Historic Tornado Outbreak April 27, 2011

[Chicago Storm]

Just catching up on the thread after having to step out several hours ago...

Just an amazing event, that's all I can say.

[mempho]

The reports coming out almost make you wonder what more could have been done..... I mean yes these were insanely strong storms, but you wonder how many of those deaths were attributed to people in the center of their houses/basements, I mean I hope ppl weren't killed trying to video these storms or tape them or didn't take the warnings seriously. Really nothing "popped up" but it is also what you hear that it's just a cultural issue down there, and also the sirens being damaged/out from the previous night. It certainly is going to be an interesting sociological study as well as what can be found from the meteorology side. It wasn't really that huge of an area affected and it certainly wasn't a suprise I mean at the end of the day you can warn millions of people and no matter what you do not every single one of those people will listen.

The warning system is not designed to help people in tornadoes as strong as we witnessed today. The advice is go to the basement (we don't have basements in the southeast b/c of the water table) or go to an interior room on the lowest floor.

That's great advice for most situations.

It's terrible advice for a long-track EF-4 or EF-5. The vast majority of the people took the "standard advice" and those in the path died. People are not standing outside and ignoring these things. Almost everyone I know pays close attention.

The old advice..."get in your car and get the heck outta the way"....it contradicts the new advice that has been well engrained. Go back and look at some of the footage today. Today, the best advice was the old advice. Get in the car and take your chances. It's easy in the Midwest...I've lived there. Everyone has basements and storm cellars.

What sort of irks me a little bit is that we have so, so many people who trust the authorities and follow the standard advice against their own gut feeling and that standard advice is just horrible if you're in the path of a storm that will clean the foundation of the home.

Someone said it earlier...the modern warning system saves many lives in the smaller tornadoes but it is costing lives in these big ones. People think they'll be OK in their bathtub on the first floor of their home when they're in the path of an EF-5. Personally, I think you should run like hell if you don't have an underground shelter. Run and don't look back. There's nowhere you can reasonably be safe in "riding out" tornadoes like this.

If you look at most of the damage photos, you're going to see that the places where most people were killed were places that have no business being used as shelter from a powerful, long-track wedge tornado. The conventional wisdom is usually right but it is occasionally horribly, horribly wrong. It bothers me to see educated mets go on TV and repeat the mantra to stay in an interior room of their wood-frame home while looking at something that powerful. It's time to panic. It's time to run like hell.

People did what they were told and huddled in their homes and died when they could've literally run to relative safety. They had time, but doing what they were told cost them their lives.

[cmichweather]

The warning system is not designed to help people in tornadoes as strong as we witnessed today. The advice is go to the basement (we don't have basements in the southeast b/c of the water table) or go to an interior room on the lowest floor.

That's great advice for most situations.

It's terrible advice for a long-track EF-4 or EF-5. The vast majority of the people took the "standard advice" and those in the path died. People are not standing outside and ignoring these things. Almost everyone I know pays close attention.

The old advice..."get in your car and get the heck outta the way"....it contradicts the new advice that has been well engrained. Go back and look at some of the footage today. Today, the best advice was the old advice. Get in the car and take your chances. It's easy in the Midwest...I've lived there. Everyone has basements and storm cellars.

What sort of irks me a little bit is that we have so, so many people who trust the authorities and follow the standard advice against their own gut feeling and that standard advice is just horrible if you're in the path of a storm that will clean the foundation of the home.

Someone said it earlier...the modern warning system saves many lives in the smaller tornadoes but it is costing lives in these big ones. People think they'll be OK in their bathtub on the first floor of their home when they're in the path of an EF-5. Personally, I think you should run like hell if you don't have an underground shelter. Run and don't look back. There's nowhere you can reasonably be safe in "riding out" tornadoes like this.

