LocoAko Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I think most people expected nothing. Totally different pattern than last year. It is only mid-April............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 It is only mid-April............ Im just glad we made it into the 70....this mornings weather was awful.....cold drizzel/fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Im just glad we made it into the 70....this mornings weather was awful.....cold drizzel/fog. That was pretty much all day here save for a few semi-decent hours this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 It is only mid-April............ The April pattern is totally different which is what I was mostly referring too but no doubt the spring setup willl be different in general especially coming off the strong nina vs. nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 That was pretty much all day here save for a few semi-decent hours this afternoon. That sucks....but i doubt it bothers you much......down to 57 now......Looks like after thursday is back to cool weather and the heat back on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 That sucks....but i doubt it bothers you much......down to 57 now......Looks like after thursday is back to cool weather and the heat back on... 52.3/51 now, mild night after an average day dominated by low clouds/fog. Doubt we drop too much until the cold front arrives. I don't really mind the cool springtime weather, although I'd like some sunny days instead of that endless dreariness we've been having since early April. Tomorrow looks like a winner with highs in the 50s, low humidity as the NW wind downslopes us, and then a nice crisp night dropping into the 30s. Looks like warm 850s arrive by Sunday but will the wind direction cooperate? 18z GFS shows us within the 10C contour for most of next week, but with a strong southerly flow ahead of the cutter, and with some garbage clouds/showers limiting temperatures. We'll see if the torch finally gets in with the mid-levels being so far above average, but I would guess the coast continues to struggle realizing a true spring. The long range looks blockier with more of a +PNA/-NAO so I won't bet on any 2010-esque heat waves just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 52.3/51 now, mild night after an average day dominated by low clouds/fog. Doubt we drop too much until the cold front arrives. I don't really mind the cool springtime weather, although I'd like some sunny days instead of that endless dreariness we've been having since early April. Tomorrow looks like a winner with highs in the 50s, low humidity as the NW wind downslopes us, and then a nice crisp night dropping into the 30s. Looks like warm 850s arrive by Sunday but will the wind direction cooperate? 18z GFS shows us within the 10C contour for most of next week, but with a strong southerly flow ahead of the cutter, and with some garbage clouds/showers limiting temperatures. We'll see if the torch finally gets in with the mid-levels being so far above average, but I would guess the coast continues to struggle realizing a true spring. The long range looks blockier with more of a +PNA/-NAO so I won't bet on any 2010-esque heat waves just yet. LMAO you guys are ridiculous. Next week will be late April. We are like a week or a week and a half away from being significantly leafed out here in the city (almost every single tree has at least leaves or small buds). After Saturday it will be in the 60s/70s+ with few exceptions. A negative NAO in May, uhh, who cares? We don't live in northern New England. The avg high in NYC is in the mid/upper 60s by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 LMAO you guys are ridiculous. Next week will be late April. We are like a week or a week and a half away from being significantly leafed out here in the city (almost every single tree has at least leaves or small buds). After Saturday it will be in the 60s/70s+ with few exceptions. A negative NAO in May, uhh, who cares? We don't live in northern New England. The avg high in NYC is in the mid/upper 60s by the end of the month. Why does it matter whether it's late April? The jet stream and blocking features like the PNA and NAO still have an effect on our pattern, albeit reduced by the middle of the warm season. Everything is relative to average, so an emergence of a -NAO/+PNA as I'm discussing would still make the pattern cool, just that it's by late April standards now and not late January. It's not as if we can't see chilly weather at this point: I had a high of 44F on May 14, 2010 during the warmest spring on record, my town had accumulating snow on April 24, 1967, and Manhattan saw flurries on May 10, 1977 when a late-season Nor'easter passed to our east, with accumulating snow falling in Northern Westchester/Putnam. All of these occurrences were caused by a strong -NAO, so it's still relevant even at this stage of the game. I think NYC metro still sees some days in the 40s/50s after this Saturday; as I've said before, it's not unusual to have chilly weather at this point when you have a blocking regime...it's not July. The cooler spots like Northern Westchester and Eastern LI will doubtlessly have highs in the 50s after the front passes at the end of next week, ushering in a pattern that could feature some significant blocking. 0z GFS shows some chilly days in late April/early May with 850s near 0C and rain showers affecting the area. Almost every single run of the GFS I've seen in the last three days has brought a cold Canadian airmass into the area around 5/1 or 5/2, so there could be some frosts for the extreme NW suburbs and some days where we're stuck in the 40s with showers. Happy spring! To be honest, dude, I'm not even rooting for cold that much anymore; I have a big vegetable garden this season with lots of warm-weather crops like tomatoes and eggplant. I want sunny weather so I have lots of fresh vegetables to eat this summer, but I'm not going to lie about what I see in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Why does it matter whether it's late April? The jet stream and blocking features like the PNA and NAO still have an effect on our pattern, albeit reduced by the middle of the warm season. Everything is relative to average, so an emergence of a -NAO/+PNA as I'm discussing would still make the pattern cool, just that it's by late April standards now and not late January. It's not as if we can't see chilly weather at this point: I had a high of 44F on May 14, 2010 during the warmest spring on record, my town had accumulating snow on April 24, 1967, and Manhattan saw flurries on May 10, 1977 when a late-season Nor'easter passed to our east, with accumulating snow falling in Northern Westchester/Putnam. All of these occurrences were caused by a strong -NAO, so it's still relevant even at this stage of the game. I think NYC metro still sees some days in the 40s/50s after this Saturday; as I've said before, it's not unusual to have chilly weather at this point when you have a blocking regime...it's not July. The cooler spots like Northern Westchester and Eastern LI will doubtlessly have highs in the 50s after the front passes at the end of next week, ushering in a pattern that could feature some significant blocking. 