mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 PDS watch out for NE Texas SW Arkansas, and NW Louisiana. The watch probs are sick. http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0215.html P(>EF2): 90% --- I think that's the highest I've seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Getting some nasty storms firing across southeastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Getting some nasty storms firing across southeastern NC. That cell just south of CAE will get Richland Co soon....soooooo close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Line just starting to form in Arkansas http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_arkansas_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yeah I know for a fact I've never read a discussion so ominous from FFC. Their discussions the last few days on this severe weather have been excellent. They have been on top of it now for 3 or 4 days so kudos to them. Not sure what to expect though personally. SPCs hesitancy to extend the moderate risk any further east and gsp not sounding too worried about it makes me worried things will weaken a good bit. However, western/northwest ga is likely a different story. I wish we could get some discrete storms before the main event and there is a chance of it over the western half, I'm sure it's just going to be just another squall line by the time it gets here. Most of the time that is the case anyway. Was hoping for some storms today but it looks like north Ga is going to be totally screwed due to the remains of the convective complex over al. Satellite shows very little cumulus so not looking for much today over north ga, which sucks. I'm not hoping for damage or anything but the constant barrage of huge storms over the midwest has me somewhat jealous. Not to mention the insane rainfall amounts, some areas have above 15 inches of rain in the last few days. An absolutely HUGE area of that has gotten 6 or more inches of rain the last few days too. And it's far from over there too. One has to feel for those folks out there, they sure have caught hell this spring. To be honest the GSP's lack of concern has me very concerned. Like FFC they tend to underplay severe weather events. I will wait and see what tonights forecast discussion brings, but I am not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 storm southwest of Dallas looks VERY ominous. already SVR warned showing some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Just looking at the radar now over the south, you wouldn't think anything was going to happen. Very calm and quiet... the calm before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Poor is in for storms or not for storms? Poor as in nocturnal to early morning meaning less intense storms and no chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 storm southwest of Dallas looks VERY ominous. already SVR warned showing some rotation. That one is growing larger by the minute. Here's an up close view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Poor as in nocturnal to early morning meaning less intense storms and no chasing. That seems like that is when they are the most dangerous in NC. I think we still lead the nation in the number of deaths from overnight tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Getting some nasty storms firing across southeastern NC. Where is all the rain that was supposed to be over Western NC this afternoon/evening? I'm under a flash flood watch for tonight, yet there is hardly any development of storms or showers at all right now. Are we sure that rain is coming today? Were all these storms along the coast forecasted for today or have they been a surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Look at the severe weather parameters in Texas, I've never seen this many values this high before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Look at the severe weather parameters in Texas, I've never seen this many values this high before. Sick, just plain sick...I've never seen the like. Amazing numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Where is all the rain that was supposed to be over Western NC this afternoon/evening? I'm under a flash flood watch for tonight, yet there is hardly any development of storms or showers at all right now. Are we sure that rain is coming today? Were all these storms along the coast forecasted for today or have they been a surprise? According to the NWS Discussion, storms are supposed to start later this evening and into tonight. The RUC shows a lot of upslope rain tonight. The current thinking is storms will develop later this afternoon and overnight. Overnight, a line of storms is expected to develop and move over the same areas. Some areas could easily pick up 2-4 inches of rain where the storms train over and over. Not sure where this is going to happen, but these lucky areas could pick up a ton of rain tonight. It will interesting to see what happens as the evening continues. This is expected to occur in the Flood Watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Nice well defined hook echo on the storm south of Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looks like things are firing up over in TX/AR/W TN. Anybody thing we are gonna get anything today in Georgia? SPC has me under a slight risk but I'm having trouble believing that. Nothing firing yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Heavy downpour at the moment with pea sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Where is all the rain that was supposed to be over Western NC this afternoon/evening? I'm under a flash flood watch for tonight, yet there is hardly any development of storms or showers at all right now. Are we sure that rain is coming today? Were all these storms along the coast forecasted for today or have they been a surprise? It was to be expected given the favorable airmass in place with aid from a little disturbance nearby allowing convection to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 FFC afternoon AFD ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PRIMARY CONCERN IS INTENSITY AND TIMING FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE DISCUSSED IN GREAT DETAIL ...