If you look at most of the damage photos, you're going to see that the places where most people were killed were places that have no business being used as shelter from a powerful, long-track wedge tornado. The conventional wisdom is usually right but it is occasionally horribly, horribly wrong. It bothers me to see educated mets go on TV and repeat the mantra to stay in an interior room of their wood-frame home while looking at something that powerful. It's time to panic. It's time to run like hell.

People did what they were told and huddled in their homes and died when they could've literally run to relative safety. They had time, but doing what they were told cost them their lives.

You also have the issue of how many people were saved by staying at home and in the safest areas of their homes imagine if a decent sized city had all picked up and left and hit the highways and the storm tracked along that highway. You could imagine what a 1/2 mile wide to 1 mile tornado that tracked along a highway of congested bumper to bumper traffic would have done. It's a lose lose situation.

[Jim Marusak]

05Z analysis of this monster system. double-barrel low. barrel 1 in northeastern Ontario near Earlton (CYXR) 992 hPa. Barrel #2, between Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Dayton with an estimated central pressure near 990 hPa if not 989 hPa. I've seen some strong single lows with pressures like this in the past, and they caused enough damage. But a double-barrel like this at the end of April, we're probably lucky this wasn't worse, as bad as this system was. Btw, I haven't been keeping track of all of the alerts and such in the northern end, except for my folks in northeastern PA. Has there been any severe t-storm warnings in Ontario or western Quebec with this, on top of all the chaos down here?

[thewxmann]

Normally I'd agree, mempho - and this advice would work well if you lived somewhere like Picher where the population is relatively low and the tornado very visible.

But we're talking about a highly populated Southeastern U.S. with trees and (in some cases) rain-wrapped tornadoes. Imagine if all of Bham evacuated. It was evident to us that the storm would pass to the north of downtown, but the average layman will just run like hell (e.g. the Rita evacuation). If mass panic had occurred, the streets would be completely clogged and the tornado would have barreled through those vehicles stuck in the road and killed hundreds. Many would have driven right into the tornado's path.

The best advice: if you live in a mobile home and a setup like this occurs, visit a friend's permanent home the next day. You have a 50% chance of surviving a violent tornado in a permanent home. You have a 0.1% chance in a mobile home.

But otherwise, you just have to accept that a setup like this will kill a lot of people. There's not much you can do about it but hope and pray.

I believe there's a paper that talks about population increases and its effect on tornado fatalities. The general idea is that we've passed the global minimum in tornado fatalities/year. Warnings and education can only do so much... the rest is luck. And as population increases, the dice becomes increasingly unfavorable. More homes will be hit, and more people will be killed. After today, the tornado death toll this year will surpass 100 for the second time in 5 years. Before this timeframe, 1998 was the last year in which over 100 people were killed. But you have to go all the way to the 1970's to get to the one before that (lemme check on that though).

EDIT: actually it was 1984, and prior to that 1974.

[DBriedis]

There were some in between Toronto and Ottawa, including damage reports from either Severe TStorms or possible tornadoes.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=risk_for_thunderstorms_linge_260411?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories

[baroclinic_instability]

An MCD I will never forget just as this was getting going.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS/AL INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHWEST GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...235... VALID 271956Z - 272200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232...235...CONTINUES. PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES 232/235 CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AS A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE/RISK. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MS/AL...WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TN/NORTHWEST GA ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...REASONABLY SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE...IMPLY THAT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN BROKEN NNE-SSW ORIENTED CORRIDORS OF SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AHEAD /EAST/ OF MORE STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE GENERALLY NEARING I-55 IN MS. THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON AMID NEAR 70F/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...REFERENCE SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM JACKSON MS/BIRMINGHAM AL...WITH A WIDE/HIGHLY SHEARED MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF A MODIFYING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /NOW AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS. EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...VIA LONG/CURVING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AMID 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2 OR GREATER /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN MS AND AL BOUNDARY/. ..GUYER.. 04/27/2011

[Hoosier]

FYI, I posted a general thread in the main forum.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17825-april-27-2011-tornado-outbreak/

[MJW155]

Find a sturdy shelter that can take an EF-5

Drive away. It worked during the Picher, OK EF4 tornado.

