DixieBlizzard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 SPC MARS has been consistent with November 10, 2002 and November 15-16/89 as two possible analogs. No thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 the new NAM looks worse for the MidSouth. There's a 70kt 850 jet in eastern and northern Ala and middle TN right about the peak of the system at 72 hours. Its that time all the models have the front getting whiplashed east as the sfc low begins to suddenly pull north across mid TN and KY. Thats the zone I'd place as the highest risk for tornadoes, TN midstate to central and northern Alabama. Huntsville seems to get hit hard in situations like this, that area is just prone for development, but anywhere near that zone is going to deal with extremely strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 It seems to be an ongoing trend for the longest time now. Each new run of the modeling keeps showing a slightly more powerful jet throughout, especially at the 300 and 500 which by the NAM is now showing around 100 kts. across northern AL and MS through southern AR (previously it was weaker and further west), so already there is strong indication of increased speed and directional shear, especially at the low levels. SW Indiana to NE AR gets slammed big time as well with torrential rainfall amounting +4 inches total during the 60 hr. The 21z SREF is showing some very scary values of the sig tornadic parameter on the high end across parts of the Gulf Coast states and western TN. It begs the question regarding what the 0z GFS will show for tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk ends up being painted over parts of the Southeast for tonight's latest convective outlook or tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 It seems to be an ongoing trend for the longest time now. Each new run of the modeling keeps showing a slightly more powerful jet throughout, especially at the 300 and 500 which by the NAM is now showing around 100 kts. across northern AL and MS through southern AR (previously it was weaker and further west), so already there is strong indication of increased speed and directional shear, especially at the low levels. SW Indiana to NE AR gets slammed big time as well with torrential rainfall amounting +4 inches total during the 60 hr. The 21z SREF is showing some very scary values of the sig tornadic parameter on the high end across parts of the Gulf Coast states and western TN. It begs the question regarding what the 0z GFS will show for tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk ends up being painted over parts of the Southeast for tonight's latest convective outlook or tomorrow night. I hate to say this, but I really hope that we can get some good storms in the Charlotte metro from this. I would really love to be able to do some chasing in my backyard without having to drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Reviewing the overall guidance, support is definitely there for the nasty outbreak to continue eastward after the front departs from the Arklatex region. All suggest the secondary shortwave to rapidly deepen after the initial wave heads northeastward through the OV. The combo of the strong mid/upper level jets with the aid of the second shortwave's capability to cause additional turning of the winds aloft should be an alarm of powerful shear, both speed and directional, for quick super cellular development. This should be a great concern for anyone living within the TN Valley because the way I'm seeing it, this just argues for a few of these super cells to spawn strong tornadoes/intense bowing action with winds kicking up +80 mph possible. The abundance of the moist flow, sufficient instability, amongst all other parameters should yield increased severe wx threat over what was previously expected further east. Even places further north of TN could get in on some rough action as the front should stay in tact even after passing through the Apps. I'm thinking this will be a repeat of the 4/4 event where the front showed aggressiveness despite the time of day that it passed. Though the tornadic threat is reduced once crossing into the Carolinas, it would still be wise to be on guard as a strong tornado or two can still occur associated with any approaching squall line and considering that it will be dark, this just makes matters worse for trying to see where a tornado may be. Of course, this also means very large hail could be in store for some associated with any strong storm/tornado. The more I look at this data, the greater my concern grows for substantial damage for towns, countrysides, cities, etc. A powerful dynamically-driven system such as this is rather frightening when you think about it. It's going to be quite a doozy once this ride gets going. Will mention that as I suspected earlier, a moderate risk was possible: KBMX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 They've also reduced the threat from Severe to Moderate. I'll take that, especially since it (as usual) be traversing our area overnight. I wish we could get some action in the daylight hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 There's a 130+ mph jetstreak that places the TN valley and Apps then Carolinas in enhanced lift, as it pulls due north. The SFC low deepens as it tracks from central ARK to western TN , then shoots north toward Detroit or northern Ohio. During this process, the intial band of tornado probability will shift from ahead of the best shear in much of western TN stretching west to east, then orient more north to south, roughly northern MS, AL and toward central KY. By midnight that line will be approaching eastern TN, KY , Wva, western VA and western Carolinas to extreme N. GA. Then around sunrise the occluded low will probably do like the early April event and pull a thin line of severe toward northern NC and northward up into PA. It looks extremely similar in timing to the April 6 event overall, and the 5H turns neg. in almost the exact same spot. the red zone is where I think the best chance of TOR will be. your red zone lines up almost identical for the SPC 3 day risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Here we go with another big 3-day severe weather outbreak....this time with two distinct disturbances. One entering TX/ OK today, and the other one entering the west coast today. A rare 'moderate' risk it out for Day 3.....and the wording the SPC uses in the discussion is quite strong. In fact, 3 straight days of 45% hatched severe probabilities. This will be ugly. Spent a lot of time talking about the next few days [/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Wow! Day 3 Moderate! Sounds pretty scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Little Rock radar is going to be very active today: http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 FFC: Edited for emphasis. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 750 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUE-WED. VOLATILE SITUATION DEVELOPING THAT WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. THE PRIMARY AFFECT OF THIS ON THE FFC CWA WILL BE TUE-WED...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF TWO TO POTENTIALLY THREE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST TWO WILL IMPACT MAINLY NW/NC GA...THE THIRD WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE CWA. THE FIRST AND LEAST DEFINITE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUE AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT UPPER LOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH HINT AT A REMNANT/POSSIBLY REGENERATING SQUALL LINE REACHING THE NW PART OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CAPE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN THE NW/NC AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A BIGGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NW/NC GA COMES EARLY WED AS THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TN/MS/AL. A SEVERE QLCS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT TUE...APPROACHING NW/NC GA BY OR BEFORE 12Z...CONTINUING INTO MID-MORNING. VERY HIGH SHEAR...WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KTS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH CAPE FOR EARLY MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NW GA ACCOMPANYING THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE QLCS IS LIKELY...