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Next severe weather event April 26-29


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Watch out Oconeexman

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1254 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL HABERSHAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

EASTERN RABUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLAYTON...

NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WALHALLA...

NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PICKENS...

SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 248

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

100 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

GEORGIA

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 100 AM UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW

241...WW 242...WW 244...WW 245...WW 246...WW 247...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ONGOING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TO NW OF MCN

WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS

WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. AREA VWPS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC DATA

INDICATE A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH

VALUES AS HIGH AS 500-700 M2/S2. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN

QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT

TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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Guys I'm a weather novice here and have a question. No work tomorrow. Is it worth staying up to see if these storms stay together and come my way. I am about 20 miles north of charlotte in Cornelius, NC. Just don't want to be caught off guard late tonight.

If it were me, I'd set the alarm and take a 40 minute nap, then check the weather in between 20 minute naps (most of us sleep in cycles of :20, :40, 1:20, and 3:00.)

Or maybe forget the alarm and just sleep in the bathtub with the mattress on top...

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Via Twitter (ThunderPig)...

A Macon Co Sheriff Deputy advises that the house on Dryman Ridge Rd is sitting in the roadway. Has requested EMS.

Reminds me of the movie Twister. :arrowhead: "I think we're going in."

I might luck out here if that area between Toccoa and Atlanta doesn't strengthen and start popping severe cells.

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Just as an aside-although terrain may weaken most tornadoes, it may not be a good idea to expect that it would weaken all tornadoes. Especially when the dynamics involved are as powerful as they have been today. Cases in point: During the 1974 Super Outbreak a number of the tornadoes tracked over hilly terrain without even noticing it. One western US tornado that formed in UT made it across the Divide in WY which is at 10000 ft elevation causing considerable tree damage. Bellemont and Flagstaff AZ are close to 7k elevation and in the mountain region north of the escarpment of the Mogollon Rim yet last October 8 tornadoes up to EF3 intensity formed in the area doing significant damage. The parent storms actually developed along the base of the Mogollon Rim and moved north where the tornadoes developed.

Steve

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SMYTH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WESTERN WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTERN BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA* UNTIL 145 AM EDT.* AT 108 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR QUARRY...OR 6 MILES WEST OF CHILHOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 100 MPH.

:o

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SMYTH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WESTERN WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTERN BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA* UNTIL 145 AM EDT.* AT 108 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR QUARRY...OR 6 MILES WEST OF CHILHOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 100 MPH.

:o

WHAT??? 100MPH?? Gotta be a misprint. The straightline winds alone would be devastating even if the cyclone never engages the terrain.

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WHAT??? 100MPH?? Gotta be a misprint. The straightline winds alone would be devastating even if the cyclone never engages the terrain.

Not a misprint...the storms were haulin' it through GA at 90mph. They should be here in Upstate in less than an hour. Not sure what to expect...I know exactly what I'm hoping for. :/

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

131 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

HENDERSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BREVARD...

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 129 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE

JOCASSEE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICKENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ROCKY BOTTOM AND LAKE TOXAWAY...

ROSMAN AND BALSAM GROVE...

TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...

CEDAR MOUNTAIN AND CAESARS HEAD...

LITTLE RIVER AND JONES GAP STATE PARK...

ETOWAH...

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Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia guys, let's get a check-in going.

Damage reports are beginning to trickle in. This doesn't compare at all to what happened in Alabama, Mississippi, and southern parts of Tennessee...but by Appalachian standards, this area was rocked tonight.

Camp Creek in southern Greene County, TN got hit hard. I heard on a scanner that "homes are leveled".

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.UPDATE...

SENDING AN UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR

ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX GRIDS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG FOR

A LARGE PORTION OF WEST GEORGIA...EXTENDING UP TO THE METRO

AREA...WITH AT LEAST 500 SBCAPES EVERYWHERE. 0-1KM HELICITY

300-500 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM

EAST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AT AFD TIME. SPC HAS

EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF METRO ATLANTA.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY LONG NIGHT AHEAD OF US STILL TEMPS NOT

FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT STILL HANGING

BACK...SO HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN

TEMPS AT THIS TIME. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

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Likely tornado damage. This rolled over Camp Creek:

post-1466-0-09733800-1303969813.png

Three confirmed fatalities in Greene County, likely all from Camp Creek.

Camp Creek gets hit multiple times per year with extremely strong mountain wave winds (often 85+ mph), and now this! That possible tornado formed very quickly over that area.

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CAE....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

200 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TOMARCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THISMORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSWITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILLMOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THEREGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHERCONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE FRONT WILLMOVE IN TO THE CSRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE MIDLANDSSHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MODERATE TOHIGH AND COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HASRESULTED TORNADO WATCH 248 THROUGH 8AM FOR THE CSRA...CENTRAL ANDWESTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE AS IT MOVESINTO THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMSPOSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EARLY TO LATEMORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEDAMAGING WINDS AS FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND SHEAR WILLBE LOWERED BY THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THURSDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATECONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...TAPERINGOFF IN THE WEST DURING THE MORNING...AND FINALLY MOVING TO THE COASTBY LATE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODERATELY UNSTABLE PARAMETERS AHEADOF THE FRONT. STILL SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...BUTWILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL MID-AFTERNOONTHURSDAY. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE UNTILAROUND MID AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THEAFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEARSKIES.

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