I don't think it's that simple. Especially in a city like Birmingham; not everyone has a car. Besides, if everyone left in a car at the same time, you create a traffic jam while an EF-5 tornado is bearing down on you. It might work in some isolated place in OK, but not east of the Mississippi.

And what sturdy shelter can you trust in an EF-5 tornado assuming you are not in the basement?

[mempho]

You also have the issue of how many people were saved by staying at home and in the safest areas of their homes imagine if a decent sized city had all picked up and left and hit the highways and the storm tracked along that highway. You could imagine what a 1/2 mile wide to 1 mile tornado that tracked along a highway of congested bumper to bumper traffic would have done. It's a lose lose situation.

Just telling you that there's not any cultural indifference or anything. Most of the people I know are scared to death when one of these things is close by. Everyone I know finds out where the polygon is when the warning comes out. They all take shelter when it's prudent.

It's just the way it is here that we don't have anywhere to go and, in some storms, the only safe thing is attempting to leave. People are pretty smart in this area of the country. They know about hook echos, rotation, etc. We are probably subjected to 20 hours or so of tornado education via wall-to-wall primetime coverage every year via our local news people. Seriously, though, people don't really understand that some of these just kill everyone in their path. I don't know what you exactly do about the situation, but it doesn't feel right to just tell people to "stay put and get in the bathroom" while they're in the path of such a tornado. I don't think that's saving as many people as you can.

I don't know what the solution is but there has to be something better than me sitting at a computer and thinking about all those people between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham that are just huddled in a bathroom and awaiting their death. It doesn't seem right to me. That thing was a monster and we're going to let people just sit in front of it when we have a very good idea of where it's going and it is very apparent that we have a long-track on our hands. There are a lot of people who did what they were told and waited on it to hit them and now they're dead. I don't know how to work the solution just yet, but it's food for thought.

[Hoosier]

144 (time-sensitive)

[SluggerWx]

Is the cell near Union, West Virginia still producing (question 1)?

QUESTION 2: IS THIS THE SAME CELL THAT HIT CATOOSA, GA???

What's the longest track on record? This would double it, I'm thinking?

Or, do we think the Tusc, Birm, Rome, Jasper (now into VA) cell retained it's track?

Just an observation.

[mempho]

Normally I'd agree, mempho - and this advice would work well if you lived somewhere like Picher where the population is relatively low and the tornado very visible.

But we're talking about a highly populated Southeastern U.S. with trees and (in some cases) rain-wrapped tornadoes. Imagine if all of Bham evacuated. It was evident to us that the storm would pass to the north of downtown, but the average layman will just run like hell (e.g. the Rita evacuation). If mass panic had occurred, the streets would be completely clogged and the tornado would have barreled through those vehicles stuck in the road and killed hundreds. Many would have driven right into the tornado's path.

The best advice: if you live in a mobile home and a setup like this occurs, visit a friend's permanent home the next day. You have a 50% chance of surviving a violent tornado in a permanent home. You have a 0.1% chance in a mobile home.

But otherwise, you just have to accept that a setup like this will kill a lot of people. There's not much you can do about it but hope and pray.

I believe there's a paper that talks about population increases and its effect on tornado fatalities. The general idea is that we've passed the global minimum in tornado fatalities/year. Warnings and education can only do so much... the rest is luck. And as population increases, the dice becomes increasingly unfavorable. More homes will be hit, and more people will be killed. After today, the tornado death toll this year will surpass 100 for the second time in 5 years. Before this timeframe, 1998 was the last year in which over 100 people were killed. But you have to go all the way to the 1970's to get to the one before that (lemme check on that though).

EDIT: actually it was 1984, and prior to that 1974.

