of the amounts we saw in the past. The guage readings themselves are going to be higher because we've made the walls of the bathtub higher but this does not mean that water volumes are equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 While this isn't nearly as big as problems down river, things are still bad up in the Wabash Valley. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN... EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY. * AT 1155 AM CDT...A LEVEE BREAK ON THE WABASH RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS. EVACUATION NOTIFICATION HAS BEEN MADE IN AFFECTED AREAS BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND LAWRENCE ALLISON FIRE DEPARTMENT. ILLINOIS 33 AND OLD U.S. 50 ARE CLOSED AT THIS TIME. MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE OR WILL SOON BE COVERED WITH WATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I think Iowa is ahead of schedule on corn planting, they haven't been overly wet. However here in West Central Illinois we are way behind. Personally we are only about 30% done and my father said he was going to plant today which is the first time in maybe three weeks he's done so. I know everyone else is in the same boat. I agree, corn is probably something to invest in. It's already in short supply and I think it's only going to get less. Indiana as a whole is only 2 to 5% done, which is a serious lag. The time frame of April 20th-May 15th is pretty key to most Indiana farmers for maximum yield. It looks like a good chunk of the Big 18 might face some yield issues. I am definitely putting more money into corn. 1) The supply will be short by harvest, almost guaranteed (either from yield or weather stresses later on in the season). 2) Demand for U.S. corn is pretty stable, even after Japan's crisis. 3) Speculator's will continue to enter the market due to crop reports, pushing prices up. HPC charts dump 1/2" to over 1" of rain within the region through the next 5 days. Guess we'll have to see what this does to progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Yikes I can't even fathom getting 15-20 inches of rain in one months time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Weather Channel Mike Seidel is in Metropolis on NBC news tonight. I didn't see Beau though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Weather Channel Mike Seidel is in Metropolis on NBC news tonight. I didn't see Beau though. He was running the cue cards. Sent from my Thunderbolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I heard an NWS Hydro guy say this was an "epic" flood (500 year) flood. History indeed. How do they know these things with any reasonable degree of confidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Weather Channel Mike Seidel is in Metropolis on NBC news tonight. Good assignment for him, no fire ants... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Before (4/29/10): After (4/29/11): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 So some of the Mississippi river tributaries are flowing backwards? http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/dpp/weather/all-eyes-on-the-mississippi-river-rpt-20110428 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The crest is moving downriver and getting much worse. Highest crests in history for New Madrid, Tiptonville, and Caruthersville, catastrophic flooding I'm sure. Levels already rising quickly down into Louisiana, watch out Baton Rouge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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