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE FINAL UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATES INTO THE PARENT LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE DEGREE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTAMINATION WILL LARGELY PLAY INTO THE DEGREE OF SEVERITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND WITH EXTREME SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. FINALLY...THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NW/NC GA...AS THESE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME REGION. STREAMS/CREEKS IN THIS REGION ARE HIGH FROM RECENT PREVIOUS EVENTS. AT THIS POINT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST NW OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES NW GA OVER THE 2-DAY PERIOD WILL AT A MINIMUM RESULT IN SOME RIVER FLOODING. AN ESF WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS THIS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 this is an extremely dynamic setup for the TN valley. The NAM would be a very bad outbreak in TN, northern MS, AL and eventually in eastern TN, KY and northern GA. Beyond that, it weakens as it comes across the Apps and re-develops Thursday, but not as strong as what happens west of the mountains. The GFS though is faster and maintains more a tornado threat east of the Apps, the timing is pretty bad however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 No thanks!! One of those tracks right over my parents house. I remember watching the wall cloud pass about 100 yards to our north. It was scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Little Rock radar is all lit up but nothing too severe yet http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 It sure has been a crazy year for severe weather. Not sure where we stand but it has to be on up there at the top of the list because it seems like every single front is producing a lot of severe weather. Hope I do better though than the last couple. Haven't had much to brag about since that severe line went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Stuff popping up around Atlanta now. My temp is around 80 with a DP of 66. http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/ffc_284.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Intense line of storms moving through SW TN (tornado warning for Germantown)/NW corner of MS. Also some scattered storms traveling northward through the NC mountains/northern foothills with a severe thunderstorm currently south of Sparta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Tornado reported near Collierville (Shelby County) TN That particular cell is topping 40K ft You can see that storm on this radar view. http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BAILEY...OR NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. AT 1240 PM A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT AT HACKS CROSS ROAD AND HIGHWAY 385. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Severe thunderstorms in North Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Severe thunderstorms in North Georgia. Cell 1 Severe Thunderstorm Fulton County, GA DBZ: 62 Severe Hail: 40% Hail: 90: Max Size: 1.00" Top: 30,000 VIL: 41 kg/m2 Site: KATL Cell 2 Severe Thunderstorm Lumpkin County, GA DBZ: 55 Severe Hail: 30% Hail: 100% Max Size: 0.75" Top: 26,000 VIL: 36 kg/m2 Site: KHTX There's a third below that is moving northward to the northwest of Gainesville similar to cell 2. It's been strengthening for a while now and is nearing Dahlonega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 CAE.................. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --THE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE NAM AND GFSSHOW H5 HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGHAFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATETUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATUREAPPEARS LACKING WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS APPEARREASONABLE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST PART WHERETHERE SHOULD BE STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVETROUGH. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COLD ALOFT. THE NAM INDICATES H5TEMPERATURES NEAR -11 WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50. THE MODERATEINSTABILITY PLUS DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS AIDING DOWNDRAFTSSUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCEWAS CONSISTENT. BEST DYNAMICS FOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. NAM GIVES LIS -4/-5 WITH CAPES2000-3000 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TOTALS AROUND 50 AND PWVALUES 1.5-1.6 INCH. NAM ALSO GIVES A STRONG H850 SOUTH TOSOUTHWEST JET OF 40-50 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAYEVENING. PREVIOUS 12 KM NAM RUN HAD STRONGER SHEAR BUT 12Z RUNGIVES 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES 200-300 M2/S2. THE 12Z 80 KM NAM ISSHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG OMEGA ON THE NORTHEAST GULF INCLUDINGTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMETIMES CONVECTION INTHIS REGION TAKE DEPLETE ENERGY TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGING DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM. ALSO...SPCHAS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR MAINLYTUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK LOCATED WELL TO THEWEST IN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.SPC SLIDES THE SLIGHT RISK TO COVER MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINAWEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MODERATE RISK REMAINS TOTHE WEST BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO ATL IN NORTHWEST GA AND OVER MOST OFTENNESSEE.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Cam image from that Dahlonega cell and, no, that is not fog. The image is from 403pm...the time stamp is off an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Cam image from that Dahlonega cell and, no, that is not fog. The image is from 403pm...the time stamp is off an hour. Nice man! Your place looks nice and green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Nice man! Your place looks nice and green! Thanks! The grass is green and lots to cut. Up to .82" so far today and I really wasn't expecting anything today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Got a nice thunderstorm...Been awhile since I last heard thunder, sun coming back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 PDS Watch out. 60% chance of F2-F5 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 That 3 day outlook has me concerned. It is almost a copy of what it looked like 3 days before the April 16th tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 FFC doesn't seem to be overly concerned with the storm system this week. Looks like most of it will be to our north, but we could still get some severe weather.... THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 FFC doesn't seem to be overly concerned with the storm system this week. Looks like most of it will be to our north, but we could still get some severe weather.... THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. Yea completely different with this mornings AFD. They mentioned possible supercells/tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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