pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 nicely put, and if you wish to challange that idea, at least back it with sound scientific reasoning. I've often argued that what has happened in the past has no bearing on the future, but in the case of a forecast with months of lead time, there is not much more to go by then climo. A system with as many constantly changing variables like the atmosphere will not stay in some constant equilibrium for 90 days. It is that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I believe the term is irrational model hugging. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Mother nature has a way of doing whatever in the hell it pleases, but my thoughts about an active east coast tropical season are not alone. ok, fair enough.. I haven't read too much about any upcoming tropical predictions both from NHC or on the boards, so if that's what is being talked about, then that's fine. I just simply pay attention to the ones where they say they predict this many Tropical storms, hurricanes, and how many they think will be major.. and that's about it.. Is there any official forecasts from NHC or the likes that talk about what they are thinking in terms of where they think the highest density of storm tracks will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I believe the term is irrational model hugging. You love to play that climo card all the time, sooner or later, your going to get burned. The models were showing a nearly perfect setup for a short while, and then backed off, just as I and a few others did shortly after. I clearly remember you getting attacked by a majority of the posters the day earthlight made his "mother of god" post. You were right that time, but for the wrong reason. Your 40's and rain turned into less than 0.25" total QPF. Your argument, was that even in that "perfect setup" it wasn't going to stick in the city" I still think you would have been dead wrong had it closed off south of LI as previously modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 perhaps we should pick up this discussion in the April running obs and discussion thread or some new thread.. When we look back and see a severe weather thread with 10-15 pages, someone might think we had a huge tornado outbreak on this date... Unfortunately it was a 10 page thread where nothing ended up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 wasnt last summer a -NAO summer/late spring? We torched in the sun everyday and got little rain... once we head into may it has much less to do with our temps and and storminess..If anything the experts are predicting more landfalls in the CONUS..A +NAO is correlated into more landfalls, so i doubt a -NAO lasts into july anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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