I understand what you're saying. I do. I'm not trying to nitpick. I can tell you that I would not be found anywhere near the north side of Birmingham today if I had lived/worked in that area. I would've found a way out. There just has to be something better. I mean, we can pretty well narrow down the potential path of a tornado down to the individual homes with several minutes to go on one of these. Our technology is great. We had the path narrowed down in Birmingham within a few miles with 40 minutes of lead time today. Yet, we're telling people to just sit there? It doesn't seem right and I understand the logistical problems but I think people deserve to know that there is a very good chance if that they will be dead in 20 minutes if they just sit there. I just believe that they deserve a chance to figure out how to get to safety. People are uncanny at surviving. I think lives would've been saved if they just said "get out of this path any way you can." I have no doubt most people would've figured out some way to do just that.

[aslkahuna]

Mempho, the problem you noted and has been identified as a major concern. There IS a solution however it's one not overly feasible during the current economy. The's the construction of a special Safe Room that is properly anchored and heavily reinforced concrete (not blocks but solid concrete. In essence a mini blockhouse. Properly designed and built they can withstand tornadoes of high EF intensity. But they remain few and far between these days.

Steve

[thewxmann]

I understand what you're saying. I do. I'm not trying to nitpick. I can tell you that I would not be found anywhere near the north side of Birmingham today if I had lived/worked in that area. I would've found a way out. There just has to be something better. I mean, we can pretty well narrow down the potential path of a tornado down to the individual homes with several minutes to go on one of these. Our technology is great. We had the path narrowed down in Birmingham within a few miles with 40 minutes of lead time today. Yet, we're telling people to just sit there? It doesn't seem right and I understand the logistical problems but I think people deserve to know that there is a very good chance if that they will be dead in 20 minutes if they just sit there. I just believe that they deserve a chance to figure out how to get to safety. People are uncanny at surviving. I think lives would've been saved if they just said "get out of this path any way you can." I have no doubt most people would've figured out some way to do just that.

Unfortunately, even though the technology today is great, it is not good enough to predict where a tornado will be "down to individual homes" within 10 minutes, much less 20. Tornadoes are fickle and capriciously controlled by the mesos they are spawned from.

[mempho]

Mempho, the problem you noted and has been identified as a major concern. There IS a solution however it's one not overly feasible during the current economy. The's the construction of a special Safe Room that is properly anchored and heavily reinforced concrete (not blocks but solid concrete. In essence a mini blockhouse. Properly designed and built they can withstand tornadoes of high EF intensity. But they remain few and far between these days.

Steve

Well, I told my boss this afternoon and he got on the phone with one of our largest clients and we got people out of town and I think they are still alive. I told my boss to take a hard look at the live footage pouring in and he looked at it and knew there was very little chance of survival by staying there. We were looking at the live coverage and the radar presentation. He was on the phone and those people were not in the path when it came through and won't be counted in the death toll. I didn't here anyone broadcasting that, though. That's the only advice I was comfortable giving at the time. We were pulling up google maps for navigation. I think that was just the right thing to do today.

[JoMo]

I don't think it's that simple. Especially in a city like Birmingham; not everyone has a car. Besides, if everyone left in a car at the same time, you create a traffic jam while an EF-5 tornado is bearing down on you. It might work in some isolated place in OK, but not east of the Mississippi.

And what sturdy shelter can you trust in an EF-5 tornado assuming you are not in the basement?

You could always get a safe room. However, they are pretty expensive and probably not feasible for a lot of the homes in the southeast due to the cost.

http://www.missouristormshelters.com/

[My Weather Today]

WAAO radio in Andalusia AL is reporting

https://www.facebook...AO/230891976841

Has anyone confirmed this report yet? This clearly contradicts the official report that's out now.

[mnchaser]

Deaths were going to happen with this event no matter what, this wasn't your typical tornado outbreak. I've been chasing for nearly ten years and looking at the speed and coverage of these supercells, I wouldn't want to have anything to do with chasing in that area yesterday.

