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Next severe weather event April 26-29


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TOR reported in Hamilton County, TN, for the second time today....

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/FOR MARION AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AT 255 PM EDT...A LINE OF TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WAS REPORTED. THESE TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE VALLEY TO OOLTEWAH TO EAST BRAINERD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF CHATTANOOGA TO 6 MILES EAST OF CHATTANOOGA TO LAKEVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... SHADY GROVE...SALE CREEK...COLLEGEDALE AND BIRCHWOOD.

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Do yall think the Upsate of SC will be spared, or are we gonna get hit hard? It seems like most of the focus on tornadoes is for the states West of me.

The focus is on the West of Upstate SC because that's where everything is happening (aside from Eastern NC). You shouldn't be worried about any tornadoes or severe weather until after midnight. That, of course, could be an even bigger concern - depending on your perspective.

It has been sunny and warm most of the day (if not all). Dewpoint was 66 at 9:00 this morning. I'd say chances are better than good that you'll wake up a time or two between midnight and 4:00 AM.

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Rolling now...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A

LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF SODDY-DAISY TO 6 MILES EAST OF

HARRISON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST TO

NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

ATHENS...ETOWAH...BIG SPRING...HILLSVIEW...CALHOUN...RICEVILLE...

DENTVILLE...CLEAR WATER...NIOTA AND ENGLEWOOD.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

POLK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

CHATTANOOGA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55

MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF ALSO PRODUCING QUARTER TO GOLF

BALL SIZED HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

CLEVELAND...BENTON...DUCKTOWN...CHARLESTON...MCDONALD...FLINT

SPRINGS...HOPEWELL...WATERVILLE...GAP SPRINGS...TASSO...

CONASAUGA...PARKSVILLE...BIG FROG MOUNTAIN...RELIANCE...

ARCHVILLE...COPPERHILL AND TURTLETOWN.

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AT 140 PM CDT...FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND

NEAR COUNTY ROAD 369 AND COUNTY ROAD 469 IN SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE

COUNTY. THIS TORNADO WAS NOW LOCATED NEAR LAFAYETTE SPRINGS...OR 13

MILES EAST OF OXFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. DAMAGE HAS BEEN

REPORTED WITH THIS TORNADO. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR THAXTON...ESPERANZA

AND PINEDALE SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW.

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Do yall think the Upsate of SC will be spared, or are we gonna get hit hard? It seems like most of the focus on tornadoes is for the states West of me.

We'll have our fair share of rough action across the Carolinas for tonight as the front nears us. As we progress through the rest of the day and into tonight, the upper level trough will swing into our region with a strengthening LLJ attending it. The parameters are decent with moderate instability in place. The deep layer shear will remain strong and thus combined with the other features aloft will result in us receiving winds gusting around 80mph, large hail, and of course supercellular development. In fact, given the history of this system and the environment ahead of the front, it would not surprise me if a few discrete supercells were to erupt as well. It still looks to be sometime between midnight and 4am that the main squall line moves in through the NC mountains, and then crossing the central Carolinas for the early morning hours, departing by sometime later in the morning. Far eastern NC/SC looks to be affected for a part of the afternoon tomorrow as the front exits the Southeast.

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Meanwhile, ahead of the primary action, winds are howling at somewhat dangerous speeds in the mountains...

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WIND

ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE

EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* WINDS: WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL REACH 30

TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS

COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS: THESE WINDS MAY DOWN TREES OR TREE LIMBS...AS WELL AS

POWER LINES. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED.

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SPC seems to be downplaying immediate threat to the Southern Apps:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0222 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...SERN KY...WRN VA/NC...SRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271922Z - 272045Z

PORTIONS OF ERN TN...SERN KY...WRN VA/NC AND SRN WV MAY EXPERIENCE

SOME INCREASE IN SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL AS UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHES

THE REGION. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A

WW WILL BE NEEDED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF MCS OVER

MIDDLE/SERN TN...WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO

THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN RESPONSE

TO THE HEATING...WHICH MAY AID IN MCS MAINTENANCE OR ADDITIONAL

STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT...ANY STORMS OCCURRING

ACROSS THE AREA COULD BECOME SVR. HOWEVER...DUE TO ONLY MODEST

INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WW N OF WW 231

WILL BE NECESSARY.

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