msuwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yeah, I agree.....time and time again these lines out-pace the models by a good deal. However, this one this morning is to a new extreme. I mean, it's a full 4-5 hours ahead of the RPM....this updates every 3 hours! Very interesting to watch, and I agree....the potential for a nasty line of storms, maybe earlier than indicated, is there for the Carolinas. Just a note in general....anybody that doesn't think squall lines are dangerous needs to take a look at some of the images I am seeing from Alabama. This has been an incredible event this morning. I was thinking the same thing. No model had it this far, it literally rocketed northeast from La/Ark/Miss region just a few hours ago. I think it may actually bring some storms and rain to the western Carolinas by noon or shortly after, unless it totally dissippates by then. Hard to say, but cloud tops and where the cooling is on INF shows not that much decay. One thing I'm watching for us tonight is how quickly the next line develops in the same areas to the west, when this final strong 5H vort rounds the bend in western TN. The models show a strong line forming again, but I think maybe once again, it will race east and northeast, reaching the mtns before midnight and spilling toward Upstate and CLT region right after midnight tonight. That could be a dangerous line similar to the one a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 thats the one that has a meso low that began wrapping up southwest of BHM and tracked all the way to northeast Alabama. Its showing some weakening now the last few frames, but for a while there it must have been an incredible storm. It's a really interesting cell. I thought the 4 TVS radar image was a good indication of what it had been doing based on reports and the radar images with the large meso dropping multiple vortices. As has been said I didn't expect to wake up and find the storms so robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This is going to be bad for the ATL metro if they hold together.... they are moving at 60+ mph and will arrive at the tail end of rush hour. Everyone either needs to get to work now or stay home until they pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yeah, I agree.....time and time again these lines out-pace the models by a good deal. However, this one this morning is to a new extreme. I mean, it's a full 4-5 hours ahead of the RPM....this updates every 3 hours! Very interesting to watch, and I agree....the potential for a nasty line of storms, maybe earlier than indicated, is there for the Carolinas. Just a note in general....anybody that doesn't think squall lines are dangerous needs to take a look at some of the images I am seeing from Alabama. This has been an incredible event this morning. Any chance this rain and cloud cover will hold on longer than expected this morning in NC and keep the temps down and the instability down for storms later tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I doubt rain and storms will do much to hamper instability today in NC.....CAPE values approach 1500-2000 on the NAM this afternoon.....it is a matter of how much instability is left when the dynamics arrive. Any chance this rain and cloud cover will hold on longer than expected this morning in NC and keep the temps down and the instability down for storms later tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 816 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CATOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN CHATTOOGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA SOUTHERN DADE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WALKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WEST CENTRAL WHITFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA * UNTIL 900 AM EDT * AT 813 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF CLOUDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHICKAMAUGA...LAFAYETTE AND FORT OGLETHORPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 The heart of this current line is on a beeline towards me. If it can maintain it will get VERY windy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This trend seems too similar to what happened two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 CNN reporting a tornado in Marshall County, AL and possible people trapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This is going to be bad for the ATL metro if they hold together.... they are moving at 60+ mph and will arrive at the tail end of rush hour. Everyone either needs to get to work now or stay home until they pass! Looks to me like they are losing their zip. Tops were as high as 33k feet. The highest one I can find now is 26k and it was 33k just 5 minutes ago. Great disco Matthew and Robert, the models under performing the severity gives me pause and concern for the entire SE for what is to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I know it still remains to be seen, but typical squall line causing cloudiness all over N. Ga. Just once I'd like to see what happens on a mod to high risk day without cloud cover around here. If atmosphere reloads fully after this I'll be really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It's what's coming AFTER this first line that should have everyone worried. Other than some rain, I don't expect much out of this first batch. I have Huntsville http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_3.php Birmingham http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php and Little Rock up right now http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php along with Atlanta http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/ffc_284.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I know it still remains to be seen, but typical squall line causing cloudiness all over N. Ga. Just once I'd like to see what happens on a mod to high risk day without cloud cover around here. If atmosphere reloads fully after this I'll be really surprised. This system is dynamically driven so I don't think there will be any issues with storms NOT re-firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It's what's coming AFTER this first line that should have everyone worried. Other than some rain, I don't expect much out of this first batch. I have Huntsville http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_3.php Birmingham http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_1.php and Little Rock up right now http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_2.php along with Atlanta http://www.daculawea...el3/ffc_284.php exactly, this afternoon is when the fireworks will get rolling in N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 The tornado that's on the ground in that cell in extreme NE AL looks to be tracking very close to Chattanooga in the near future. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 837 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWEST BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 930 AM EDT/830 AM CDT/ * AT 834 AM EDT/734 AM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRIDGEPORT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... CHATTANOOGA...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...SIGNAL MOUNTAIN...HARRISON... HALETOWN (GUILD)...RED BANK...EAST BRAINERD...MIDDLE VALLEY... OOLTEWAH...COLLEGEDALE AND MCDONALD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This system is dynamically driven so I don't think there will be any issues with storms NOT re-firing. Exactly my thoughts.... I mean there is already ANOTHER tornado warned cell in Eastern Mississippi.... This is going to get pretty bad across most of Alabama... I'll keep a close eye on my Eastern Alabama viewers because I think the storms will hold together longer (as they have this morning) and will make it into my viewing area... It's going to be a LONG day... Also, looking at the 10Z run of the HRRR, it's a few hours slow with this first batch of rain, so we'll have to see if this is a trend that will continue into the afternoon/evening hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Looks to me like they are losing their zip. Tops were as high as 33k feet. The highest one I can find now is 26k and it was 33k just 5 minutes ago. Great disco Matthew and Robert, the models under performing the severity gives me pause and concern for the entire SE for what is to come. I'm still seeing many 30k plus foot tops in NW GA on my Grlevel3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 What's the best site for watching tornado chases live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 http://lmgtfy.com/?q=live+tornado+chasers What's the best site for watching tornado chases live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This system is dynamically driven so I don't think there will be any issues with storms NOT re-firing. Yeah, I hope I'm wrong (or right!) whichever your perspective is, it's just that I've lived here my entire life and can't remember 1 significant severe weather outbreak that was preceded by a day of overcast cloudiness. Hopefully we'll be able to get some breaks after this first line passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 What's the best site for watching tornado chases live? This is the one I use... http://www.chasertv.com/ I doubt there will be a great number of chasers on today...it doesn't seem that the areas most likely to be affected would be very good or safe places to chase tornadic storms (hills, trees, etc.). I could be (and probably am) wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This is the one I use... http://www.chasertv.com/ I doubt there will be a great number of chasers on today...it doesn't seem that the areas most likely to be affected would be very good or safe places to chase tornadic storms (hills, trees, etc.). I could be (and probably am) wrong, though. I contemplated driving over around the Birmingham area to set up shop and go from there, but this may be too dangerous of a day for me. Chasing in the SE isn't exactly the best environment anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I contemplated driving over around the Birmingham area to set up shop and go from there, but this may be too dangerous of a day for me. Chasing in the SE isn't exactly the best environment anyway. Got an amateur chaser buddy in the Huntsville area this morning/today. dude is still at his hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Storms look to be dying out as they move east. Possible moving into a more stable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Storms look to be dying out as they move east. Possible moving into a more stable airmass. Why was the airmass more stable in GA than AL ? It's not like we had a lot of rain ahead of the line of storms. BTW we had about 20 mph winds in Carrollton, nothing impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Storms look to be dying out as they move east. Possible moving into a more stable airmass. I think whats about to happen (more so here than your area) is a development for the western Carolinas. The upstate SC first, then most of western quarter of NC. Strong south, southeast winds ahead of a decaying meso low thats takeing the perfect track for re-development of rains in the upslope areas and generally anywhere of I-77. Then after midday, partial clearing and the main show arrives from west to east tonight. Its going to get rough, no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I think whats about to happen (more so here than your area) is a development for the western Carolinas. The upstate SC first, then most of western quarter of NC. Strong south, southeast winds ahead of a decaying meso low thats takeing the perfect track for re-development of rains in the upslope areas and generally anywhere of I-77. Then after midday, partial clearing and the main show arrives from west to east tonight. Its going to get rough, no doubt about it. In regards to the main show tonight, what ares do you consider most under the gun ?\ Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Why was the airmass more stable in GA than AL ? It's not like we had a lot of rain ahead of the line of storms. BTW we had about 20 mph winds in Carrollton, nothing impressive. I don't think it is so much of more "stable" air as it has to do with the line moving further away from the better dynamics. Since there has been little heating of the day you don't have that lift yet. Patience.... the storms will come. Hope everyone stays safe today/tonight. It will get very bad for a lot of the SE and I pray there are no more fatalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I don't think it is so much of more "stable" air as it has to do with the line moving further away from the better dynamics. Since there has been little heating of the day you don't have that lift yet. Patience.... the storms will come. Hope everyone stays safe today/tonight. It will get very bad for a lot of the SE and I pray there are no more fatalities. Totally agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Can't this line lay down some Outflow boundaries, which could help trigger some storms later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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