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The one and only 18z GFS show


earthlight

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I think it's safe to say that while the cold pattern may have been delayed about 1-2 wks from when the GFS first showed it, it seems like it has not been denied and some semblance of a cold or cold/stormy pattern for AT LEAST the first 2 wks of dec. will occur. This is huge for this winter because if we all remember the awful La nina winters of the past 10-15 yrs (specifically 01-02) cold shots were advertised weeks out that never came to fruition. We shall see what implications this has on our winter. I'm definitely liking what I'm seeing. Early december to me is kind of like a wild card because technically average highs around here are still in the mid and upper 40's but with the right pattern it can definitely get quite wintry in our area.

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The 18z GFS looks like it's a little faster with the clipper than the 12z GFS, putting light precipitation over WV on Sunday morning before the clipper dissipates, while the 12z GFS keeps any precipitation trapped in the Midwest/Great Lakes. The GFS doesn't seem to be consistent yet with the smaller details in this time frame, but it looks like we're starting to run out of time for any big trends that could put the storm in a favorable spot again.

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It will be interesting to see what the Euro does with that 10+ day storm. Euro was hinting at something today. Glad to see the GFS isn't completely inactive.

The euro day 10 look is not a good one as there is too much deep southerly flow out ahead of the next trough. The good news is the day 10 euro has been awful lately so it's not likely to be right.

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It will be interesting to see what the Euro does with that 10+ day storm. Euro was hinting at something today. Glad to see the GFS isn't completely inactive.

the 10 day storm is always interesting until you get to day 5.   Give it a rest with the 10 day crap

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The euro day 10 look is not a good one as there is too much deep southerly flow out ahead of the next trough. The good news is the day 10 euro has been awful lately so it's not likely to be right.

not that it matters since 0z will have a deeper solution, but there is a pretty solid high over the great lakes 1032, only issue is i don't see a 50/50 low to lock it in.

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The latest gfs shows at least one big threat in the long range, but other than that it's rather dry and cold, rather some strong cold too relative to normal. That's the worse kind of winter weather to have, cold and dry. I'd rather it be nice and warm if we won't have any snow.

It is but it is still early yet in the season to worry about it.

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