Looking at all the technical data on radar is one thing and its easy to say why didn't these people just leave town? I don't know how many people have actually seen violent tornadoes in their life on here..But they are unpredictable in the field, radar might show one thing. But when your actually face to face with one it changes within seconds.

For example, the tornado in my avatar is one I caught back in August 24th 2006 in MN. It was an EF-3 multi-vortex that grew to 3/4 of a mile wide within 5 minutes or if not less.

Tornado deaths are unfortunate, but its mother nature and its going to happen. You just have to respect that.

[thewxmann]

Death toll now up to 83, 61 in AL alone:

http://news.yahoo.co..._severe_weather

Note that this does NOT include the additional deaths indicated in the MS LSR's, and several unconfirmed TN fatalities. When all is set and done the death toll will likely top out above 100.

To put this in perspective, the last time a tornado outbreak killed over 100 people was 4/3/74.

[SluggerWx]

Death toll now up to 83, 61 in AL alone:

http://news.yahoo.co..._severe_weather

Note that this does NOT include the additional deaths indicated in the MS LSR's, and several unconfirmed TN fatalities. When all is set and done the death toll will likely top out above 100.

To put this in perspective, the last time a tornado outbreak killed over 100 people was 4/3/74.

All - Georgia usually delays their reports somewhat... You're going to see a significant number of tornadoes 20-40 added to these totals.

I assume we'll also see the same case with fatalities.

I will go to sleep now and pray I'm wrong...unfortunately scanner radio reports this evening over GA tell me I have a lot of praying to go do.

[blackjack123]

Death toll now up to 83, 61 in AL alone:

http://news.yahoo.co..._severe_weather

Note that this does NOT include the additional deaths indicated in the MS LSR's, and several unconfirmed TN fatalities. When all is set and done the death toll will likely top out above 100.

To put this in perspective, the last time a tornado outbreak killed over 100 people was 4/3/74.

It will surpass even the May 31, 1985 tornado outbreak which killed 88 people in the US and Ontario.

[HurricaneJosh]

The outbreak is at the top of the news in Europe this morning-- not just in London, but even in Prague. Below is one of the main dailies here. The headline reads, "Storms and tornadoes ravage three states in the USA and kill 72 people".

[jcwxguy]

not often you see over seas report on storms here in the us.. least not to my knowledge

[HurricaneJosh]

not often you see over seas report on storms here in the us.. least not to my knowledge

They do report on the big events-- like when a major hurricane hits or when there's a tornado outbreak-- but it's unusual for a USA storm to be the top story. Look at the BBC right now-- it is the banner headline item: http://www.bbc.co.uk.

[baroclinic_instability]

The outbreak is at the top of the news in Europe this morning-- not just in London, but even in Prague. Below is one of the main dailies here. The headline reads, "Storms and tornadoes ravage three states in the USA and kill 72 people".

Wow amazing that made front page news overseas. I am still in awe of this event myself.

[baroclinic_instability]

Shows how pathetic news is here in the US. BBC and and other European news sites have their front page news stories about this event. Here--CNN has the Obama birth certificate/Donald Trump crap as the front page news. What a joke.

[blackjack123]

Because its that mighty dollar and media scandals is more important to them people rather than lives taken, injuries, and property destruction from this tornado outbreak.

[blackjack123]

Shows how pathetic news is here in the US. BBC and and other European news sites have their front page news stories about this event. Here--CNN has the Obama birth certificate/Donald Trump crap as the front page news. What a joke.

Yep it is all a big joke just like you said and I posted it in the post above this one.

[HurricaneJosh]

Shows how pathetic news is here in the US. BBC and and other European news sites have their front page news stories about this event. Here--CNN has the Obama birth certificate/Donald Trump crap as the front page news. What a joke.

Because its that mighty dollar and media scandals is more important to them people rather than lives taken, injuries, and property destruction from this tornado outbreak.

Yep it is all a big joke just like you said and I posted it in the post above this one.

The NYT has it as the top, front-page story, as does the LA Times, if that's any comfort.