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Next severe weather event April 26-29


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Yeah I know for a fact I've never read a discussion so ominous from FFC. Their discussions the last few days on this severe weather have been excellent. They have been on top of it now for 3 or 4 days so kudos to them.

Not sure what to expect though personally. SPCs hesitancy to extend the moderate risk any further east and gsp not sounding too worried about it makes me worried things will weaken a good bit. However, western/northwest ga is likely a different story. I wish we could get some discrete storms before the main event and there is a chance of it over the western half, I'm sure it's just going to be just another squall line by the time it gets here. Most of the time that is the case anyway.

Was hoping for some storms today but it looks like north Ga is going to be totally screwed due to the remains of the convective complex over al. Satellite shows very little cumulus so not looking for much today over north ga, which sucks. I'm not hoping for damage or anything but the constant barrage of huge storms over the midwest has me somewhat jealous. Not to mention the insane rainfall amounts, some areas have above 15 inches of rain in the last few days. An absolutely HUGE area of that has gotten 6 or more inches of rain the last few days too. And it's far from over there too. One has to feel for those folks out there, they sure have caught hell this spring.

To be honest the GSP's lack of concern has me very concerned. Like FFC they tend to underplay severe weather events. I will wait and see what tonights forecast discussion brings, but I am not holding my breath. gun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gif

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Getting some nasty storms firing across southeastern NC.

Where is all the rain that was supposed to be over Western NC this afternoon/evening? I'm under a flash flood watch for tonight, yet there is hardly any development of storms or showers at all right now. Are we sure that rain is coming today? Were all these storms along the coast forecasted for today or have they been a surprise?

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Where is all the rain that was supposed to be over Western NC this afternoon/evening? I'm under a flash flood watch for tonight, yet there is hardly any development of storms or showers at all right now. Are we sure that rain is coming today? Were all these storms along the coast forecasted for today or have they been a surprise?

According to the NWS Discussion, storms are supposed to start later this evening and into tonight. The RUC shows a lot of upslope rain tonight. The current thinking is storms will develop later this afternoon and overnight. Overnight, a line of storms is expected to develop and move over the same areas. Some areas could easily pick up 2-4 inches of rain where the storms train over and over. Not sure where this is going to happen, but these lucky areas could pick up a ton of rain tonight. It will interesting to see what happens as the evening continues. This is expected to occur in the Flood Watch area.

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Where is all the rain that was supposed to be over Western NC this afternoon/evening? I'm under a flash flood watch for tonight, yet there is hardly any development of storms or showers at all right now. Are we sure that rain is coming today? Were all these storms along the coast forecasted for today or have they been a surprise?

It was to be expected given the favorable airmass in place with aid from a little disturbance nearby allowing convection to develop.

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FFC afternoon AFD

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED MAINLY

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

PRIMARY CONCERN IS INTENSITY AND TIMING FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.

INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE DISCUSSED IN

GREAT DETAIL ...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT THERE ARE ALL THERE AND IN

ABUNDANCE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE IN SPITE

OF TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. A LACK OF A SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM SUCH AS

A FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARY MAY BE TO BLAME ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE

WAS INCREASING OVER NE ALABAMA AND FAR NW GA. NEAR TERM POPS MAY

BE TOO HIGH IF STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...FOR NOW HAVE FAITH THAT A

FEW STORMS WILL FIRE. IF IT HASNT BY 7PM...PROBABLY NEED TO LOWER

POPS. SIMILARLY...STORMS OVER THE MID SOUTH ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE /QLCS/ AND

PUSH EAST INTO AL OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE GONE AT OR

BELOW GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...BUT THESE

MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED FURTHER DOWN BASED ON TRENDS EVOLUTION OF

QLCS TO THE WEST.

PRIMARY CONCERN IS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND ESP WED NIGHT. MOST

LIKELY TIME WILL BE BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL

REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST.

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AS WELL...

0-1KM BULK SHEAR IS 40-50KTS PEAKING AROUND 03Z OVER NORTH GA. AS

DISCUSSED EARLIER...COMPOSITE INDICATES SUCH AS SIG TOR PARAMETER

OR EHI ARE AT EXTREME LEVELS...NEAR THE HIGHEST I HAVE PERSONALLY

SEEN ON MODEL PROGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE

INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STP...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE IN LINE SO

FAR TODAY.

STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WED AND

EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE AREA TO BE HIGH AND DRY BY THURSDAY

AFTERNOON. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS GOOD...EXCEPT MIN TEMPS TOO COLD...

ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS LIKE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WED

NIGHT ALSO TOO COLD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DRY

BEHIND COLD FRONT.

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That seems like that is when they are the most dangerous in NC. I think we still lead the nation in the number of deaths from overnight tornados.

You are 100% correct on that one. We do lead the nation in that. Not something to be proud of though. I am so very concerned about how much the GSP is underplaying this event.

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You are 100% correct on that one. We do lead the nation in that. Not something to be proud of though. I am so very concerned about how much the GSP is underplaying this event.

Yes but in general storms are more severe during the daytime at max heating. It just means NC will have one less element in the mix to give extreme tornadoes.

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According to the NWS Discussion, storms are supposed to start later this evening and into tonight. The RUC shows a lot of upslope rain tonight. The current thinking is storms will develop later this afternoon and overnight. Overnight, a line of storms is expected to develop and move over the same areas. Some areas could easily pick up 2-4 inches of rain where the storms train over and over. Not sure where this is going to happen, but these lucky areas could pick up a ton of rain tonight. It will interesting to see what happens as the evening continues. This is expected to occur in the Flood Watch area.

The only storm on radar right now in the NC foothills is just to my NW. Just missed me! :thumbsdown: I've heard a couple rumbles of thunder but no rain.

I hope those storms developing tonight will train over me too. I could use the rain.

Those storms along the coast have been quite healthy since noon. Lots of needed rainfall falling in the eastern Carolinas.

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Yes but in general storms are more severe during the daytime at max heating. It just means NC will have one less element in the mix to give extreme tornadoes.

Well if that's the case then the FFC is overplaying it a bit. As storms are looking to strike after the max daytime heating.

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I'm bringing up the Memphis radar too. It'll take 20 minutes of so (maybe a little longer) to get all the images so it will loop. One disadvantage of using FlAnis to loop with. The place where the radar image should be will be blank until all images are loaded. Columbus is currently working, just not much on it yet.

Columbus AFB MS - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Working

Little Rock - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php (keep checking)

Memphis - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_3.php (keep checking)

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