janetjanet998 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 models very wet... sometimes the flood stuff gets buried in severe superthreads but this event deserves a thread of its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Absolutely astonishing! I'll be going down to Clifty Falls State Park near Madison IN the first few days of May. Falls should be roaring. As it is their website says the northern Canyon road entrance to the park is closed through tomorrow at least because of downed trees from the April 19th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 most of the rivers in the OV area are already in some flooding stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 the bad thing is many rivers are already in flood and the ground wet gfs also very wet after 5 days too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 There is nothing worse than flooding. Just terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 the upper MS river is in major flood, the Mo river is also high(but not in flood yet)..the OH river is in flood, moderate in places and the 12z NAM dumps loads of rain over a wide area of the OH watershed, heck all of it 2-3+ inches over S IND, all of KY, OH, WV and western PA i think major flooding likley on the OH and MS rivers.. maybe close to record flooding before all is said and done from Cario IL into the mid south along the mississippi river(OH valley was low during the 1993 event which saved this area) memphis? NAM 60 HR precip valid at 72 HR...more in the 12 HR after this too(espicially over central KY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 This looks very serious. IND already saying it could be the worst in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 ominous for East Fork White River at Seymour THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST FORK WHITE RIVER AT SEYMOUR.* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.1 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING. * WITH WATER LEVELS NEAR 19.0 FEET...A MAJOR FLOOD IS IN PROGRESS. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR ROCKFORD...NEAR BROWNSTOWN AND AT SHIELDS TOWN. SHIELDS TOWN IS LOCATED ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF SEYMOUR AND ACCORDING TO LOCAL RESIDENTS A COLLECTION OF RIVER CABINS. AT THIS LEVEL RESIDENTS GENERALLY LEAVE. RIVER OBSERVER'S HOUSE BECOMES AN ISLAND. MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED. 70% OF THE FLOOD PLAIN IN JACKSON COUNTY IS UNDERWATER. AN AGRICULTURAL DISASTER DURING THE GROWING SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 staying at a hotel right on the river in Louisville, some flooding could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 some flooding could be fun. With the right gear. Like a life vest and a large inflatable raft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 12z GFS at 60 hr increments out to 360 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 ominous for East Fork White River at Seymour THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST FORK WHITE RIVER AT SEYMOUR.* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.1 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING. * WITH WATER LEVELS NEAR 19.0 FEET...A MAJOR FLOOD IS IN PROGRESS. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR ROCKFORD...NEAR BROWNSTOWN AND AT SHIELDS TOWN. SHIELDS TOWN IS LOCATED ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF SEYMOUR AND ACCORDING TO LOCAL RESIDENTS A COLLECTION OF RIVER CABINS. AT THIS LEVEL RESIDENTS GENERALLY LEAVE. RIVER OBSERVER'S HOUSE BECOMES AN ISLAND. MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED. 70% OF THE FLOOD PLAIN IN JACKSON COUNTY IS UNDERWATER. AN AGRICULTURAL DISASTER DURING THE GROWING SEASON. I indeed live here in Seymour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I've been posting about the probability of having worse flooding than '08 on my FB Group page since the late fall. Rock Island is a mere 2' below '93 record level of 22.63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Through Mon morning on the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Through Mon morning on the 00z NAM Yeah and the worst comes after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Just got into Louisville for the weekend and already could see some serious flooding coming over the bridge into the city, will try to get pictures tomorrow but saw one area where people would normally board these large boats is completely under water and covering parts of a some trees on the walkway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 GRR's Long term THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION IN THIS FORECASTERS MIND IT WILL RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY ACTUALLY. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ALREADY...I HAVE TO BELIEVE SOME RIVER POINTS WILL GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. MANY FARM FIELDS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY FLOODED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ONCE THE WARM FRONT GETS NORTH OF THE GRR CWA. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS WITH EACH OTHER AND THE MODELS WITH THEMSELVES OVER TIME (PAST 4 DAYS) MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT HAPPENING IS HIGH. I INCREASED THE POP TO LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REALLY THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO LESS THAN LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EITHER. I DID NOT GO LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH DUE TO NEAR BY OFFICES POPS BEING ON THE LOW SIDE. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME... WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT WILL BE HEAVY. AS I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...OUR POWERHOUSE EAST ASIAN JET CORE IS STILL FORECAST TO COME ON SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THAT STARTS THE PROCESS BOTH DIGGING AN DEEP THROUGH OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT THE SAME TIME BUILDING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. OUR PROBLEM THROUGH IS THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. WHICH MEANS THE MAIN AIR STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN ESSENCE AIMED AT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THREE DAYS. