MotoWeatherman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Looks like the best of the day so far is fixing to roll thru MBY in Dahlonega.. (DW) on the radar map... Wish I was there to see it but I'm south of the TATL on the map on the south side of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Yea completely different with this mornings AFD. They mentioned possible supercells/tornadoes. FFC doesn't get overly concerned about anything. Best thing to do is read the discussion from BMX and extrapolate east. Usually pretty accurate. Their discussions are second to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Nasty cell moving through Hall County, GA. Rotating Thunderstorm Reflectivity: 63 dBZ Severe Hail: 50% Hail: 100% Max Hail Size: 1.25" Top: 38,000 ft. VIL: 53 kg/m² Site: JGX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 This one looks like a timing fail for NC but watch out TN on Wed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 They're getting hammered in Arkansas http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Another PDS watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Here is Dr. Forbes's tor:con for Wednesday. Forecast for Wednesday, April 27 AL north - 7 AL south - 5 FL west panhandle - 3 to 4 FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night GA north - 5 GA west-central - 4 GA south and east-central - 3 to 4 night SC west - 4 SC central and east - 3 to 4 night TN middle - 7 TN west - 4 to 5 TN east - 5 to 6 MS west and north - 4 MS southeast - 5 NC west - 4 NC central - 3 to 4 night KY east - 6 KY west - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Here is Dr. Forbes's tor:con for Wednesday. Forecast for Wednesday, April 27 AL north - 7 AL south - 5 FL west panhandle - 3 to 4 FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night GA north - 5 GA west-central - 4 GA south and east-central - 3 to 4 night SC west - 4 SC central and east - 3 to 4 night TN middle - 7 TN west - 4 to 5 TN east - 5 to 6 MS west and north - 4 MS southeast - 5 NC west - 4 NC central - 3 to 4 night KY east - 6 KY west - 4 I really hope a lot of people along the Appalachians do not sleep on the fact of just how dynamic this storm is going to be. I know a lot of times we look at the timing in regards to the severe weather...I don't have a good feeling for those in Georgia, East Tennessee and the Western Carolina's for Wednesday Night. If we get any long track tornadoes to develop over Alabama or Middle Tennessee, then I could see them translating pretty far to the east during the evening hours. Where timing benefits us is in regards to re-development...which I think would be limited during the overnight. So going into the day Wednesday, the extent of development just to our west will determine just how bad it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrOldSchool Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Just had a nice one sneak through here in Knoxville a day early. Came from the South, and had very heavy rain for about 15 minutes with pea sized hail mixed in and some nice gusts. Still some rumbles of thunder and a flash here/there. TV reporting power lines down near UT hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 In all the years I've followed weather, this is about the most concernec I've ever been about a tornado outbreak for the TENN Valley. I'm talking about Wednesday for that region. The dynamics are extreme, so nature will respond by many funnel touchdowns, I have no doubt about that, and several of these are likely going to be EF3 or greater. The 200mb jet splits right over the region abruptly by midday, the 5H sends a powerful vort down that rounds the bend and enhances lift to the absolute maximum, so the shear is going to be phenomenal. Look at the water vapor currently for the last 8 hours and see how things evolved today in TX, OK and ARK just to get an example of the explosive development, and the Wed. outbreak should be stronger. There will initially be a raincooled zone from extreme northern TN and southern KY, but just south of there in MEM to TUP region and eastern ARK the outbreak should begin quickly on Wednesday, then that line really takes shape and stretches more north to south, sweeping across northern MS, central AL to central TN, then toward the east to the APPS by dark. I'm still not leaning either way after dark as to what happens with the line, some runs keep it strong and the dynamics shift far enough east to keep it going, others are weakening since the energy lifts too far north and west, then perhaps re-develops over the Carolinas early Thursday. We can nail that down more tomorrow, but the arrows all point to the TENN Valley for certain as for a memorable outbreak. I hope those folks are prepared, this looks about as bad as it gets to me (but severe isn't my expertise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I keep hearing there will be a squall line moving through on Wed night, but will there be supercells out ahead of the squall line on Wed afternoon/evening in GA/AL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Great AFD from BMX: Still say some things need to be answered, but they think supercells/tornadoes and possible long-tracking ones, will be possible before they get forced into a line, but still mention that the line may have broken cells along it which would keep tornado threat high. LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS. HOWEVER...I AM STILL ON THE HESITANT SIDE AS I WOULD WANT TO WAIT TO SEE HOW EXACTLY THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT LATE TUESDAY. IF THINGS GO ACCORDING TO THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT...THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AND DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE ENERGY BEGINS TO BUILD AS BREAKS OF SUN HEAT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT AS THEY LOOK TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE CAP IS RATHER WEAK AND CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER WITH TIME SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL EASILY BE BROKEN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. THAT IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE JET MAX BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST...OR AS THE 0 TO 6 KM AND THE 0 TO 8 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 60 KTS...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THEIR ANGLE OF ATTACK SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS AND LONG-LIVED ONES AT THAT. MY FINAL QUESTIONS SURROUND THIS LOWEST SHEAR LAYER FROM 0 TO 1 KM. SYNOPTICALLY...WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL RUNS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE DOUBLE HELIX LOW AND FROM VARYING DEGREES OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ADD TO THAT...