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT THERE ARE ALL THERE AND IN ABUNDANCE. IN THE NEAR TERM...CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE IN SPITE OF TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. A LACK OF A SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARY MAY BE TO BLAME ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING OVER NE ALABAMA AND FAR NW GA. NEAR TERM POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH IF STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...FOR NOW HAVE FAITH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FIRE. IF IT HASNT BY 7PM...PROBABLY NEED TO LOWER POPS. SIMILARLY...STORMS OVER THE MID SOUTH ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP. MODELS SHOW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE /QLCS/ AND PUSH EAST INTO AL OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED FURTHER DOWN BASED ON TRENDS EVOLUTION OF QLCS TO THE WEST. PRIMARY CONCERN IS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND ESP WED NIGHT. MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AS WELL... 0-1KM BULK SHEAR IS 40-50KTS PEAKING AROUND 03Z OVER NORTH GA. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...COMPOSITE INDICATES SUCH AS SIG TOR PARAMETER OR EHI ARE AT EXTREME LEVELS...NEAR THE HIGHEST I HAVE PERSONALLY SEEN ON MODEL PROGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STP...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE IN LINE SO FAR TODAY. STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE AREA TO BE HIGH AND DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS GOOD...EXCEPT MIN TEMPS TOO COLD... ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS LIKE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT ALSO TOO COLD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DRY BEHIND COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 That seems like that is when they are the most dangerous in NC. I think we still lead the nation in the number of deaths from overnight tornados. You are 100% correct on that one. We do lead the nation in that. Not something to be proud of though. I am so very concerned about how much the GSP is underplaying this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 You are 100% correct on that one. We do lead the nation in that. Not something to be proud of though. I am so very concerned about how much the GSP is underplaying this event. Yes but in general storms are more severe during the daytime at max heating. It just means NC will have one less element in the mix to give extreme tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 FFC afternoon AFD ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING... Wow. Scary stuff from FFC. This thread is gonna be crazy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 According to the NWS Discussion, storms are supposed to start later this evening and into tonight. The RUC shows a lot of upslope rain tonight. The current thinking is storms will develop later this afternoon and overnight. Overnight, a line of storms is expected to develop and move over the same areas. Some areas could easily pick up 2-4 inches of rain where the storms train over and over. Not sure where this is going to happen, but these lucky areas could pick up a ton of rain tonight. It will interesting to see what happens as the evening continues. This is expected to occur in the Flood Watch area. The only storm on radar right now in the NC foothills is just to my NW. Just missed me! I've heard a couple rumbles of thunder but no rain. I hope those storms developing tonight will train over me too. I could use the rain. Those storms along the coast have been quite healthy since noon. Lots of needed rainfall falling in the eastern Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looking at the Little Rock radar, one storm hit 70 dBZ, rotation in three, tops to 47K ft. I just got that radar going so it's not displaying images yet http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php Here's an image from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 So, FFC says there will be widespread severe storms and tornadoes tomorrow and SPC has us only a Slight Risk, yet areas all the way from Alabama to Western PA are under a MDT risk. Can someone explain that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yes but in general storms are more severe during the daytime at max heating. It just means NC will have one less element in the mix to give extreme tornadoes. Tell that to people in Vilonia, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yes but in general storms are more severe during the daytime at max heating. It just means NC will have one less element in the mix to give extreme tornadoes. Well if that's the case then the FFC is overplaying it a bit. As storms are looking to strike after the max daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Tell that to people in Vilonia, AR. He said in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm bringing up the Memphis radar too. It'll take 20 minutes of so (maybe a little longer) to get all the images so it will loop. One disadvantage of using FlAnis to loop with. The place where the radar image should be will be blank until all images are loaded. Columbus is currently working, just not much on it yet. Columbus AFB MS - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Working Little Rock - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php (keep checking) Memphis - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_3.php (keep checking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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