Historic Tornado Outbreak April 27, 2011

[blackjack123]

I know very much next to nothing when forecasting tornado outbreaks but fomr what I have heard it sounds extremely scary. There could be as many tornadoes as the Superoutbreak of 1974 but I dont think there will be as many strong/Violent EF3+ tornadoes. The Superoutbreak had 35 F3's, 24 F4's and 6 F5's. Even if we had a third of these strong/violent type of tornadoes it would be catastrophic, 12 EF3's 8 EF4's and 2 EF5's. The fatality rate could be very from having just that many strong/violent tornadoes and considering the population of the US probably has well overy 100,000,000 people increase since 1974.

[nwohweather]

Hatched area all the way up to Toledo? I've been so focused on today I really have not checked out Wednesday but are they expecting a big tornado threat all the way up here?

[wxmeddler]

let's take a guess of how many storm reports there will be in the next 24 hours. To compare there was 148 tornadoes in 24 hours with 1974. That equates to about 400-600 tornado reports today.

I'm going to go with 210 tornado reports and 1460 other severe reports for a total of 1670 hail/wind/tor. reports.

[Chinook]

How does this compare to 1974? The general feeling I'm getting from reading this board and other sources on the web is that this is pretty high on the "Need to change pants" scale, but I'm no expert by any measure.

Synoptically it has some similarities. Tomorrow, two low pressures (surface) will exist. In 1974, there was one main low pressure.

Check the 500mb chart of the morning and evening of April 3, 1974. There are some similarities to tomorrow's 500mb chart. Nobody can know for certain what type of tornado destruction will happen, but no outbreak brought about more destruction than the Super Outbreak. It's unlikely that April 27, 2011 will go down as the worst of the worst tornado outbreaks.

[Xenia74]

Synoptically it has some similarities. Tomorrow, two low pressures (surface) will exist. In 1974, there was one main low pressure.

Check the 500mb chart of the morning and evening of April 3, 1974. There are some similarities to tomorrow's 500mb chart. Nobody can know for certain what type of tornado destruction will happen, but no outbreak brought about more destruction than the Super Outbreak. It's unlikely that April 27, 2011 will go down as the worst of the worst tornado outbreaks.

So what are you basing your opinion on??? All the numbers are through the roof..There are two lows but the second low is forecast to be 980mb which is lower than the superstorm in 1974. I understand and respect the 74 outbreak but just looking at it from a numbers stand point there is nothing I have seen to back up your opinion. Are you just saying this cause of how high the bar was set with the 74 outbreak??

[csnavywx]

So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?

[Hoosier]

The surface low was gradually filling in that case. This time we will have a deepening surface low. As others have said, there are some similarities on the larger scale and the threat area is quite similar to 1974. Other than that, I'd be really hesitant to say that this will be as bad as that...you'd be wrong at least 999 times out of 1000. It's sorta one of those things that you just have to let play out.

[Hoosier]

So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?

Chasers must hate days like tomorrow. Probably 90% of the target area is not particularly favorable for chasing.

[tacoman25]

I know very much next to nothing when forecasting tornado outbreaks but fomr what I have heard it sounds extremely scary. There could be as many tornadoes as the Superoutbreak of 1974 but I dont think there will be as many strong/Violent EF3+ tornadoes. The Superoutbreak had 35 F3's, 24 F4's and 6 F5's. Even if we had a third of these strong/violent type of tornadoes it would be catastrophic, 12 EF3's 8 EF4's and 2 EF5's. The fatality rate could be very from having just that many strong/violent tornadoes and considering the population of the US probably has well overy 100,000,000 people increase since 1974.

Yes, the population has increased a lot, but not a huge percentage in the primary areas that would be affected.

In addition, tornado warning systems/technology are light years ahead of where they were in 1974, which would certainly help save lives.

[csnavywx]

Chasers must hate days like tomorrow. Probably 90% of the target area is not particularly favorable for chasing.

Central IN seems like a good area.

[Xenia74]

So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?

I am game for a chase but I am not leaving my area....Middle Tennessee...I am where the action will be anyways..

[DBriedis]

Could be one of those "Soviet Russia" chasing days. Tornado chases you!

[VAwxman]

The surface low was gradually filling in that case. This time we will have a deepening surface low. As others have said, there are some similarities on the larger scale and the threat area is quite similar to 1974. Other than that, I'd be really hesitant to say that this will be as bad as that...you'd be wrong at least 999 times out of 1000. It's sorta one of those things that you just have to let play out.

Right. Even if the setup is close to identical synoptically, so much has to work out just perfectly for the same result as far as number of tornadoes, etc. I'd also argue that, given the detection methods and spotter networks we have now, the real total in 1974 was likely easily over 148. Someday we may well see 140 in one outbreak again, due to that alone. Interesting for discussion's sake though.

[k***]

So what are you basing your opinion on??? All the numbers are through the roof..There are two lows but the second low is forecast to be 980mb which is lower than the superstorm in 1974. I understand and respect the 74 outbreak but just looking at it from a numbers stand point there is nothing I have seen to back up your opinion. Are you just saying this cause of how high the bar was set with the 74 outbreak??

There's a lot more to tornado outbreaks than the depth of the low and numbers...lots could still go wrong.

But, since you joined yesterday to warn us and chose the screename you did, you sound unbiased...so I guess we'll just assume it will be worse since there is "nothing" to back up the opinion that this probably wont outperform the superoutbreak.

[Xenia74]

There's a lot more to tornado outbreaks than the depth of the low and numbers...lots could still go wrong.

