Ivanhater Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al912011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201104201829 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011 AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 C'mon S. Florida; one time! Anything in April is exciting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 12z Euro valid for Friday Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I do not expect this to be a Ana 2003 reduex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 259 WHXX01 KWBC 201901 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1901 UTC WED APR 20 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110420 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110420 1800 110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 23.2N 60.8W 23.7N 62.5W 24.1N 64.0W 24.1N 64.6W BAMD 23.2N 60.8W 24.8N 57.4W 27.5N 55.8W 30.5N 55.2W BAMM 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 61.1W 25.6N 61.6W 26.9N 61.7W LBAR 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 60.6W 25.3N 60.7W 26.7N 60.5W SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110422 1800 110423 1800 110424 1800 110425 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 23.6N 65.3W 21.8N 68.2W 21.3N 73.0W 21.9N 77.7W BAMD 33.5N 53.2W 41.4N 38.1W 50.1N 21.3W 55.1N 12.1W BAMM 27.2N 61.8W 24.8N 63.6W 23.3N 66.8W 23.3N 69.4W LBAR 28.1N 59.9W 29.9N 56.4W 30.1N 51.8W 30.1N 50.2W SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.6W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM $$ NNNN Still waiting for the HWRF run that shows a major menacing South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 does this count as one of the 28 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 does this count as one of the 28 storms? Who, pray tell, is predicting 28 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Who, pray tell, is predicting 28 storms? I think he's asking if it counts if the storm gets a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 does this count as one of the 28 storms? http://28storms.com/name/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 This is like the first GFS run that shows 2" of snow for Philly on October 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Lemonized 000 ABNT20 KNHC 201935 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY... OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 This is like the first GFS run that shows 2" of snow for Philly on October 3rd Yes, you can also be sure the NAM will be mentioned in this thread before the day is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 the best thing is it wont just beebop out to sea like the 2010 season. this season will be much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 the best thing is it wont just beebop out to sea like the 2010 season. this season will be much more interesting. Have you looped the satellite on it? It is pretty disorganized, and has fairly warm cloud tops. That, and April tracks of weak barely/non tropical systems, is that really correlative to JAS storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Not very encouraging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Not very encouraging... Might not be a bad idea to take a look at hr 24-48 before skipping ahead to the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert. Amen to that. Last time I got a Tropical Storm (Bonnie), I didn't even know about till it had gone past since I didn't have internet. I just thought it was a windy day. So weak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 This pretty much tells the story why Invest 91L won't develop after the upper low passes by... So does this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C. Or that it has a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Or that it has a cold front ...and a baroclinc leaf :devilsmiley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Laugh at it all you want... but 91L wants some attention. Seems like the ULL just to the west is providing some temporary relief from the shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Laugh at it all you want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if I was a mariner, but this is not even close to being tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if I was a mariner, but this is not even close to being tropical. It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects don't look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Avila doesn't seem to be too worried about a need to classify this disturbance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Avila doesn't seem to be too worried about a need to classify this disturbance... Whew...I can get on with my day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.