am19psu Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The European model is still beating the GFS at Days 5-6 and they're even at Day 8, but in the out periods, the GFS has taken a fairly commanding lead over the last month. That has to make the folks at NCEP pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Euro's overamplication bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Cool. The Euro worship and the "GooFuS" hate gets a little old on these forums sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I think the GFS gets beat on a little too much sometimes just because it typically can't quite hold up to the Euro. But it's a pretty good model all things considered. Now the NAM on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 The European model is still beating the GFS at Days 5-6 and they're even at Day 8, but in the out periods, the GFS has taken a fairly commanding lead over the last month. That has to make the folks at NCEP pretty happy. I've noticed the GFS has been a little closer to reality than Euro for a while , esp. when it counts, ie, a major system, or active period. This started around shortly after Christmas or so. Many times the ECMWF would spend 2 or 3 days and finally come around to a more GFS like solution, rather than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 I've noticed the GFS has been a little closer to reality than Euro for a while , esp. when it counts, ie, a major system, or active period. This started around shortly after Christmas or so. Many times the ECMWF would spend 2 or 3 days and finally come around to a more GFS like solution, rather than the other way around. I've noticed it anecdotally, as well, even going back to hurricane season. Kinda surprising given their track records prior to July 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 That update must have really improved the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Hard to get excited over a regional 10 day verification score that averages 0.5 (and doesn't get above the "useful" threshold of 0.6 very often). The variability is pretty high and I can't believe the difference between the two models is statistically significant (the t-test that is run on the time series and included on the die off curves isn't the best method to use because of the temporally correlated errors, but it does confirm my suspicion that this can't be considered significant by any stretch). I do appreciate the comments about the anecdotal evidence of GFS improvements seen since last summer's upgrade. BTW, there is a minor upgrade to the GFS/GDAS package next month (most of it is data assimilation related, but there are a few minor fixes that are going to be put into the forecast model to attempt to correct some specific deficiencies that were introduced with last summer's upgrade). There isn't a "major" upgrade scheduled until sometime in early 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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