Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Does anyone know how accurate the Tor-Con index is ? I have a Tor-Con of 4 tomorrow while areas 15-20 miles to my west have a Tor-Con of 8 or 9. That confuses me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I just looked at the torcon as well. Ok so I am to assume where I live is in the 4 range, but my county is in a moderate risk for tomorrow. I just have always felt that Haralson county is more north Ga, than central because to me central Ga is in the area where Macon is located since it's pretty much mid state. I guess this is just a wait and see game at this point. I just don't want our area to be caught off guard since the Atlanta market seems to be saying this is not that big of a threat for us as far as tornadoes are concerned, and then we get slammed with tornado warnings. Is it me, or does anyone else around Atlanta feel that our meteorologists here down play a lot of severe weather events? I am a mere 11 miles from the Alabama line right off of 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Does anyone know how accurate the Tor-Con index is ? I have a Tor-Con of 4 tomorrow while areas 15-20 miles to my west have a Tor-Con of 8 or 9. That confuses me. Eh, Tor-Con is a made up system by the Weather Channel. To be honest with you, Western portions of GA (Central to Northern sections....west of Atlanta) has a good shot to see some strong tornadoes tomorrow evening after 5-6pm. The STP has actually increased over these areas. Remember, values over 2 are considered signficant for tornado development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I just looked at the torcon as well. Ok so I am to assume where I live is in the 4 range, but my county is in a moderate risk for tomorrow. I just have always felt that Haralson county is more north Ga, than central because to me central Ga is in the area where Macon is located since it's pretty much mid state. I guess this is just a wait and see game at this point. I just don't want our area to be caught off guard since the Atlanta market seems to be saying this is not that big of a threat for us as far as tornadoes are concerned, and then we get slammed with tornado warnings. Is it me, or does anyone else around Atlanta feel that our meteorologists here down play a lot of severe weather events? I am a mere 11 miles from the Alabama line right off of 27. Actually I think the moderate risk area splits Haralson County in half. So if you're closer to Bremen you are barely in the slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Eh, Tor-Con is a made up system by the Weather Channel. To be honest with you, Western portions of GA (Central to Northern sections....west of Atlanta) has a good shot to see some strong tornadoes tomorrow evening after 5-6pm. The STP has actually increased over these areas. Remember, values over 2 are considered signficant for tornado development. According to that map, it looks like the Carolina's will have a 2 punch severe weather threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Eh, Tor-Con is a made up system by the Weather Channel. To be honest with you, Western portions of GA (Central to Northern sections....west of Atlanta) has a good shot to see some strong tornadoes tomorrow evening after 5-6pm. The STP has actually increased over these areas. Remember, values over 2 are considered signficant for tornado development. Thank you for posting this, because I have only seen the earlier maps showing the threat areas mainly over AL. I like seeing something for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 On another note, GFS is slowing this system down a bit. Looks like it will push through North Georgia around 2am Thursday morning and will likely be in Eastern GA by 8am. (Not the best times to see significant severe weather) I think NW GA is a hot spot for tornadic activity. It'll be interesting to see what SPC puts out for our area. Wouldn't be shocked if they issue another high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 On another note, GFS is slowing this system down a bit. Looks like it will push through North Georgia around 2am Thursday morning and will likely be in Eastern GA by 8am. (Not the best times to see significant severe weather) I think NW GA is a hot spot for tornadic activity. It'll be interesting to see what SPC puts out for our area. Wouldn't be shocked if they issue another high risk. It should be out of NW and W GA by 2am I believe. The prime time for severe weather tomorrow in NW and W GA will be 2pm to 2am according to FFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It should be out of NW and W GA by 2am I believe. The prime time for severe weather tomorrow in NW and W GA will be 2pm to 2am according to FFC. Not based on the newest model runs that are coming out now. GFS and NAM shows intense convection blowing up around NW GA around 6z Thursday (2am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I am concerned about super cells popping up ahead of the main front tomorrow. Firing up around 5pm would be a worst case scenario for the Atlanta metro area. Both with day time heating, and our horrible traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Speaking of cells popping up. Random storm is developing in Newton and Walton Counties as we speak. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 All of metro Atlanta now under a MDT risk with far NW GA being in a High Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Just as some of us had figured, high risk is now placed further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Just as some of us had figured, high risk is now placed further east. Would not be surprised to see that Moderate Risk pushed further east through the day. We are going to have a good amount of daytime heating here in the Carolina's. What is your take on tomorrow Gaston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Would not be surprised to see that Moderate Risk pushed further east through the day. We are going to have a good amount of daytime heating here in the Carolina's. What is your take on tomorrow Gaston? Check out the blog. I've put down my thoughts regarding the event, and some nice tips on tornado safety. http://gwxmanblog.bl...