burkecountync Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The only storm on radar right now in the NC foothills is just to my NW. Just missed me! I've heard a couple rumbles of thunder but no rain. I hope those storms developing tonight will train over me too. I could use the rain. Those storms along the coast have been quite healthy since noon. Lots of needed rainfall falling in the eastern Carolinas. I know what you are saying. No storms yet even close to my area; however, I do believe that heavy rain will fall across the mountains and foothills this evening and tonight. I would not be shocked if some areas pick up 2-4 inches of rain tonight, given the fact that the storms do develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 So, FFC says there will be widespread severe storms and tornadoes tomorrow and SPC has us only a Slight Risk, yet areas all the way from Alabama to Western PA are under a MDT risk. Can someone explain that ? Read this http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Not to tease anyone...but I am seeing good downpours here in north-west NC. Sun comes out after each storm and another one moves in. Hail was reported in north-eastern Wilkes County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Tell that to people in Vilonia, AR. I said in general and your example is poor. That tornado hit at 7:38PM local time, hardly in the middle of the night and actually pretty close to max heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Here is the reason they haven't upgraded any part of our area to a high risk... yet. VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS CYCLOGENESIS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION ...WHICH COULD BE EXTENSIVE AND ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER INDICATIONS ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Near 4 inch hail reported with some of those cells back in AR. Tornado warnings from Sparkman to Star City. Example: Rotating Thunderstorm Cleveland County, AR 69 dBZ Severe Hail: 100% Chance Hail: 100% Chance Max Size: 3.75 in. Echo Top: 45,000 ft. VIL: 79 kg/m² Radar Site: LZK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Not to tease anyone...but I am seeing good downpours here in north-west NC. Sun comes out after each storm and another one moves in. Hail was reported in north-eastern Wilkes County. Cool! It looks like you've got the one that just bypassed me now sitting right on top of you. It appears another cell may be beginning to form in Burke County at the moment, but it also looks to eventually pass just to my NW (I'm talking like 5 miles or so). That one will probably make it up your way too. The "training" has begun. I just hope it can widen in expanse a little and share the rain wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Near 4 inch hail reported with some of those cells back in AR. Tornado warnings from Sparkman to Star City. Absolutely massive storms in S. Arkansas right now, if I lived anywhere near those things, I'd be underground immediately. Jeez....look at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Pea to marble size hail here in Indian Trail, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 lol, do you still think it fizzles over Georgia? btw Night Storms are amazing, the lightning at night is so beautiful. Actually, I'm living around the eastern portions of Georgia. The models still hint at a general weakening, especially since it's moving in after 2am Thursday morning. But yes, this event looks significant, especially over Alabama/Tennessee and NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Man, these storms are REALLY blowing up. 48K ft and 73dBZ on Little Rock and 71 dBZ on Memphis radar, Two TV signatures on the Little Rock radar. http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 What is this looking like for west Ga close to the AL line? WSB just talked about it, and only showed rain tomorrow night. They said between 4pm-midnight for any severe storms and super cells. Technically to me Atlanta is considered N Ga, with Columbus over to Macon being considered central Ga. For some reason when the NWS talks about North Ga, they only think that means areas very close to the state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 What is this looking like for west Ga close to the AL line? WSB just talked about it, and only showed rain tomorrow night. They said between 4pm-midnight for any severe storms and super cells. Technically to me Atlanta is considered N Ga, with Columbus over to Macon being considered central Ga. For some reason when the NWS talks about North Ga, they only think that means areas very close to the state line. If you are in North Georgia, Severe weather is likely. The worse storms will occur across Western Georgia, preferrably around NW GA. (From Atlanta and points to the NW (around Rome). Looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 If you are in North Georgia, Severe weather is likely. The worse storms will occur across Western Georgia, preferrably around NW GA. (From Atlanta and points to the NW (around Rome). Looks nasty. How about areas SW of Atlanta, like around Carrollton ? We are in Central GA so maybe it won't be as bad here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I know this is pretty useless post, but poor Arkansas....roughly 40% of the state is under a Tornado Warning right now. Unbelievable. I don't know if I've ever seen that much of a state under a warning all at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 How about areas SW of Atlanta, like around Carrollton ? We are in Central GA so maybe it won't be as bad here ? Based on what FFC is saying, scattered supercells with all modes of severe is possible, and then scroll-line Wednesday night. They have Carrollton outlined with greatest threat time from 2pm-2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Based on what FFC is saying, scattered supercells with all modes of severe is possible, and then scroll-line Wednesday night. They have Carrollton outlined with greatest threat time from 2pm-2am. Ok thanks. I'm more concerned with those supercells than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I know this is pretty