janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 hello there 45% tor contour i wonder what they need to get a red becuase these are the best parameters i have ever seen? I see they epanded the nMOD risk more north too with hatched tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 hello there 45% tor contour have to give props to Fred for calling this, him and I were talking last night on fb and mentioned he thought SPC might do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 i wonder what they need to get a red becuase these are the best parameters i have ever seen? I see they epanded the nMOD risk more north too with hatched tornado Red's been issued once before, on 4/7/06. They will issue the red if multiple tornadoes have been dropped down and are dropping down at 20Z. Prolly won't issue it before hand though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Hopefully we dont get fatalities like then. But like I said even if we even a third or a quarter of the strong/violent EF3+ tornadoes like we did in the Superoutbreak of 1974 it could be quite catastrophic. 1974 had 35 F3's, 24 F4's, and 6 F5's. Imagine getting 8-12 EF3 tornadoes, 5-8 violent EF4 tornadoes, and 1-2 violent EF5 tornadoes today. IMO that could be a major disaster waiting to happen. Even if we had the same number of tornadoes and tornado strengths, and even given the population growth and sprawl that has happened since 1974, I do not think we would see the same number of fatalities, and probably not the same number of serious injuries. The warning and detection is light years ahead of what it was then, and medical advances, better emergency first response, emergency treatment, etc. would limit the number of fatalities-some of the people who died then would have survived with faster and better treatment available today. Also with the mass media we have today and instant communications with various devices(cell phones, computers, etc) more people would be aware of what is going on, and be able to take some kind of measures to protect themselves and get to some kind of shelter. *The only exception to this I believe would be a worst case scenario thing, with a strong tornado striking a sporting or entertainment venue with thousands of people who are simply unable to get to appropriate shelter in time, and with a catastrophic structural failure like in a large arena, auditorium, concert hall, etc. The damage totals could very easily be greater given urban/suburban sprawl, overall population growth, and simply more developed land to be hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 yikes ..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL TN AND GA...... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL...TN...KY...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC...NRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...CNTRL TO SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES... ...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY... ..TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND SRN OH VALLEY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS TODAY AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SFC... A LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NNEWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY ORGANIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY. CONCERNING THE CURRENT SETUP...A LARGE MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE INTO ERN TN AND NW GA BY 21Z. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NEWD INTO THE HIGH RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCS EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IMPROVES...THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE NOSE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CREATE LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM ERN MS AND NCNTRL AL NWD INTO SRN TN. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM COLUMBUS MS EWD TO BIRMINGHAM AND HUNTSVILLE AL. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ONGOING MCS WHERE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE IN ERN MS AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED. A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY A VIOLENT TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED A 45 PERCENT SIG-TOR AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN WCNTRL KY...THE ONGOING MCS IS HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NRN LA AND SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL KY BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW AR AND SRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOIST AXIS TO BE LOCATED FROM WEST OF NASHVILLE NEWD TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WHERE NUMEROUS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES EVEN IF DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS GREAT AS IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THE MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AS A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THIS EVENING...A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE CONGEALS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS DEVELOP. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST AS FAR EAST AS WRN VA ...WRN NC AND WRN SC DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN A LARGE MCS MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SHIFT SWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO NRN GA WHERE THE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE. ..CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE JET AXIS...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING SWD INTO FAR WRN SC AROUND 06Z. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NY...PA...VA...NC AND SC WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS VA AND WRN CAROLINAS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z. ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 lol it just had to be Broyles. Not criticizing by any means, as I would've done the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Red's been issued once before, on 4/7/06. They will issue the red if multiple tornadoes have been dropped down and are dropping down at 20Z. Prolly won't issue it before hand though. Right. I imagine they'd never roll out the 60% contour until stuff was already ongoing, which is most likely in a 20Z outlook. 45% is pretty dang stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1130 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL NOON CDT * AT 1130 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. ALC083-089-103-271700- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-110427T1700Z/ MORGAN AL-LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL- 1137 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES... AT 1137 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLE MINA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Huntsville metro BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1141 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 1215 PM CDT * AT 1141 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR CAPSHAW...