-up-for_27.html Would love to have some OBS reports posted on the blog. You can put them in the comment box on my latest post or on the chat if you want. Links to pictures or videos you've taken are welcomed folks. EDIT(4:24am): Tornado warnings were issued across parts of eastern MS for northern Union, south central Benton, southwestern Tippah, eastern Chickasaw, Monroe, southern Itawamba, southeastern Lee, southeastern Clay, Lowndes, and southeastern Oktibbeha counties. Strong line of storms continuing to push north and east into southern TN and western AL. Could be a few tornadoes associated with the line as it crosses the MS/AL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Just as some of us had figured, high risk is now placed further east. I'm actually a little surprised that the "high" wasn't more to the west of where it is, or at least extended back west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 GSP issued this in the Hazardous Weather Statement at 5am... THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GAIN THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A MORE SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LINE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MAKE PLANS NOW FOR WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. KEEP AN ALERTING NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE SLEEPING TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 What's entering Alabama is just the first wave. They're expecting the next batch this afternoon and those should be much worse. You can read their discussion here http://www.daculaweather.com/afd_bmx.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Arkansas is ripping them again! http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Everybody stay safe today! I'll be back on around 11:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Tornado Watch for Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Tornado Watch for Georgia YUP! This line is holding together a LOT better than I anticipated. This is going to be interesting to see how this effects the storms later this afternoon. By that I mean if they fire up a little farther to the south than anticipated... but it's a wait and see game now... Time to go alert the people of La Grange during the cut-in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 surveillance vid. of tornado in Miss. http://www.clarionledger.com/videonetwork/919987244001/Tornado-caught-on-surveillance-video that line of thunderstorms is rocking east very fast. Just an hour ago it was coming through Birmingham and now its already in GA. Already a tor. watch in GA and there's several reports of a large tornado in Alabama THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Strong signature with the cell near Scottsboro, AL, with a history of widespread damage reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It was amazing to watch these storms in MS and AL this morning.....an extremely widespread damaging wind event with embedded tornadoes. This area of rain and storms has made it much farther southeast than modeling indicated, so I am curious to see what that does for instability for the second round later today. I am also interested to see if SPC sticks with the 'high' risk with their update here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Strong signature with the cell near Scottsboro, AL, with a history of widespread damage reports. thats the one that has a meso low that began wrapping up southwest of BHM and tracked all the way to northeast Alabama. Its showing some weakening now the last few frames, but for a while there it must have been an incredible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Evidence of rotation on radar in Centre, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It was amazing to watch these storms in MS and AL this morning.....an extremely widespread damaging wind event with embedded tornadoes. This area of rain and storms has made it much farther southeast than modeling indicated, so I am curious to see what that does for instability for the second round later today. I am also interested to see if SPC sticks with the 'high' risk with their update here in a bit. I was thinking the same thing. No model had it this far, it literally rocketed northeast from La/Ark/Miss region just a few hours ago. I think it may actually bring some storms and rain to the western Carolinas by noon or shortly after, unless it totally dissippates by then. Hard to say, but cloud tops and where the cooling is on INF shows not that much decay. One thing I'm watching for us tonight is how quickly the next line develops in the same areas to the west, when this final strong 5H vort rounds the bend in western TN. The models show a strong line forming again, but I think maybe once again, it will race east and northeast, reaching the mtns before midnight and spilling toward Upstate and CLT region right after midnight tonight. That could be a dangerous line similar to the one a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It's amazing that with all the extensive damage in AL, it's going to be much worse this afternoon and evening. Will AL even exist after today ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA CHATTOOGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA * UNTIL 900 AM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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