useless post, but poor Arkansas....roughly 40% of the state is under a Tornado Warning right now. Unbelievable. I don't know if I've ever seen that much of a state under a warning all at the same time. Look again....Crazy stuff going on out there! I'm going to be on the look out for a few scattered super cells that will develop near my viewing area. The interesting thing about tomorrow is the first wave moving through tomorrow morning then the second wave bringing the greater threat for severe weather.... It's going to be interesting to see just how far east these storms in the morning make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Big time boomers moving through the Coastal Plain, seeing flashes every minute or so out the rattling window... Watched pulse type cells miss me all day, but finally it looks like we have some appreciable QPF inbound. Been kind of dry here lately, hopefully it puts down, as I am not pinning any hopes on the frontal passage Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 A little thunder on my end with a passing shower. Earlier this same area of showers had a bit of hail, some lightning, and heavy rain through Union county. Live coverage in AR if you want to watch: http://www.wreg.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Holy crap, the Memphis radar is showing 20 mesocyclones and one TVS. Storms hitting 50K ft 72 dBZ now.http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 A buddy of mine is covering a possible tornado about to drop on Fort Smith, AR! Here is the live coverage with rotation seen on skycam: http://www.5newsonline.com/news/5live/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The supercell near Memphis has had a decent longevity. A whole hour now since the tornado had touched down and still holding strong. The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... east central Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas... western Shelby County in southwest Tennessee... * until 715 PM CDT * at 610 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking a tornado near West Memphis... or near Marion... moving east at 20 mph. * Locations in the warning include but are not limited to sunset... West Memphis... downtown Memphis... Frayser... Midtown Memphis and Meeman Shelby Forest State Park. This warning also includes areas near Lake McKellar. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. Take cover now. Stats: Tornadic Thunderstorm Crittenden County, AR 64 dBZ Severe Hail: 90% Chance Hail: 100% Chance Max Size: 1.75 in. Echo Top: 38,000 ft. VIL: 70 kg/m² Radar Site: NQA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I can't even imagine softball size hail. I'm watching the live stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 73 dBZ on Little Rock radar, 13 mesocyclones and 15 storms with severe hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 NWS weather radio transmitters are not working in NW Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Live stream from Memphis with tornado on radar http://www.wmctv.com/category/196691/action-news-5-live-video-coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I can't even imagine softball size hail. I'm watching the live stream. I know right! If you're watching the Fort Smith stream, the guy who held the hail stone is my buddy from college. I'm jealous of their equipment because it not only shows hail but also tornado possibility without showing the storm relative velocity.... so ordinary people are able to understand where the tornado MAY be... Great stuff! Hopefully I won't have to worry about this tomorrow afternoon for our East Alabama counties, but I have a feeling it'll be a LONG day tomorrow! Also, the tornado that is getting close to Memphis is impressive! I know Gaston has been posting things about it and it's just crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Hard to imagine things getting any worse over there, but latest MSD mentions the low-level jet is expected to strengthen greatly over the next couple of hours. SVR CONVECTION...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA FROM ERN OK TO MS RIVER NEAR MEM. WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IN FACT...PRE-STORM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS JUST ABOVE SFC...SUBSTANTIALLY BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH. LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER ERN OK JUST W FSM...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS LAMAR COUNTY TX...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CURVING NEWD OVER NWRN AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL AR. FRONT BECOMES COLD FRONT AGAIN FROM NERN AR NEWD ACROSS SERN MO. THOSE FRONTAL ZONES WILL ACT AS NRN/WRN BOUNDS FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...ALTHOUGH TSTMS TO THEIR N AND W ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO REGION WILL BE IN FAVORABLE ELEVATED SHEAR AND BUOYANCY FOR LARGE HAIL. IN REGIME OF STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SHEAR SE OF FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER AR MAY MIX/ADVECT AWAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT ALSO CAN SUPPLY ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR ABOVE ALREADY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG OVER CONVECTIVELY UNPERTURBED AIR MASS OF CENTRAL/SRN AR...NARROWING TO CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE NEWD TOWARD LOWEST OH VALLEY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG ARE COMMON...WITH SRH FCST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 00Z BENEATH LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SPCWARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADICSUPERCELLS. IN FACT...PRE-STORM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AREEXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT/DESTRUCTIVETORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENSJUST ABOVE SFC...SUBSTANTIALLY BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH. LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS. EDIT You beat me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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