Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 According to Jim Cantore on Twitter, surprisingly few injury reports from the Vilonia, AR tornado. Amazing how a tornado can wipe out a town of 2,000 and there not be a ton of injury reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Has there ever been a Day 2 High Risk? Yes April 6, 2006. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2otlk_20060406_1730.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Keep in mind NW GA is in the TN Valley also. Even though you say it may not be as bad in East AL and West/NW GA, i think this area could be in a Moderate Risk. Very little of GA is in the TN Valley. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tennessee_watershed.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yes April 6, 2006. http://www.spc.noaa....60406_1730.html Thanks. Will be interesting to see what the SPC goes with for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Very little of GA is in the TN Valley. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tennessee_watershed.png All the areas shaded in yellow on that map are the TN Valley, which includes much of TN, North AL, extreme North GA, and much of Western NC. Yes, that's right Western NC is in the TN Valley !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 All the areas shaded in yellow on that map are the TN Valley, which includes much of TN, North AL, extreme North GA, and much of Western NC. Yes, that's right Western NC is in the TN Valley !! Yes it is... I actually forgot that also. IMO I am not agreeing with the GA, NC, and SC less of a tornado threat theory. I think the risk is greater here since we will have the greatest heating and good amount of afternoon sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yes it is... I actually forgot that also. IMO I am not agreeing with the GA, NC, and SC less of a tornado threat theory. I think the risk is greater here since we will have the greatest heating and good amount of afternoon sun. I hear people saying the timing will be decrease the threat for tornadoes or whatever, but timing certainly didnt save AR from a tornado outbreak tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I hear people saying the timing will be decrease the threat for tornadoes or whatever, but timing certainly didnt save AR from a tornado outbreak tonight. Agreed. Especially as of late these storms have not weakened at all as night fell. If anything a few cells became stronger. ex. 4/6. If we can get discrete cells ahead of the main line which I think is very possible, we will be in a very dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Great post from a met, and something to look for as we get closer to Wednesday. Just thought I'd throw this out there.... Would be REALLY nervous about taking the modeled surface winds at absolute face value for Wednesday... with a deepening low pressure just to the west... in a large envelope of already low-enough-for-violent-tornadoes surface pressures over a large area... and the slp is trending stronger in the guidance. We've seen this bias in the NAM and GFS multiple times this year... only to see itself corrected at the last minute, sometimes the morning of... and we all of a sudden have this insane helicity that has seemingly come out of nowhere. Don't let numbers fool you when the meteorology on the map screams trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Great post from a met, and something to look for as we get closer to Wednesday. nice post... link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Reed Timmer on Twitter says he bets the Vilonia tornado gets an EF5 rating. Says its a very bad situation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 nice post... link? Mr. Gossage on Talkweather http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/56127-severe-threat-april-26-27/page__view__findpost__p__776010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yes it is... I actually forgot that also. IMO I am not agreeing with the GA, NC, and SC less of a tornado threat theory. I think the risk is greater here since we will have the greatest heating and good amount of afternoon sun. Where is 'here'? Can you add your location in your profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Where is 'here'? Can you add your location in your profile? Sorry about that. I am located in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 There are a couple on here that seem to "pulling" for a tornado for their area (to the point of geographical manipulation...just like winter!). By all means, if you get your wish you may never wish it again. I am friggin terrified of the notion of everything that I have worked for in life to be swept away in a matter of seconds but hey, if that's your thing!!! This could be very serious on Wednesday. Everyone be careful and hope for the best. Thanks for the updates from the pros/skilled hobbyist too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 There are a couple on here that seem to "pulling" for a tornado for their area (to the point of geographical manipulation...just like winter!). By all means, if you get your wish you may never wish it again. I am friggin terrified of the notion of everything that I have worked for in life to be swept away in a matter of seconds but hey, if that's your