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Nov 30/ Dec 1 Storm

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

And several stealth Miley sites... Mileycam, Mileynikedpics, etc.

Winds blowing at 25mph in Gardner... wall of water countdown... t minus 2 hours?

Although it seems to have a bit less of an easterly direction than I thought...

Yeah the precip has been moving more NNE than easterly over the past several hours...the trough continues to sharpen some and it's becoming really negatively tilted, this is allowing the front to hold back a bit. This is why the severe threat has been expanded northward to at least potentially include the NYC metro area and could also allow for warmer air to advect into the region so some of us may make it into the lower 60's. The ridging over eastern SNE is also holding fairly tough as well and this is helping to create a nice pressure gradient which is probably adding to the fairly strong gusts just to our SW.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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you need to address the naked part... or at least get dressed in more than slouchy socks

Any thunder today expected?

(awaiting the amazing write-up)

Not naked right now but I will be shortly when I go take a shower.

As far as thunder goes I think the potential may have increased slightly over the past few hours but we'll have to see how this works out. There really isn't a lot of elevated instability to work with as lapse rates are pretty pathetic. There is a possible period, however, where we do get a ribbon of some elevated instability to move across the region as models show K-Index values getting into the lower 30's with TT's getting into the lower 40's as well.

Despite the lack of elevated instability there is a great deal of forcing so it's certainly possible that some locations get a rumble of thunder or two. The best chances might be along the CT coastline and into SE SNE...temps here may end up spiking into the lower 60's as well.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This is pretty crazy...

I suspect it's a freak consequence of our perfect southern exposure and streets to funnel the wind into, but things are CRAZY here on the southern tip of Manhattan. While walking from end of Broadway to Broad Street along Water Street, I saw ripped awnings, a pedestrian blown over by a gust, and heard sounds you otherwise only see in Josh's hurricane videos. Easily 50+, I'd say more like 60.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

SPS from OKX

CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>076-011700-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-944 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010AT 940 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING AREASOF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. GENERAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES ANHOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THISMORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMSASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS ABOVETHE SURFACE DOWN TO THE GROUND. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50 TO 55 MILESAN HOUR RESULTING IN DOWNED TREES OR TREE LIMBS LOCALLY ANDISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...AND AWIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT INPONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGEAREAS. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted

SPS from OKX

CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>076-011700-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-944 AM EST WED DEC 1 2010AT 940 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING AREASOF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. GENERAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES ANHOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THISMORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMSASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS ABOVETHE SURFACE DOWN TO THE GROUND. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50 TO 55 MILESAN HOUR RESULTING IN DOWNED TREES OR TREE LIMBS LOCALLY ANDISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...AND AWIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT INPONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGEAREAS. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

Hey Paul,

I'm at work out in Nazareth, Pa. (along the Pa/NJ border) had some heavy rain for around 3 hours now. No thunder yet. The s/e wind has had gusts in the 40 mph range and is still comming from the same direction. The front is expected late am or shortly after noon here.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Hey Paul,

I'm at work out in Nazareth, Pa. (along the Pa/NJ border) had some heavy rain for around 3 hours now. No thunder yet. The s/e wind has had gusts in the 40 mph range and is still comming from the same direction. The front is expected late am or shortly after noon here.

Looks like that line just east of Baltimore is really beginning to intensify as it works it's way northeastward towards SE PA/NJ...wonder if it hits your area at all?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

BTW, thundersnow in the Buffalo area.

This is one sick system...some locations on the backside have seen a changeover to snow and even some periods of moderate to heavy snowfall...the temperature drops once the front passes are sick too...as much as 15F in 30 minutes. Strong WAA occurring in the warm sector with strong CAA occurring just behind the front.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

This is one sick system...some locations on the backside have seen a changeover to snow and even some periods of moderate to heavy snowfall...the temperature drops once the front passes are sick too...as much as 15F in 30 minutes. Strong WAA occurring in the warm sector with strong CAA occurring just behind the front.

yep snow sticking in altoona and state college, perhaps some mashies later tonight for pete?

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted

This is one sick system...some locations on the backside have seen a changeover to snow and even some periods of moderate to heavy snowfall...the temperature drops once the front passes are sick too...as much as 15F in 30 minutes. Strong WAA occurring in the warm sector with strong CAA occurring just behind the front.

SPC has put out a Meso disc. on the changeover

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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This is one sick system...some locations on the backside have seen a changeover to snow and even some periods of moderate to heavy snowfall...the temperature drops once the front passes are sick too...as much as 15F in 30 minutes. Strong WAA occurring in the warm sector with strong CAA occurring just behind the front.

Big time mid level frontogenesis occuring.

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