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS FRONT BEGINS TO GO LINEAR. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...WAS THINKING THAT WE START SUPERCELLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONLY TO TRANSITION LINEAR AFTER SUNSET...BUT A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE VECTOR ANGLES SHOWS THAT IT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FURTHER EAST INTO GA AND NORTH FL. SO...WHILE IT MAY BE A LINE...IT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BROKEN OR MORE CELLULAR LINE AS THE EVENT TRANSLATES EAST OF I65. REGARDLESS...MY BEST FORECAST IS THAT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND WEST OF I65 FROM 1 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER EVENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT WARRANTS ATTENTION. DO WHATEVER IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW SAFETY RULES AND PLANS AS IT MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Saw this posted on TW: Here is the threats for Central Alabama from BMX: I their afternoon breifing they mentioned about moving their tornado/wind to extreme. BMX's briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Damn...North of Little Rock Same cell just zoomed out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Seems this year all the tornados wanna hit big towns and population centers, the live feeds from Little Rock are insane lots of reports of a touchdown in N Little Rock right near the NWS office. Also the one above has been confirmed as a large wedge and several small towns have been hit and damage reports are coming in quick..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm surprised this place is so quiet tonight. Over on Talkweather they are talking like crazy about what's going in Arkansas. It seems like this forum doesn't get as excited about severe weather unless it's actually happening in the Carolinas. Well most of us arent in Ark that said lots of us do track them but we have a central/western forum where we are all at and this is being discussed..... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17617-monday-april-25th/page__st__120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Very ugly indeed back in the Arklatex region. I imagine how it looks over there will be similar in characteristics further east during Wednesday-early Thursday. Tornado warnings from Little Rock to Searcy, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Damn, don't get much stronger wording than this with an emergency... ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ROMANCE...AT 738 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF DAMAGE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MT VERNON...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF CABOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE... SEARCY... VILONIA... ROSE BUD... MT VERNON... HIGGINSON... GRAVEL HILL... ENOLA... CROSBY... SIDON... ROMANCE... OTTO... LETONA... JOY... FLOYD... EL PASO... CENTER HILL... ARMSTRONG SPRINGS... ALBION... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A VIOLENT...WEDGE TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LIFE THREATENING...CONFIRMED TORNADO CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION! TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 KATV in Little Rock just reported a church heavily damaged with injuries associated with the large tornado just NE of Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Damn, don't get much stronger wording than this with an emergency... Yeah thats a 12 on the ole 1-10 sphincter factor but the scans over on the central forum for this thing are insane gonna be a very strong tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Saw this posted on TW: Here is the threats for Central Alabama from BMX: I their afternoon breifing they mentioned about moving their tornado/wind to extreme. BMX's briefing. I wouldn't be surprised to see it upgraded to a "High Risk" by tomorrow afternoon. The greatest tornado threat will be the Birmingham region, i.e. "Central Alabama" on north. Considering the history of this storm system, North Georgia shouldn't rest on their laurel at all about it being an overnight threat. I'm expecting people whom are in the West Georgia counties to be on alert starting Tuesday night until early Thursday morning. Metro Atlanta did see some damage from the last storm system about 2 Fridays ago, so it might be a repeat episode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Reports in ARkansas that there was pavement lifted off the ground. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I think parts of Central AL could be put under a high risk, but I think it's more likely for areas closer to Huntsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Reports in ARkansas that there was pavement lifted off the ground. Wow. Wow. Guessing this thing could end up being a strong EF-4 or even a EF-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Besides downed trees, a lot of roofs are apparently flying off of everyone's houses and business buildings over there. Scary stuff. My prayers are going for the folks affected right now to be safe. I'm beginning to wonder why a high risk wasn't placed over there. A system like this poses too much of a threat to not at least consider an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 anyone know how far west this thing might shift? I am up in Louisville, ky and getting nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 terrible reports coming out of ARK right now. This is one of the best looking hook echoes I've ever seen. (between Batesville and Little Rock) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Agree that was one nasty hook shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Besides downed trees, a lot of roofs are apparently flying off of everyone's houses and business buildings over there. Scary stuff. My prayers are going for the folks affected right now to be safe. I'm beginning to wonder why a high risk wasn't placed over there. A system like this poses too much of a threat to not at least consider an upgrade. They did have PDS TWs up hours in advance, I wouldn't say the threat was not anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Wow just had some very high wind with this approaching severe thunderstorm! I would say some were around 50 mph and I just heard a tree fall! Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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