But, since you joined yesterday to warn us and chose the screename you did, you sound unbiased...so I guess we'll just assume it will be worse since there is "nothing" to back up the opinion that this probably wont outperform the superoutbreak.

I am not saying it will or won't out preform the 74 outbreak..I know there is a lot more than just numbers but what I am saying is those numbers are alarming. What I am saying is the set up is there. Do you disagree??

[Hoosier]

Right. Even if the setup is close to identical synoptically, so much has to work out just perfectly for the same result as far as number of tornadoes, etc. I'd also argue that, given the detection methods and spotter networks we have now, the real total in 1974 was likely easily over 148. Someday we may well see 140 in one outbreak again, due to that alone. Interesting for discussion's sake though.

It's fun to try to compare outbreaks but it's difficult, especially when they are in different eras. What would be the modern equivalent to the Super Outbreak... 180 tornadoes, 100 deaths, 20 EF4/EF5? Sort of like trying to compare different eras in baseball.

[upsloper]

Xenia,

You emphatically agreed with this:

This is a reasonable assessment and is very much in concurrence with my thoughts on it for tommorrow. It is highly unlikely yet it is eerily similar.

You emphatically disagreed with this:

Synoptically it has some similarities. ... It's unlikely that April 27, 2011 will go down as the worst of the worst tornado outbreaks.

How are these statements any different in character?

Anyone that claims it is not unlikely that this will be the biggest outbreak on record or even rival 1974 is wishcasting. Even by looking at an accurate synoptic depiction of the super outbreak prior to the event, one would still have to say there is a low probability of a record outbreak.

[Xenia74]

Xenia,

You emphatically agreed with this:

You emphatically disagreed with this:

How are these statements any different in character?

Anyone that claims it is not unlikely that this will be the biggest outbreak on record or even rival 1974 is wishcasting. Even by looking at an accurate synoptic depiction of the super outbreak prior to the event, one would still have to say there is a low probability of a record outbreak.

No your missing the point...I am saying from a statistical standpoint it is unlikely but my opinion is that it will be a very large outbreak... Statistics and my opinion are two different things

[janetjanet998]

This April 26-27, 20011 outbreak may have tornadoes then the superoutbreak, but of course if you take the superoutbreak and out in todays world there would likley be closer to 225 tornadoes then 148

There was a 36 hour outbreak that actually had more then the 148 a few years ago..the date escapes me at this moment but that was out over the open plains

in this case coming up only luck will keep the death toll out of the dozens

a silver lining of all the outbreaks latley is that people may be paying more attention

[CUmet]

This April 26-27, 20011 outbreak may have tornadoes then the superoutbreak, but of course if you take the superoutbreak and out in todays world there would likley be closer to 225 tornadoes then 148

There was a 36 hour outbreak that actually had more then the 148 a few years ago..the date escapes me at this moment but that was out over the open plains

in this case coming up only luck will keep the death toll out of the dozens

a silver lining of all the outbreaks latley is that people may be paying more attention

The number of violent F4/F5 tornadoes in the Super Outbreak (as opposed to the overall number) is probably the most anomalous aspect of it to me. If you consider the major outbreaks of the past 20 years or so and compare the number of violent tornadoes, they don't even come anywhere close to the Super Outbreak.

[thewxmann]

Oh my gawd please not this discussion with the Super Outbreak.

The Super Outbreak was a once in a century-millennium event - one would need overwhelmingly compelling evidence to even bring it up in a severe discussion...

[tacoman25]

This April 26-27, 20011 outbreak may have tornadoes then the superoutbreak, but of course if you take the superoutbreak and out in todays world there would likley be closer to 225 tornadoes then 148

There was a 36 hour outbreak that actually had more then the 148 a few years ago..the date escapes me at this moment but that was out over the open plains

in this case coming up only luck will keep the death toll out of the dozens

a silver lining of all the outbreaks latley is that people may be paying more attention

I think that was late May 2008.

[Xenia74]

The number of violent F4/F5 tornadoes in the Super Outbreak (as opposed to the overall number) is probably the most anomalous aspect of it to me. If you consider the major outbreaks of the past 20 years or so and compare the number of violent tornadoes, they don't even come anywhere close to the Super Outbreak.

I have to go on record for saying this....I think this event will come very close to the number of F4/F5 tornadoes...Time will tell

[SmokeEater]

I have to go on record for saying this....I think this event will come very close to the number of F4/F5 tornadoes...Time will tell

That's awful balsy, considering not one single outbreak since then came anywhere near 6 F5's in any one event.

[Indystorm]

That's 30 EF 4 and 6 EF 5...very tough record to reach.

[Xenia74]

That's 30 EF 4 and 6 EF 5...very tough record to reach.

I totally agree..very tough...now I said "close". I also agree very balsy but that is my opinion...I will have a fun day for chasing tomorrow

[k***]

shocking...truly shocking that "xenia74" thinks this will be like the superoutbreak

[Xenia74]

shocking...truly shocking that "xenia74" thinks this will be like the superoutbreak

I don't know what your freaking problem is but just because that is my screen name and I signed in yesterday does not make me clueless...Impress me with some data...If you can that is

[am19psu]

I don't know what your freaking problem is but just because that is my screen name and I signed in yesterday does not make me clueless...Impress me with some data...If you can that is

I'd say the null hypothesis is kush's position, personally.

[k***]

I'd say the null hypothesis is kush's position, personally.

Did you see that lifted index in Texas? Superoutbreak!