DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 chasertv typically craps out less than severestudios I find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It wouldn't surprise me if North MS, North AL, and TN were put under a high risk. Of course where my family lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I couldn't tell you how many times I have heard people say their modular home is just as safe as a house T Sorry about the off topic comment, but actually many Modulars today are built quite well. Depends on what you are willing to pay. This is a modular home that I have in Virginia which is built to much higher standards than what is required in the county it is built. 2x6 exterior walls, roof trusses etc. Only 2x4's are required for stick built for the exterior walls and roof joists in this area. Regardless, I would still feel safer in the basement if a tornado actually approached while I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Not to sound stupid, but is a double wide safer than a single wide mobile home? Not a dumb question at all...some folks might assume the bulk means greater protection. Boy. Your thinking that was a stupid question was really..........stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Modulars are different than mobile homes, and in some cases, better constructed than some regular homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Levee protecting Poplar Bluff has been breached... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Definitely looks like it is going to be interesting this afternoon here in the foothills and mountains in NC. I am not so worried about the severe weather threat; however, the heavy rain threat is very real. According to the National Weather Service in the Flash Flood Watch issued for the mountain/foothill counties of NC, 3-4 inches of rain is possible along the east facing slopes. The NWS is expecting 1-1.5 inches of rain in the watch area. Training storms can bring massive totals of rain, and this could get very interesting north of Interstate 85 this evening. I have no idea where these storms will develop and train; however, hopefully it is over my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm very surprised that nothing has started to develop yet, especially back over Arkansas/MS. The radar is pretty empty right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Dr. Forbes has his TOR:CON at 9/10 for NE Texas and southern Arkansas, as well as 8/10 for N Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SPC has extended the "high risk" area to include almost all of eastern Arkansas, southwest Tennesse and extreme northwest Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm on my phone, so I'm not gomna post the paragraph, but I encourage everyone in AL, TN, and GA to read FFCs update posted about 12:45. Now I'm starting to get nervous.....they mention sig. Tornado parameters of 8-11 even in N Ga on Wed evening. Also, the last line reads something like: "guys, we really need to start getting ready for this.". Don't think I've ever read an ominous couple of lines from FFC like that. Someone post it if you could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Good write from Mr. Snelson from FFC: Tells you how dangerous tomorrow will be. .UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK CURRENT TRENDS AND UPDATE FCST TIMING FOR TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY FOR WED NIGHT. SIG TOR PARAMETER /STP/ VALUES ARE THE HIGHEST I PERSONALLY HAVE EVER SEEN FROM THE GFS OR NAM WITH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PROGGED FOR ERN MS/NRN AL/CENTRAL TN 18 TO 21Z WED. RECALL THAT STP COMBINES MLCAPE..0 TO 1 KM SHEAR AND LCL. VALUES GREATER THAN 1.0 INDICATE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AND VALUES GREATER THAN 3.0 INDICATE TORNADOES LIKELY. THESE ARE OFF THE CHART GUYS. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUES OF STP I HAVE SEEN ARE 14 FOR THE APR 2010 YAZOO CITY OUTBREAK AND 16 FOR THE MAY 10 2010 CENTRAL OK OUTBREAK. WE CAN TAKE SOME COMFORT FOR GA THAT STP IS PROGGED TO DROP SOME BY THE TIME THE STORMS GET TO NW GA AROUND 00Z BUT...UNFORTUNATELY... WERE STILL TALKING ABOUT VALUES OF 8 TO 11 IN NORTH GA AND EVEN 6 TO 10 IN MIDDLE GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE REALLY NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THIS. MORE ON THE REST OF THE FCST AROUND 4PM. SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm on my phone, so I'm not gomna post the paragraph, but I encourage everyone in AL, TN, and GA to read FFCs update posted about 12:45. Now I'm starting to get nervous.....they mention sig. Tornado parameters of 8-11 even in N Ga on Wed evening. Also, the last line reads something like: "guys, we really need to start getting ready for this.". Don't think I've ever read an ominous couple of lines from FFC like that. Someone post it if you could. Posted it above this, and yes very ominous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Wow, sounds like a repeat of the threat NC had on 4/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yeah, this upcoming storm system will be awful for Mississippi and Alabama, weaken and fizzle out over Georgia, and ramp up again in the Carolinas. I guess that's a good thing if you live in Georgia. However, I want to see some awesome storms.....in the daytime. I am so sick of nighttime storms moving through GA and weakening. It really takes all the fun out of everything. Also, I'm sick of night storms. It happened all of the time in the winter, and it's doing it again this Spring. SO ANNOYING! Sorry for my rant. lol, do you still think it fizzles over Georgia? btw Night Storms are amazing, the lightning at night is so beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Thermodynamics and Composite Indices are really impressive over northern Mississippi right now, also through TX and AR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 CAE...still not impressed...lol .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CHANCES DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE CLOUDINESS AND AWAY FROM FOG ATTM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500MB. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TO THE TN VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC LIFT MAXIMIZES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...BECOMES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EDIT: Not sure why my obs say it's raining...currently 85/65 with the sun shining brightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looks like a decent shot at some thunderstorms tomorrow evening for central/eastern North Carolina. I am somewhat doubtful, though, and only went for a 70% POP for tomorrow in our NCSU forecast contest. The models seem to be insistent on weakening the squall line as it moves off to the east. We can just hope that it doesn't weaken too much. If it holds together, the severe weather could be pretty bad Wednesday evening. There's certainly enough moisture around. We also had a brief thundershower pass through Raleigh about an hour ago. There was a little thunder, but not much. Looks like some pretty significant CAPE values tomorrow afternoon/evening, eclipsing 2,500 J/kg in some spots. The lapse rate looks pretty unstable, as well. The forecasted hodograph also predicts veering winds. The atmosphere also seems to really moisten up tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Well, looks like it's AL and GA's turn. Not really a turn I want to take though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrOldSchool Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Hope I do this right. These are photos of tree damage from last night's storm outside my office building here on UT's campus (McClung Tower). The street in the background of some is Volunteer Blvd near Circle Park. Not looking forward to the next ones tonight/tomorrow if the risk is on the bad side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Moderate Risk Day 2 has now been expanded.... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WEST VIRGINIA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE... MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF ITS BASE...AND GRADUALLY PIVOTS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE CYCLONE PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET CORE NOSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS CYCLOGENESIS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION ...WHICH COULD BE EXTENSIVE AND ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER INDICATIONS ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...EASTERN U.S... IN AREAS NOT IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION... PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS...AND PERHAPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A BROAD 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT COULD BE ONGOING OR RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IF AN LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE COLD POOL COULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION AND MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AND THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...IN THE WARM SECTOR ...AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE COULD OCCUR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPREADING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 04/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Seems like this is following the pattern of the system a little over 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm on my phone, so I'm not gomna post the paragraph, but I encourage everyone in AL, TN, and GA to read FFCs update posted about 12:45. Now I'm starting to get nervous.....they mention sig. Tornado parameters of 8-11 even in N Ga on Wed evening. Also, the last line reads something like: "guys, we really need to start getting ready for this.". Don't think I've ever read an ominous couple of lines from FFC like that. Someone post it if you could. Yeah I know for a fact I've never read a discussion so ominous from FFC. Their discussions the last few days on this severe weather have been excellent. They have been on top of it now for 3 or 4 days so kudos to them. Not sure what to expect though personally. SPCs hesitancy to extend the moderate risk any further east and gsp not sounding too worried about it makes me worried things will weaken a good bit. However, western/northwest ga is likely a different story. I wish we could get some discrete storms before the main event and there is a chance of it over the western half, I'm sure it's just going to be just another squall line by the time it gets here. Most of the time that is the case anyway. Was hoping for some storms today but it looks like north Ga is going to be totally screwed due to the remains of the convective complex over al. Satellite shows very little cumulus so not looking for much today over north ga, which sucks. I'm not hoping for damage or anything but the constant barrage of huge storms over the midwest has me somewhat jealous. Not to mention the insane rainfall amounts, some areas have above 15 inches of rain in the last few days. An absolutely HUGE area of that has gotten 6 or more inches of rain the last few days too. And it's far from over there too. One has to feel for those folks out there, they sure have caught hell this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Here's a day 1 outlook from Nov 2002......I believe it was BMX or someone that listed this as a good analog for what's about to occur tomorrow. The risk area matches us pretty well, but remains to be seen if parts of the south get upgraded to high risk. Looks to be a good bet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I just wish the timing wasn't going to be so poor for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Here's a day 1 outlook from Nov 2002......I believe it was BMX or someone that listed this as a good analog for what's about to occur tomorrow. The risk area matches us pretty well, but remains to be seen if parts of the south get upgraded to high risk. Looks to be a good bet though. Is this the Veteran's weekend outbreak. November 10-11, 2002? If so then yes analogs been showing this as a possibility for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I just wish the timing wasn't going to be so poor for central NC Poor is in for storms or not for storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 PDS watch out for NE Texas SW Arkansas, and NW Louisiana. The watch probs are sick. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0215.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Poor is in for storms or not for storms? Depends on how you look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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