audioguy3107 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Looks like SPC shifted the high risk ever so slightly closer to the Atlanta area. If you look closely at the regional radar, most of the heavier complexes are being shunted off to the north. If that continues to happen, that'll allow plenty of breaks in the clouds from central Alabama to N. Georgia. This trend does not bode well for the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I don't think it is so much of more "stable" air as it has to do with the line moving further away from the better dynamics. Since there has been little heating of the day you don't have that lift yet. Patience.... the storms will come. Hope everyone stays safe today/tonight. It will get very bad for a lot of the SE and I pray there are no more fatalities. The way it was explained to me, it's sort of like waves mellowing out as they move farther away from whatever caused them. Unless addition stirring takes place, they continue to lessen. But ti doesn't mean they can't surge ahead as soon as something else hits the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Why was the airmass more stable in GA than AL ? It's not like we had a lot of rain ahead of the line of storms. BTW we had about 20 mph winds in Carrollton, nothing impressive. Part of it is the time of day. Usually the early morning around and right after sunrise is known as the convective minimum. Along with the rest of you I am very concerned about tonight for northern Georgia and the western and central Carolinas. Seems like the last two nights the models have underperformed on the intensity, speed, and longevity of these squall lines. This could very well be a repeat or even slightly worse than the line that went through April 4th, and 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I am nervous about this one for sure, made sure there is space in my under stairs closet for kitties and me. looks like a small taste is on it's way here. Stay safe all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Part of it is the time of day. Usually the early morning around and right after sunrise is known as the convective minimum. Along with the rest of you I am very concerned about tonight for northern Georgia and the western and central Carolinas. Seems like the last two nights the models have underperformed on the intensity, speed, and longevity of these squall lines. This could very well be a repeat or even slightly worse than the line that went through April 4th, and 5th. Yeah it always seems to weaken in GA when storms move through at night or in the morning, yet in AL it can move through at almost any time of the night or morning ( like this morning) and still stay strong. I don't buy the time of day argument this time around considering all the damage it caused in AL, and it's not like we're that far from AL so the dynamics can't be that much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 In regards to the main show tonight, what ares do you consider most under the gun ?\ Thanks I'd say the line gets going in northeast Miss, and the northwest part of Alabama, then grows and begins to bow out, with embedded strong tornadoes by the time its in northern Alabama. By 00z or so its close to northern GA and western GA , central to eastern TN, and the strong winds at 850 show a strong jet with veering going on as the strong vortmax is at its peak, so that should whiplash the line through, similar to this mornings event, meaning it sweeps pretty rapidly across northern GA and eastern TN and into sw NC by midnight. Beyond that, we'll have to see later on today how the mesoscale parameters look, but in general a strong to very strong line and probably a legitimate tornado outbreak will occur in northern AL, southern TN, southeast TN, nrn GA and sw NC..thats my worst looking area, imo. That line may (or may not) be very strong once it crosses the mountains. I think it will , or thats where I'm leaning right now, since its still relatively close to the support and the speed usually outpaces the models. Eventually it probably would weaken, the more it gets away from its support and momentum works out and dwindles, but sometimes the line can take on a life of its own, so its probably too early for the central Carolinas to assume its going to die out just yet. A case can be made for either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 CIN increasing over N GA into E AL. We may get some sun across Northern Ga within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 CIN increasing over N GA into E AL. We may get some sun across Northern Ga within the next few hours. You're pretty close to me, and we already have sun breaking through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 You're pretty close to me, and we already have sun breaking through here. Yea I still have some overcast, but can see clouds trying to break up. Just going to add fuel to the fire for later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I was just looking at the 6z run of the GFS and NAM. Probably can't take the winds at 900mb too seriously since it depends on convection (I think..someone correct me if I'm wrong) but they both have a band of high winds esp around 900 mb which is about 2500 feet off the ground, to the tune of 60, 70 or even 80mph. The GFS is stronger than NAM which is unusual. This would be for the northern part of Alabama and nw GA and eastern TN tonight associated with the line itself. So if thats right, any good updrafts/downdrafts will easily bring 75MPH winds to the surface. If I recall , I remember the NAM showing this during the early April event here in the Carolinas just east of the mountains, and it worked out for sure. Obviously the timing may be off some still, but the point is a strong line of derecho type winds may develop somewhere in Ala, GA Tenn, and the western Carolinas tonight with the line. This line could get extremely well developed and flatten a lot trees, do major damage where it rolls through. It did major , nearly Icestorm type damage in this county. Every neighborhood had major trees uprooted, or almost every neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yeah it always seems to weaken in GA when storms move through at night or in the morning, yet in AL it can move through at almost any time of the night or morning ( like this morning) and still stay strong. I don't buy the time of day argument this time around considering all the damage it caused in AL, and it's not like we're that far from AL so the dynamics can't be that much different. I remember reading in the main forum a thread about severe weather stats, one of the maps showed Alabama as having a markedly higher incidence of tornadoes compared to Georgia. So there is some truth behind all our weenieism and whining. Nonetheless this looks to be a major severe weather day for north Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I remember reading in the main forum a thread about severe weather stats, one of the maps showed Alabama as having a markedly higher incidence of tornadoes compared to Georgia. So there is some truth behind all our weenieism and