janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 0945 AM TORNADO 5 SE BIRCHWOOD 35.31N 84.93W 04/27/2011 MEIGS TN EMERGENCY MNGR EMA REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON MT ZION RD NEAR GEORGETOWN...SEVERL HOMES DAMAGED SOME POTENTIALLY DESTROYED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 another fatality PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 948 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0654 AM TSTM WND DMG PISGAH 34.68N 85.85W 04/27/2011 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTS OF STUCTURAL DAMAGE...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG A PATH FROM PISGAH TO FLAT ROCK NEAR CR 120. ONE DEATH OCCURRED IN THE PISGAH AREA. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 110kt H5 jet...wow The low level shear is just scary crazy with this serious LLJ coupled with this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 yet another PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 950 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0235 AM TORNADO 5 SSW EUPORA 33.48N 89.31W 04/27/2011 CHOCTAW MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 1 FATAL, 7 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMS 1 FATALITY IN A CAMPER AT A STATE PARK. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA OF CHOCTAW COUNTY NEAR THE BORDER WITH WEBSTER COUNTY. MANY TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS AND ON TOPS OF HOUSES. MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED AND SOME HOMES DAMAGED...ESPECIALLY ALONG HEBRON ROAD. AT LEAST 7 INJURIES REPORTED...AND DAMAGE AND INJURY REPORTS STILL COMING IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 110kt H5 jet...wow Getting even closer to the surface, you're looking at 55 knots at 925 mb this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 994mb sfc low in central AR as of 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 CU building and scattered convection tryin gto get going over LA now..this could be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 TN TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1041 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1037 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR LAWRENCEBURG. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS INTO AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271545Z - 271715Z A LONG LEAD-TIME/LONG DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON...MOST CERTAIN ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY RELATIVELY QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM LA INTO MS/AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. THIS IS THE CASE NOT ONLY FOR IN THE VICINITY OF EARLY MORNING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW ACROSS MS/AL...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE EACH INCREASED 8-12F OVER THE PAST 2 HR...BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN APPARENT WAVE-LIKE FEATURE SPREADING EASTWARD CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/LA AS A CU FIELD OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO INCREASE/MATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST LA. AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LATER TODAY...A VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 1037 AM TORNADO 6 S LAWRENCEBURG 35.16N 87.34W 04/27/2011 LAWRENCE TN TRAINED SPOTTER TORNADO WITH DEBRIS WITNESSED BY MULTIPLE SPOTTERS IN LEOMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Over eastern OH we have a strong S/SSE surface flow and the atmosphere is steadily further destabilizing with the RUC showing SBCAPE currently about 500-1000+. Cells ahead of the cold pool have trended more discrete. Shear profiles should be able to support supercells although with a storm motion progged to the NNE, better inflow potential probably won't be realized. I think, over the next few hours, there is the potential for isolated tornadoes, but more so a hail and wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... UPDATE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY. A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW HRS. EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12) ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Seeing how things have initiated this morning, it's clear today's outbreak will be a far cry from the Super Outbreak of 1974...as the vast majority of posters suspected. Still looks like it should be the most significant outbreak in quite awhile, though, especially counting yesterday/last night's tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Possible tornado in Perrysburg, OH (just south of Toledo) at 11:30 AM. Some damage to a trailer park and reports of a funnel cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... UPDATE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY. A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW HRS. EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12) ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH. Those parameters are insane. Sounds like a full fledged armageddon. A violent possible. It sounds more like multiple strong/violent EF3-EF4 tornadoes possible and I would not rule out an EF5 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Seeing how things have initiated this morning, it's clear today's outbreak will be a far cry from the Super Outbreak of 1974...as the vast majority of posters suspected. if you say so already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too the outbreak continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 if you say so already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too the outbreak continues Yeah, doesn't make sense to declare a bust at 12:15 PM EDT / 11:15 AM CDT. Lots of day left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 95/90 tor probs... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229...WW 230...WW 231... DISCUSSION...A VERY VOLATILE SETUP IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF MS LATER TODAY AS A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNS INTO AN AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHEAST LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL START BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS WHERE DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. ALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT STRONG/VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 if you say so already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too the outbreak continues Indeed. But this event will not cover the scope that 1974 did. We just aren't going to see lots of long-track, violent twisters from AL all the way up to MI like the Super Outbreak did. Everything points to this being a more southern-oriented event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yeah, doesn't make sense to declare a bust at 12:15 PM EDT / 11:15 AM CDT. Lots of day left. Who declared a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yeah, doesn't make sense to declare a bust at 12:15 PM EDT / 11:15 AM CDT. Lots of day left. Saying this won't match the 1974 Superoutbreak isn't declaring a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yeah, doesn't make sense to declare a bust at 12:15 PM EDT / 11:15 AM CDT. Lots of day left. Well no one with any credibility forecast anything to 1974's level, so technically there can be no bust on something not forecast. And I don't think he's declaring bust on the event, but just the comparison to 1974 by a couple of posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Sweet gravity wave field over the Gulf: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Well no one with any credibility forecast anything to 1974's level, so technically there can be no bust on something not forecast. And I don't think he's declaring bust on the event, but just the comparison to 1974 by a couple of posters. Yeah...and if you look at that big MCS ongoing in TN/KY, that will probably limit the potential in a lot of areas for awhile. Didn't see that in 1974. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Seeing how things have initiated this morning, it's clear today's outbreak will be a far cry from the Super Outbreak of 1974...as the vast majority of posters suspected. Still looks like it should be the most significant outbreak in quite awhile, though, especially counting yesterday/last night's tornados. Hopefully we dont get fatalities like then. But like I said even if we even a third or a quarter of the strong/violent EF3+ tornadoes like we did in the Superoutbreak of 1974 it could be quite catastrophic. 1974 had 35 F3's, 24 F4's, and 6 F5's. Imagine getting 8-12 EF3 tornadoes, 5-8 violent EF4 tornadoes, and 1-2 violent EF5 tornadoes today. IMO that could be a major disaster waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 hello there 45% tor contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Hopefully we dont get fatalities like then. But like I said even if we even a third or a quarter of the strong/violent EF3+ tornadoes like we did in the Superoutbreak of 1974 it could be quite catastrophic. 1974 had 35 F3's, 24 F4's, and 6 F5's. Imagine getting 8-12 EF3 tornadoes, 5-8 violent EF4 tornadoes, and 1-2 violent EF5 tornadoes today. IMO that could be a major disaster waiting to happen. I doubt if those tornadoes were rated today they would be rated that high(at least some of them since they tend to be conservative these days) anyway we can save that debate for a slow winter day. Also no outbreak is the same. This one will cover from TX all the way into GA maybe and north into TN..with scattered reports likley in the OH valley and Northeast for those of you who missed it go back and look at the radar at 2-3am over MS last night......wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 hello there 45% tor contour Wow... only second time I recall seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Another fatality in St. Clair County from (what else?) tree falling on mobile home, per LSR's. That makes it 5 from overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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