0z GFS shows some chilly days in late April/early May with 850s near 0C and rain showers affecting the area. Almost every single run of the GFS I've seen in the last three days has brought a cold Canadian airmass into the area around 5/1 or 5/2, so there could be some frosts for the extreme NW suburbs and some days where we're stuck in the 40s with showers. Happy spring! To be honest, dude, I'm not even rooting for cold that much anymore; I have a big vegetable garden this season with lots of warm-weather crops like tomatoes and eggplant. I want sunny weather so I have lots of fresh vegetables to eat this summer, but I'm not going to lie about what I see in the pattern. How many times have we had a strong -NAO in early May and things like -25 to -30 max departures, snow, etc have not occurred? Also, the GFS out 260+ hours isn't exactly a hallmark of accuracy. Just sayin'.. Avg daytime high in NYC hits 70 on May 12!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 How many times have we had a strong -NAO in early May and things like -25 to -30 max departures, snow, etc have not occurred? Also, the GFS out 260+ hours isn't exactly a hallmark of accuracy. Just sayin'.. Avg daytime high in NYC hits 70 on May 12!! Much more concerning to me is the AO taking a dive. That can often be the kiss of death to any sustained positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Much more concerning to me is the AO taking a dive. That can often be the kiss of death to any sustained positive departures. We are looking at a crappy spring and one thing I will be worried about I hope it better not snow when we get into May like it did in 1977 with a -NAO/-AO and + PNA because I would scream if it does. Snow should happen in the winter months not the spring. I want warmth and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Much more concerning to me is the AO taking a dive. That can often be the kiss of death to any sustained positive departures. By the time May hits we don't need positive departures. I will take 68-70 for that time of year without complaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 By the time May hits we don't need positive departures. I will take 68-70 for that time of year without complaint. I will happy as we don't see cold noreasters with highs in the 40's and even snow which happen because the weather could be strange with combine coming out of strong La Nina and being in this crappy -NAO/-AO and +PNA pattern. I would take 60's for highs with sunshine with even at upper 50's as the coolest days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 How many times have we had a strong -NAO in early May and things like -25 to -30 max departures, snow, etc have not occurred? Also, the GFS out 260+ hours isn't exactly a hallmark of accuracy. Just sayin'.. Avg daytime high in NYC hits 70 on May 12!! I don't think he is saying bone chilling, but if ur expecting 70 and sun you better go back to dc next week.. We have had plenty of mays that have been cool and wet. Warm weather will come but the pattern the next few weeks is not consitantly avg warm. We will have many bumps in the rd. You act as if a avg temp is gospel. You seem too miss the mid atlantic weather alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 A side note, does anyone remember last year's 4/20? the infamous gulf oil explosion. Can't imagine it was already a year ago. Time flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I don't think he is saying bone chilling, but if ur expecting 70 and sun you better go back to dc next week.. We have had plenty of mays that have been cool and wet. Warm weather will come but the pattern the next few weeks is not consitantly avg warm. We will have many bumps in the rd. You act as if a avg temp is gospel. You seem too miss the mid atlantic weather alot Yeah I'm not saying that May 10, 1977 is an analog obviously for this coming May....I'm just saying that the up-and-down temperatures look to continue with perhaps a move towards a bit cooler than what we've seen so far this April. A diving NAO/AO in conjunction with a rising PNA spells troughing in the East. I'm betting on below average temperatures Friday-Sunday this weekend, a significant warm-up towards the middle of next week with temperatures getting into the 70s and possibly 80s, and then a probable cold spell from April 29-May 5 approximately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I don't think he is saying bone chilling, but if ur expecting 70 and sun you better go back to dc next week.. We have had plenty of mays that have been cool and wet. Warm weather will come but the pattern the next few weeks is not consitantly avg warm. We will have many bumps in the rd. You act as if a avg temp is gospel. You seem too miss the mid atlantic weather alot Uh, most of the models have us well into the 70s next week. Sorry if that disappoints you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 but if ur expecting 70 and sun you better go back to dc next week.. Why would I go there when I could just stay here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 For the record, the 06z GFS had us into the mid 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday. It rains on Thursday but we're back into the upper 60's to 70's by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 if we get a -nao combined with the la nina like we did last summer, we will roast last spring was warm because it was still an el nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Looks much cooler near the coast with mean SSW flow, another week in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 if we get a -nao combined with the la nina like we did last summer, we will roast last spring was warm because it was still an el nino look what a -NAO did for us in july 99, also a second year nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 look what a -NAO did for us in july 99, also a second year nina Take a look at where high pressure was located. Models are indicating that the mean high position will be closer to Bermuda, with ridges over the Western US and Western Atlantic and a trough in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Take a look at where high pressure was located. Models are indicating that the mean high position will be closer to Bermuda, with ridges over the Western US and Western Atlantic and a trough in between. what does the pattern next week have to do with july? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 what does the pattern next week have to do with july? My bad, thought this discussion was with regards to April, but in any event, I'm failing to see how this pattern is going to change much between now and then. Most of the analogs for this summer feature strong high pressure over the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 what does the pattern next week have to do with july? That's not a high pressure anyway, that's the highest geopotential heights at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 in any event, I'm failing to see how this pattern is going to change much between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Laugh all you want, it's not going to change in the forceable future. Indications are for a return to a negative NAO/ Positive AO blocking regime, and you seem to have missed the most important point of my previous post, "most of the analogs for the upcoming summer feature strong sprawling ridging over the western Atlantic." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Laugh all you want, it's not going to change in the forceable future. Indications are for a return to a negative NAO/ Positive AO blocking regime, and you seem to have missed the most important point of my previous post, "most of the analogs for the upcoming summer feature strong sprawling ridging over the western Atlantic." which analogs? and why are they analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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