whining. Nonetheless this looks to be a major severe weather day for north Georgia. Yes, it is quite remarkable how many more tornadoes there are in AL compared to GA, despite the close proximity of the 2 states. It's not like we have huge mountains that storms have to go over like they do in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 The sun is breaking through in Marietta at the office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 The sun is breaking through in Marietta at the office X2 Here in South Marietta near Smyrna and the sun is peeking out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Sun is out with 66 degree Dewpoints, temp at 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 70/66 at the house right now. Sun coming through here in Gwinnett too. Calling for 85 today. If it gets that high we're in deep trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 anyone hear any report out of Rome, GA? I heard the first storm caused several tree to come down with power issues.. Just heard can't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Very warm and muggy here. Temp of 75, DP of 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 anyone hear any report out of Rome, GA? I heard the first storm caused several tree to come down with power issues.. Just heard can't verify. I can verify... One of my co-workers lives a little southeast of Rome and reported "trees and power lines down but nothing too severe" in his words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 anyone hear any report out of Rome, GA? I heard the first storm caused several tree to come down with power issues.. Just heard can't verify. Floyd Co EMA reports trees down on the west side of Rome. Currently 80/72 with the sun shining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Again, there is nothing that any of us can do or say that's going to change the inevitable outcome of what today may bring but I just don't understand why some folks here "hopes" this happens. My wish is for people like snowstorm2011 to get their EF5 tornado and I'll come visit his damage. Maybe his storm can move him to north Ga? I cannot see where the sun coming out (which it is) is a good thing given the dynamics! I love a good train wreck like the next guy but there has already been great tornado footage this year and that's not how I want my 15 minutes of fame to go down. I will say this, based on everything I am seeing, this could be a day many of us speak about for years to come. From a scientific standpoint, simply captivating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 X2 Here in South Marietta near Smyrna and the sun is peeking out.... Marietta always gets hit pretty hard. My brother lived off Windy Hill in '98 and a couple tornadoes took out the restaurants right off the exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Again, there is nothing that any of us can do or say that's going to change the inevitable outcome of what today may bring but I just don't understand why some folks here "hopes" this happens. My wish is for people like snowstorm2011 to get their EF5 tornado and I'll come visit his damage. Maybe his storm can move him to north Ga? I cannot see where the sun coming out (which it is) is a good thing given the dynamics! I love a good train wreck like the next guy but there has already been great tornado footage this year and that's not how I want my 15 minutes of fame to go down. I will say this, based on everything I am seeing, this could be a day many of us speak about for years to come. From a scientific standpoint, simply captivating. I'm not hoping for an EF5 tornado at all. I hope I see no tornado, but it would be nice to get some relatively interesting weather for a change. Maybe a 50 mph wind gust or pea size hail. All we've had this spring is rain, rain, and more rain. Nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I'm not hoping for an EF5 tornado at all. I hope I see no tornado, but it would be nice to get some relatively interesting weather for a change. Maybe a 50 mph wind gust or pea size hail. All we've had this spring is rain, rain, and more rain. Nothing more. Meanwhile, you are whining because Alabama is getting damage and you're not....whatever dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Sun has been in and out here too. Temperature up to 78 now with a dew point of 70. Storms now firing over the foothills and upstate. Just the tip of the iceberg of what should be an extremely active day and night for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I was watching the streaming reports coming out of Memphis and Little Rock last night, those guys were busier than a three legged man at a butt kicking contest. It was non-stop warnings for several hours. I just have a feeling based on all the parameters coming into place AND on the large area of partly cloudy skies headed our way. Yesterday, there was zero on radar until 2pm, then all of a sudden BAM! It's like someone flipped a switch. I anticipate the same thing here today. I just want to get the kids out of school before it happens (they start leaving our school around 2:30-3:00pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Down to 1 TW and it's for that less than impressive cell near Knoxville. Granted, I'm pretty surprised there aren't any for the cells in NE MS. Maybe things will calm down a bit before the real show starts a little later today. edit: As soon as I post they warn the cell in MS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I was watching the streaming reports coming out of Memphis and Little Rock last night, those guys were busier than a three legged man at a butt kicking contest. It was non-stop warnings for several hours. I just have a feeling based on all the parameters coming into place AND on the large area of partly cloudy skies headed our way. Yesterday, there was zero on radar until 2pm, then all of a sudden BAM! It's like someone flipped a switch. I anticipate the same thing here today. I just want to get the kids out of school before it happens (they start leaving our school around 2:30-3:00pm). My sister in north Jefferson County, AL (Bham area) called and said they let schools out at 1030am because buses were having a hard time getting the kids to school due to fallen trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Marietta always gets hit pretty hard. My brother lived off Windy Hill in '98 and a couple tornadoes took out the restaurants right off the exit. Yea there is like a small tornado alley from Carrol county NE into Cherokee county. This is old, but from 1950-2009 Cobb county had the third most tornadoes than any other county in Georgia, Hall county also gets a lot of tornadoes. It's interesting as soon as you get E of the 285 perimeter how tornadoes nearly cut in half, except for Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Ironically (or not), I'm headed downtown tomorrow for CBS Atlanta Weatherfest. Even get a tour of the studios afterwards. I can't wait to get in there and start punching buttons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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