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Next severe weather event April 26-29


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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0211 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS

PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN

ALABAMA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

AREA....ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND

NORTHERN GEORGIA...THE WESTERN

CAROLINAS...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN

INDIANA...OHIO...PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK

AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....

..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE

...A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADOES APPEARS

UNDERWAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL EXPAND

NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

REMNANTS OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ITS

ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL...JUST EAST OF UPPER PORTIONS OF THE

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...REMAIN A

COMPLICATING FACTOR CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...

LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL MAY BE IN THE

PROCESS OF WEAKENING. AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH

THE PRECEDING RAINFALL...COUPLED WITH LATE AFTERNOON INSOLATION AND

MODIFYING LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG

DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...PROBABLY WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO JUSTIFY EXPANDING

MODERATE RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD

THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC AND 12Z ECMWF...INDICATE

THAT A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MIGRATES

NORTHWARD OUT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY

...INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT

FALLS CENTERED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...FROM NEAR ITS CONFLUENCE WITH

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE CINCINNATI OH AREA BETWEEN 28/00-06Z.

A 50-70 KT 850 MB JET APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD TO THE

WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES

NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO OHIO BY LATE THIS

EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH

LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. GIVEN AT LEAST

WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR

POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR STRONG /STRAIGHT LINE/

DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/27/2011

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Getting ever closer. Knoxville metro under TOR:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KINGSTON.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

KINGSTON...LOUDON...LENOIR CITY...OAK RIDGE...CLINTON...

KNOXVILLE...OLIVER SPRINGS...FARRAGUT...DEARMOND...BRADBURY...

KARNS...BEARDEN...POWELL...LAKE CITY...LAKE FOREST...NORRIS AND

HALLS.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

242 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON...NOXUBEE AND NORTHERN KEMPER COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.

REPORTS OF DAMAGE ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND

NEAR BOND. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANIH WAIYA

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Looks like the radar picked up on debris as this cell passed just to the north of Phili, MS that is...

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It was a good call to drop it, in fact a tornado watch was a bit much to begin with given the setup.

I agree, I think they just aren't taking any chances today. They saw a few severe cells with a bit of rotation to them and decided to just go with it. Can't say I blame them.

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Beleive me, I am not complaining. I just can't recall an instance where one was issued then cancelled less than 2 hours later.

Yeah, seems early to me to cancel it. The sun is back out, the temps are going up, and seems like that would cause instability again for more storms. Maybe we will see more, but not just severe enough for a tornado watch.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

242 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON...NOXUBEE AND NORTHERN KEMPER COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.

REPORTS OF DAMAGE ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND

NEAR BOND. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANIH WAIYA

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Looks like the radar picked up on debris as this cell passed just to the north of Phili, MS that is...

A scary situation with this storm. I hope this is a rural area because this one means business!

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