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES OR 300 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 1000 TO 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MOST OF THIS TIME HEAVY RAINFALL IS NEARLY ASSURED WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW. JET ENTRANCE REGION LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE... CAUSES A WAVE ON THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR INTESTATE 80 MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THIS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER TIME IN THE MODELS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT MUCH OF A THREAT MONDAY THROUGH AS THE BEST INSTABILITY STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN YET. TUESDAY THE LEAD WAVE COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH AND THAT PUSHES THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS COME THROUGH... BY LATE MORNING... A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AIMED AT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... JUST IN TIME FOR UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A NEARBY BY COLD FRONT TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE A REAL THREAT TUESDAY GIVEN THE STRAIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER JET WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY IN PLACE.. TRAIN ECHOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE QUICK TO COME THROUGH SINCE THE UPPER JET PARALLEL THE FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH BRINGING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. WHICH OF COURSE FARTHER INCREASES THE FLOOD THREAT. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER MICHIGAN. THIS COULD MEAN MORE RAINFALL. THIS WOULD BE DAY FOUR OF THIS EVENT. IT WOULD BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT TO SAY THE FLOOD THREAT IS REAL. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 it has started and wont stop for days 12 nam= continues almost non stop train of rain/storms waving back and forth over IL/MO/IND and KY the next 84 hours ..again this is falling on saturated ground and high river levels NAM first 24 hour precip and then the 60 after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Just an incredible amount of water. No end in sight for the most part. I seriously wonder what awaits after this pattern changes. Do we snap into some serious Summer heat or continue the normal transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 some of thre next 24 hour rain forecast are now getting into the river forecast: (much more after that) this is going to be a long thread here are some points to keep track of over the next few days..these are the main branches alot of major flooding on the smaller branches too Mississippi River Quincy now 23.5 which would be the 9th highest on record St Louis 32.7 47th highest on record Cape Girardeau 36.0 27th highest on record Memphis 33.0 27th highest on record OH river Paducah 44.7 47th highest Cario IL 52.7 17th highest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Just an incredible amount of water. No end in sight for the most part. I seriously wonder what awaits after this pattern changes. Do we snap into some serious Summer heat or continue the normal transition? The serious flooding will probably prevent serious summer heat in the midwest. While this is too much rain for those of us in the midwest, it is much needed rain for places like TX, AR, and OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 12z Euro dumps 7" of rain here in the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Wow - on a conference call with PAH and they are talking about some of the biggest crests in 30 years along the Ohio and perhaps MS - could beat the 97 flood in some areas. They are using some strong language. This looks devastating if these rain forecasts pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 From PAH From the KFVS blog To put it in context, I was on a conference call with the National Weather Service in Paducah today and the service hydrologist said that if the expected rain does happen the flooding would exceed the following levels: It would exceed the 1995 flood in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. It would exceed the 1997 flood in Cairo, Illinois. It would exceed the 1997 flood in Paducah, Kentucky. Something interesting to note. The hydrologist said this will be the first time in over 20 years that both the Ohio River and the Mississippi River will be flooding at this levels at the same time. I was on that conference call too and I found that very interesting. She seemed very worried and of course starting off the call with saying that this could be worse than the '97 flood was a way to hit it home. Very worried about the Ohio River here. OHRFC has White River at Petersburg, and Hazelton hitting major stage by Monday. Receiving reports already of almost an inch of rain in Knox County, IN (near Vincennes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 some pictures I took earlier of the Ohio River in Louisville near our hotel, should look a bit more interesting by sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 When I heard the NWS start a conversation off by saying "I don't want to scare anyone - but" Those are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I have never heard Mary that concerned. It certainly raises some eyebrows. Hate this for area residents - flooding is nothing but a lot of drama. Let's hope the worst case scenario doesn't verify. These heavy rain events have been happening more and more the last six years. Rick Shanklin from KPAH has been doing some research on the subject. Defin a concern. I agree. NWS Indy has already stated this will be devastating for agricultural areas in south-central Indiana. Working for the state, we have a lot of people who are starting to stress out. We just don't need another June 2008 here. If you hear anything about southern portions of Indiana let me know. We try to reach out to every county but sometimes the state line blends into other states if you know what I mean. Some counties just don't like to share information even if it means we can give them some help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.