The one and only 18z GFS show

[earthlight]

Let's see what we can take out of the trends on this run. Doesn't mean much at all, considering it's an off hour run in the medium to long range we are watching, but it's the first potential threat of the winter so many eyes are peeled. Key features to watch include the shortwave ejecting into the northern plains (some of the SREF members have this feature very robust, similar to yesterdays 12z ECMWF), the big vortex over the northeast and associated confluence, and the positioning of the shortwave off California by day 5-6 and the associated energy's path towards the mean flow in the United States.

[ag3]

You started yesterdays euro thread.

I have faith in you.

[jrodd321]

Still so much time left with this system. 00z tonight will be interesting

[supermeh]

Low retrograding in Maine is further south at 54

[tombo82685]

Low retrograding in Maine is further south at 54

it corrects itself in the later images, im at hr 72 and its basically in the same position as 12z. The low pressure coming out of the rockies looks a little more potent this run than 12z, also a little further south.

[tombo82685]

the dec 5th system comes alittle further nw, but gets shredded by the mtns

[tombo82685]

hr 108 much weaker with the storm retrgrading in towards maine, also further ne

[LocoAko]

Let's see what we can take out of the trends on this run. Doesn't mean much at all, considering it's an off hour run in the medium to long range we are watching, but it's the first potential threat of the winter so many eyes are peeled. Key features to watch include the shortwave ejecting into the northern plains (some of the SREF members have this feature very robust, similar to yesterdays 12z ECMWF), the big vortex over the northeast and associated confluence, and the positioning of the shortwave off California by day 5-6 and the associated energy's path towards the mean flow in the United States.

There have been many posts over the last few months showing that off-hour runs are no longer any more incorrect than 00Z and 12Z runs.

See:

[MJO812]

Definitely weaker now.

Now we just need the block to be weaker and the shortwave to be more potent.

[Alpha5]

No change

[isnice]

Still so much time left with this system. 00z tonight will be interesting

Methinks not. Things will get interesting..but not quite yet. It'll boil down to the >120 hour period when the models really get a grasp of the blocking condition and this clipper system is actually on the continent.

[tombo82685]

i dont think its the surface representation thats doing it, look at h5, that low is much stronger, and that appears to be squashing everything

[earthlight]

Although the surface solution is mundane, this run phases in that polar shortwave again. I like what I see.

[gkrangers]

Let's start throwing out the cliches guys. We can will this!

[Alpha5]

i dont think its the surface representation thats doing it, look at h5, that low is much stronger, and that appears to be squashing everything

The NE is stuck under a strong ULL pinned down by a strong east based NAO block...not conducive of a snowstorm

[tombo82685]

sw storm gets carved up like a turkey

[tombo82685]

The NE is stuck under a strong ULL pinned down by a strong east based NAO block...not conducive of a snowstorm

you need that to weaken or move out quicker. You can see it on the heights, everything is squashed down this run do to the stronger h 5 low.

[tombo82685]

that h5 low is just like in summer time with a dominating high in the se, you will get the ring of fire where the tstorms develop. Applies the same to this, the storms are going to travel around that feature.

[Kaner587]

as earthlight says I definitely like the PJ phasing with our s/w on this run. GFS will overdo the confluence and therefore this solution will obviously appear way south and east. At least we have something going here...we'll see what happens over the next couple days

[Alpha5]

you need that to weaken or move out quicker. You can see it on the heights, everything is squashed down this run do to the stronger h 5 low.

Upon further review the 18z does look better...the sw seems to be a bit slower so it doesnt get tangled up in the ULL over the NE

But the NAO still refuses to budge so as long as we have the ULL over NY/NNE were not getting anything

[stormtracker]

Crush city. Ugly.

Let's hope the GFS is way too strong with ULL

[CarolineWx]

that s/w keeps getting stronger on the GFS last few runs, if the block in the northeast can go away we be looking at a major storm mid next week.

[isnice]

Ugly at 500mb...no way can anything form if that 50/50 is that far south.

[earthlight]

that s/w keeps getting stronger on the GFS last few runs, if the block in the northeast can go away we be looking at a major storm mid next week.

Agree...it's not far off but we are running out of time for significant/major changes. The encouraging thing is how much stronger the shortwave is here, and the polar shortwave getting involved again. Also the west coast ridge is going bonkers this run.

[tombo82685]

Upon further review the 18z does look better...the sw seems to be a bit slower so it doesnt get tangled up in the ULL over the NE But the NAO still refuses to budge so as long as we have the ULL over NY/NNE were not getting anything

in reading dt's post you want that sw to be faster so it can link up with the energy dropping down out of the northern plains.

[tombo82685]

lol hr 186 has hurricane like pressure hitting new foundland

[MJO812]

Swing and a miss on the GFS for the second storm. Next week gets really cold on this run.

[isnice]

If the GFS ends up verifying what it's been showing the past few days, I will only listen to that model for this entire winter- and that's saying a lot.

[tombo82685]

it never fails, anthony's 288 to 312hr blizzard....

[Alpha5]

Hr 276