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE... HUNTSVILLE. NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 hodograph at 20z for northern AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Even if we had the same number of tornadoes and tornado strengths, and even given the population growth and sprawl that has happened since 1974, I do not think we would see the same number of fatalities, and probably not the same number of serious injuries. The warning and detection is light years ahead of what it was then, and medical advances, better emergency first response, emergency treatment, etc. would limit the number of fatalities-some of the people who died then would have survived with faster and better treatment available today. Also with the mass media we have today and instant communications with various devices(cell phones, computers, etc) more people would be aware of what is going on, and be able to take some kind of measures to protect themselves and get to some kind of shelter. *The only exception to this I believe would be a worst case scenario thing, with a strong tornado striking a sporting or entertainment venue with thousands of people who are simply unable to get to appropriate shelter in time, and with a catastrophic structural failure like in a large arena, auditorium, concert hall, etc. The damage totals could very easily be greater given urban/suburban sprawl, overall population growth, and simply more developed land to be hit Yeah a lot of things have changed since 1974 but like you said a EF3+(150+mph winds ) hitting a sports arena or auditorium packed with tens of thousands of people without getting to shelter on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Even if we had the same number of tornadoes and tornado strengths, and even given the population growth and sprawl that has happened since 1974, I do not think we would see the same number of fatalities, and probably not the same number of serious injuries. The warning and detection is light years ahead of what it was then, and medical advances, better emergency first response, emergency treatment, etc. would limit the number of fatalities-some of the people who died then would have survived with faster and better treatment available today. Also with the mass media we have today and instant communications with various devices(cell phones, computers, etc) more people would be aware of what is going on, and be able to take some kind of measures to protect themselves and get to some kind of shelter. *The only exception to this I believe would be a worst case scenario thing, with a strong tornado striking a sporting or entertainment venue with thousands of people who are simply unable to get to appropriate shelter in time, and with a catastrophic structural failure like in a large arena, auditorium, concert hall, etc. The damage totals could very easily be greater given urban/suburban sprawl, overall population growth, and simply more developed land to be hit Exactly. It's this kind of catastrophe we have been able to avoid thus far, and hopefully that luck will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 hodograph at 20z for northern AL That's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Today's jet structure/mid-upper level winds are just...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 That's insane. so is this.. 15 EHI values? good lord.. and this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 some more suspect storm reports from this morning for BHM metro' 0507 AM TSTM WND DMG BERRY 33.66N 87.61W 04/27/2011 FAYETTE AL EMERGENCY MNGR NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE INCLUDING THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. 30 TO 40 STRUCTURES DAMAGE. MAINLY ROOF DAMAGE. AT LEASE 2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED. NO INJURIES. 0525 AM TSTM WND DMG COALING 33.16N 87.34W 04/27/2011 TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR NUMEROUS TREES AND STRUCTURES DAMAGED IN THE COALING AREA. AT LEAST 30 HOME DAMAGED, 15 OF THOSE HEAVILY DAMAGED AND POTENTIALLY UNINHABITABLE. SEVERAL INJURIES BUT NO DETAILS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 *The only exception to this I believe would be a worst case scenario thing, with a strong tornado striking a sporting or entertainment venue with thousands of people who are simply unable to get to appropriate shelter in time, and with a catastrophic structural failure like in a large arena, auditorium, concert hall, etc. This is the nightmare scenario among NWS/emergency managers and is probably how we will get our next large casualty tornado (say 30+ fatalities). Well, either that or a violent tornado tracking through the heart of a major city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 There are many people without power over MS and AL still and a EOC tower got blown down too..no way to warn..I'm sure some tornado sirens may be out too stroms along the mS river are on a confluent zone where SW winds hit SE winds ....behind it still warm and humid ahaed of the front...so as usual a line may form along the front with tornadic supoercells well in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Cell currently WNW of Greenwood, MS is probably our first long-track tornado threat from the new cluster of development. Rotation appears to be tightening quickly. Greenwood sfc ob is at 81/72 right now, and this warm/moist air is surging northward in the wake of prior convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 offices are not going to mess around today, warning way out ahead of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Serious situation unfolding and what little I know I can tell by everybodys posts. How much more curved could that get? I dont know exactly what that means but that is what I call curved. You need to cool it with these types of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 There are many people without power over MS and AL still and a EOC tower got blown down too..no way to warn..I'm sure some tornado sirens may be out too stroms along the mS river are on a confluent zone where SW winds hit SE winds ....behind it still warm and humid ahaed of the front...so as usual a line may form along the front with tornadic supoercells well in advance Yeah, far western TN and northern MS should really be a hot zone over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Cell currently WNW of Greenwood, MS is probably our first long-track tornado threat from the new cluster of development. Rotation appears to be tightening quickly. Greenwood sfc ob is at 81/72 right now, and this warm/moist air is surging northward in the wake of prior convection. What scares me is that those two cells there (the northern one is strengthening) are just south of the big MCS this morning. God only knows what boundaries may be in place there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Also some serious discrete cells appear to be firing up in northern AR now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Also some serious discrete cells appear to be firing up in northern AR now... was just looking at those.may be "cold core" low top mini Sups temp/dew 62/58 while 500mb -18ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 getting a big time core now on the cell north of Cleveland, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 HP supercells today? Airmass is pretty moist...PWATs are 1.4-1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This is the nightmare scenario among NWS/emergency managers and is probably how we will get our next large casualty tornado (say 30+ fatalities). Well, either that or a violent tornado tracking through the heart of a major city. Also you could have a violent tornado tracking right along a suburban freeway packed with cars at rush hour, or a violent tornado hitting an amusement park like Cedar Point, Kings Island, or on a smaller scale, one hitting a large nursing home or a major hospital. Even a very large suburban corporate office park getting hit by a violent tornado could cause more than 30 fatalities..if you think of a Xenia or a Jarrell or Bridge Creek type of tornado particularly. One of these things happening is just a matter of time. I certainly hope nothing like this happens today in the South. It is bad enough with the large semi-suburban/rural population that you find there. And all of those mobile homes in parks and dotted about the rural areas and small towns do not help either. I fear for people living in mobile homes, as (due to economic necessity right now) I live in one myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Another PDS Tornado Watch is on the way for Mid TN and AL. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0626.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 BWER and strong couplet near Water Valley, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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