thing!!! This could be very serious on Wednesday. Everyone be careful and hope for the best. Thanks for the updates from the pros/skilled hobbyist too. I don't think anyone on here is pulling for a tornado in there area, me myself is just stating a very serious concern I have for the Carolina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Throughout all the years of my life from the point that I first became interested in severe wx up until now, I never really like it when the severity of a system like this gets this out of hand. Paved roads ripped, towns reduced to nearly nothing, extensive damage of the environment are things I rather not see happening in my area or anywhere else for that matter. I enjoy watching tornadoes develop on radar/videos and (hopefully one day) being able to record a live one but I think after the tornado outbreak across Eastern NC and what's been going on for the past few days now across the Arklatex area, I could do without such. Situations such as these strikes fear into me mainly because of the capability of what these storms can do and, in some cases, pan out differently for the worse than what modeling gave it credit for. Many a time a setup like this puts one of my worst childhood memories into my thoughts; the time that I was nearly struck by a tornado on my birthday (could you believe that). Watching that funnel as it developed and touch down on the ground just pass Rankin Lake with trees being downed, power lines snapped, and the roof of the rental building being destroyed was an intense experience that I never want a repeat of again. I forget what year it was that it happened but that Spring produced a killer of a pattern with numerous storms every week, similar to this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 There are a couple on here that seem to "pulling" for a tornado for their area (to the point of geographical manipulation...just like winter!). By all means, if you get your wish you may never wish it again. I am friggin terrified of the notion of everything that I have worked for in life to be swept away in a matter of seconds but hey, if that's your thing!!! This could be very serious on Wednesday. Everyone be careful and hope for the best. Thanks for the updates from the pros/skilled hobbyist too. I don't want to see tornadoes in this area, but I'd at least like to see some pea size hail or 40 mph winds, something I haven't seen all spring. I think there are some people that for whatever reason "love" to see houses destroyed, etc. As someone who has experienced a tornado firsthand, it is so sad to see people's lives just torn apart by a tornado. I personally hope Tues and Wed are total busts in regards to tornadoes. Tornadoes benefit no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Throughout all the years of my life from the point that I first became interested in severe wx up until now, I never really like it when the severity of a system like this gets this out of hand. Paved roads ripped, towns reduced to nearly nothing, extensive damage of the environment are things I rather not see happening in my area or anywhere else for that matter. I enjoy watching tornadoes develop on radar/videos and (hopefully one day) being able to record a live one but I think after the tornado outbreak across Eastern NC and what's been going on for the past few days now across the Arklatex area, I could do without such. Situations such as these strikes fear into me mainly because of the capability of what these storms can do and, in some cases, pan out differently for the worse than what modeling gave it credit for. Many a time a setup like this puts one of my worst childhood memories into my thoughts; the time that I was nearly struck by a tornado on my birthday (could you believe that). Watching that funnel as it developed and touch down on the ground just pass Rankin Lake with trees being downed, power lines snapped, and the roof of the rental building being destroyed was an intense experience that I never want a repeat of again. I forget what year it was that it happened but that Spring produced a killer of a pattern with numerous storms every week, similar to this period. I agree with everything you are saying. This could be a very memorable event for the Southeast. We will have no wedge, and nothing but warm moist air flowing from the Gulf. We should see sunshine during the day on Wednesday. All of this will equal a good chance of severe weather for the western and central Carolina's. And unfortunately these storms looks to strike after dark as current modeling is depicting. Timing of course could change, but I'd imagine the storms to to start rolling into the Upstate after dusk and into the Piedmont soon after. If we get some discrete cells going then it could get even nastier. But never underestimate the squall line. As large tornadoes can form from squall line embedded supercells. I would imagine a high risk being issued Tomorrow and Wednesday. I can also see several PDS waches being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 What is this system looking like for west Ga, in the I-20 area? I just have a bad feeling this time around, and I believe it is going to be worse here than what the Atlanta mets are saying. They down play severe systems way too much here, and overly hype weaker systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 What is this system looking like for west Ga, in the I-20 area? I just have a bad feeling this time around, and I believe it is going to be worse here than what the Atlanta mets are saying. They down play severe systems way too much here, and overly hype weaker systems. I'm not a meteorologist by any means, but my feeling is that this will be more of a straight line wind threat than a tornado threat for most of Georgia, with the potential for tornadoes to be embedded within a squall line. Of course it's going to be moving through at night like every one has this spring, so that may help to decrease the tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Just pushed out 07Z Severe Weather Analysis. Highest threat areas is showing Jackson, TN, El Dorado, AR / Monticello, AR / Greenville, MS / Lake Charles, LA areas. Showing surface based CAPE's around 2300 j/kg, 0-1KM EHI around 4.0, and 0-3KM SRH around 472 m/s. Potential to continue to see winds up to 72 knots, hail up to 4.4" in diameter, also environment still favorable for EF1/2 Tornadoe across these areas. as there is still a decent amount of low level shear values. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Day 2 Convective Outlook FWIW: Check out this footage of a tornado that ripped through Jackson, MS. I imagine a few tornadoes similar to this would be in store for some during the next event. Blog update: http://gwxmanblog.bl...ing-up-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The one potential saving grace I can find would be if remnant convection from what goes on tonight can keep parts of the TN valley overcast for a good part of the day tomorrow and limit instability. If tonight's stuff moves out quickly tomorrow, then it could get ugly. I've been a severe wx nut for awhile now and I can tell you that the setup does not get any more threatening than this for the TN valley. That isn't a guarantee, as small mesoscale features can make or break things, sometimes turning great synoptic setups into "junk", and sometimes turning lesser looking synoptic setups into something more ominous, but that kind of detail will have to be sorted out tomorrow. For now it is enough to say that, synoptically, you don't often see something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 FFC must be writing up one doozy of a forecast discussion this morning. 6am and they still haven't issued it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Folks here know they just dont have many options. 1) We dont/cant really have basements here in eastern NC 2) most people are not like us and arent glued to the radar etc when these things are happening 3) by the time the local on air met say folks on such and such road needs to take shelter its prolly to late to get in your car and try to get away. BINGO!!! Plus, most people have nowhere to go if they did decide they needed to evacuate...especially since the civil defense shelter system is no longer in operation. And add that to the fact that most people don't watch local TV or listen to local radio stations anymore. Their 1st clue that something is amiss is what they can see or hear out the window. Weather nuts like us may know that the conditions are favorable for severe weather days ahead of time and make arrangements to keep informed. Most people do not. A solution to the problem could be a campaign to have people buy All-Hazards radios like the campaign to put smoke detectors in people's homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 BINGO!!! Plus, most people have nowhere to go if they did decide they needed to evacuate...especially since the civil defense shelter system is no longer in operation. And add that to the fact that most people don't watch local TV or listen to local radio stations anymore. Their 1st clue that something is amiss is what they can see or hear out the window. Weather nuts like us may know that the conditions are favorable for severe weather days ahead of time and make arrangements to keep informed. Most people do not. A solution to the problem could be a campaign to have people buy All-Hazards radios like the campaign to put smoke detectors in people's homes. Surely everyone has weather radios to warn them of approaching severe weather ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 FFC must be writing up one doozy of a forecast discussion this morning. 6am and they still haven't issued it. Yep, they're honking on it pretty aggressively. Looks like a heck of a day coming up if all goes as forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Today, for your GRL3 viewing pleasure, I'm running: Columbus AFB MS - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Hunstville AL http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php Atlanta http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/ffc_284.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Today, for your GRL3 viewing pleasure, I'm running: Columbus AFB MS - http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_1.php Hunstville AL http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_2.php Atlanta http://www.daculawea...el3/ffc_284.php I really like your website and am typically glued to it watching the storms roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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