SpartyOn Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 This is a nightmare!!! God help those who live in a flood prone area. I think we may have a national story on our hands. I hope this does not pan out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 gfs rainfall 0-60 hours then 60-120 hrs :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Even with the system that just passed....still 10" of rain in the next 5 days for S. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 12z NAM still looking very bad..maybe shifted a little more north short term: 2-4 inches of rain fell over night along the OH river... at this time old MCV head may be over S IL...storms and rain redeveloing ahead of it...looks for very heavy rains today over the OH river much more then models have for during the day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 SPC meso WHILE THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS TO FAVOR LOCALES ALONG/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WHERE INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT N OF THE OH RIVER. TRAINING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER FROM NEAR EVV NEWD TO NEAR/S OF KCVG THROUGH 18Z. ..RACY.. 04/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 12z NAM still looking very bad..maybe shifted a little more north short term: 2-4 inches of rain fell over night along the OH river... at this time old MCV head may be over S IL...storms and rain redeveloing ahead of it...looks for very heavy rains today over the OH river much more then models have for during the day today I have a feeling we may be comparing photos from 1937 before it's all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 someone post the 120 hr rainfall total from the 12z gfs looks like a shift the the NW but still very heavy over a wide area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 someone post the 120 hr rainfall total from the 12z gfs looks like a shift the the NW but still very heavy over a wide area Small area of 12" along the OH River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 534< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...NRN KY...SRN OH...SWRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231551Z - 231715Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER IN SRN IND/NRN KY. BROAD...PERSIST AND MOIST WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY WAS AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING. INSPECTION OF 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME HAS ADVECTED QUITE FAR E SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL YIELD LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME ABOVE 1KM AT SPEEDS REACHING 55 KTS AT 6KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL BOWING STORM STRUCTURES GIVING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS TO FAVOR LOCALES ALONG/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WHERE INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT N OF THE OH RIVER. TRAINING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER FROM NEAR EVV NEWD TO NEAR/S OF KCVG THROUGH 18Z. ..RACY.. 04/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 12Z RGEM Total rain through 12Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Hydrologist in a conf call. words like "record flooding" being used. It is important we understand the magnitude. #nwspah #tristatewx It is imperative, that all weather based entities work together closely over the next several days. Incredible impacts possible. #FLOOD The media is one of our biggest partners. We must get the message across collectively about this potentially historic flood event. @johndissauer we are being told 1995 for the MS river and 1997 for the Ohio @johndissauer Right now it looks like Cairo will be hardest hit. Hydrologist informs me we are going public with contingencies today. #nwspah #tristatewx All quotes from TweetDeck Sounds like they are on top of things. Not a word out of LMK as of yet except for flash flooding, maybe with the afternoon discussion. If we get this much rain over such a wide area it's going to have no where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 I am not understanding the lack of a Flash Flood Watch for NW AR. TSA's graphics as well as HWO seem to strongly support it, as does the fact of a 1"+ soaker already this morning. I get that we may have a break in the action for a while today, but I don't think this helps public awareness. From the 1159am HWO in the Day 2+ section: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Is that yours? Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Euro still showing about 6" here. It has consistently been on the wetter side. Not that I wish the folks south of me ill but I really hope this axis doesn't shift any farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 I hope the NWS offices and media start hitting the threat a little harder as this could be a downright dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 People might not be paying attention now because of the Easter weekend but might come Monday. The possibility of historic flooding over a large area and a potential historic tornado outbreak will really be a double whammy if they occur this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 new flash flood warnings out from SE IL all the way into SW OH along the OH river,,training heavy rain worst case today for the OH river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Is that yours? Good grief. yes, that's my call. Its hard to pinpoint where the training will be exactly, but usually where the emination point is, a V-shape swath fans out with the flow northeast, so I'm basing it roughly the Ozarks region as the emination point. Initially a northeast fanning, that transitions as the flow backs around 48 hours, and re-development more north/ne to s/sw. People might not be paying attention now because of the Easter weekend but might come Monday. The possibility of historic flooding over a large area and a potential historic tornado outbreak will really be a double whammy if they occur this coming week. I agree. A one two punch. The bootheel region and western KY, srn Ill, IND w. TN look to take a tremendous punch, when all is said and done. http://www.shelbweather.blogspot.com forgot to mention the SREF is a little more south . Once the 850 low strengthens is when the whole event finally culminates, by then a lot of rain will have fallen, and the severe begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 yes, that's my call. Its hard to pinpoint where the training will be exactly, but usually where the emination point is, a V-shape swath fans out with the flow northeast, so I'm basing it roughly the Ozarks region as the emination point. Initially a northeast fanning, that transitions as the flow backs around 48 hours, and re-development more north/ne to s/sw. I agree. A one two punch. The bootheel region and western KY, srn Ill, IND w. TN look to take a tremendous punch, when all is said and done. http://www.shelbweather.blogspot.com forgot to mention the SREF is a little more south . Once the 850 low strengthens is when the whole event finally culminates, by then a lot of rain will have fallen, and the severe begins. Is that your blog listed above? The link doesn't work whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Is that your blog listed above? The link doesn't work whatever it is. This works - http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 wow just wow looking at the short term another wave developing over MO will move into KY later this evening its possible many counties will be under flash flooding for for several days straight already have some issues this looks like Nashville from last year only lasting longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Looks per radar like we have two MCS's training up the Ohio River Valley and a potential third now forming in sw MO which will trend in the same general direction. Not good in either the short or long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Record breaking flooding now forecast the MS river Memphis wil have 3rd highest crest on record highest since 1937 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 109 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FOLLOWUP FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST RIVER INFORMATION. TNC045-095-MOC155-241809- /O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /TPTT1.3.ER.110420T0048Z.110505T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 109 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT TIPTONVILLE * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. * AT 12 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...39.7 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET. * THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 48.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MAY 4. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. AT 47.0 FEET, PORTIONS OF THE TIPTONVILLE LEVEE EXTENSION ARE OVER TOPPED AT THIS LEVEL. EVACUATIONS IN THE LOW AREAS OF TIPTONVILLE ARE NECESSARY. ARC093-TNC045-095-097-MOC155-241808- /O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CRTM7.3.ER.110415T2100Z.110506T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 109 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CARUTHERSVILLE * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. * AT 12 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...36.8 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. * THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY APRIL 15 AND WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 45.5 FEET BY FRIDAY MAY 6. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. AT 45.0 FEET, THE FRONTLINE LEVEE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UP AND DOWN FROM CHIC IN DYER COUNTY COULD BE TOPPED. ALL AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED BY THE FRONTLINE LEVEE COULD FLOOD.. ARC035-077-MSC033-143-TNC157-241808- /O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0038.110428T1814Z-000000T0000Z/ /MEMT1.2.ER.110428T1814Z.110508T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/ 109 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TN HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MEMPHIS * FROM THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. * AT 12 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...30.9 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 34.0 FEET. * FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY APRIL 28 AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 41.5 FEET BY SUNDAY MAY 8. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. AT 40.0 FEET, HOMSTEADS ON ROBINSON CRUSO ISLAND ARE FLOODING. THERE IS EXTENSIVE BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG THE WOLF AND LOOSAHATCHIE RIVER IN WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 was it last year or two years again Louisville had the serious flooding problems? going to post some images shortly of the rise in water from the Ohio river just in the last 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 was it last year or two years again Louisville had the serious flooding problems? going to post some images shortly of the rise in water from the Ohio river just in the last 24hrs. Flash Flooding last year. Nothing serious on the Ohio since 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 was it last year or two years again Louisville had the serious flooding problems? going to post some images shortly of the rise in water from the Ohio river just in the last 24hrs. August 4, 2009...severely impacted the main Louisville library with serious flood damage with that one downtown...but that was flash flooding . 50,000 books destroyed and the library closed through Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 increase in about 24 hours from yesterday to earlier today, can only wonder how high its going to get with the new round of rain just to the west and what the stuff in MO does later tonight. Taken from the Galt Hotel in downtown Louisville where were staying. yesterday today about an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 August 6, 2009...severely impacted the main Louisville library with serious flood damage with that one downtown...but that was flash flooding I guess it was 09, how time flies. It was a heavy rain event, one of those 4 inch an hour rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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