hudsonvalley21 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 SPC now has a 2% Tor. risk for the area. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS EXCEEDING 100-150 M AT 500 MB WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO AS OF 16Z WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO FAR SRN QUEBEC BY 21/00Z WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE HUDSON AND DE RIVER VALLEYS BY THIS TIME. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NY/PA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...EXPECT AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG WLY WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. ...OK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Interesting, SPC shrunk back the eastward extend of the slight risk area again. With steep mid-level lapse rates I think more than a 5% hail risk would have been warranted. There were numerous reports of small hail with the line that moved through New England eariler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Interesting, SPC shrunk back the eastward extend of the slight risk area again. With steep mid-level lapse rates I think more than a 5% hail risk would have been warranted. There were numerous reports of small hail with the line that moved through New England eariler. Yeah, but the SPC Hail outlook isn't for small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yeah, but the SPC Hail outlook isn't for small hail. I do realize that, but mid-level laps rates are steeper down this way and will aid in producing stronger updrafts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yeah, but the SPC Hail outlook isn't for small hail. This. There isn't much support for severe hail stones. The clearing line is into Central Middlesex county now and continuing to erode north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Atlantic City is 81 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 This. There isn't much support for severe hail stones. The clearing line is into Central Middlesex county now and continuing to erode north. yea, thank goodness. I can't take this misery any more... 48 ugly degrees here.. clouds still very thick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 yea, thank goodness. I can't take this misery any more... 48 ugly degrees here.. clouds still very thick Its getting much brighter here. When the sun comes out ill crack a celebratory can of blue moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Its getting much brighter here. When the sun comes out ill crack a celebratory can of blue moon. sounds nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Just had a wind shift to the s-sw. Let's see how temps respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Light NW wind at 2mph here in Colts Neck, Monmouth. Sun broke out at 1230, now mostly clear. Temp jumped rapidly from 48 to 62.0 right now. The race is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Clouds cleared out in a matter of minutes here. It already is starting to feel warmer out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Its getting much brighter here. When the sun comes out ill crack a celebratory can Bottle of blue moon. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Line of showers now beginning to organize in eastern PA. Instability is starting to grow in southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 i think that big clear spot over eastern NJ has made it as far north as it's going to.. I'll have to wait for those breaks in eastern PA to come this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 83 at ACY... 49 here! booooo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Ton of stuff going on right now...but everybody should get warmer shortly. Cool loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=LongIsland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Sun is out here....finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 i think that big clear spot over eastern NJ has made it as far north as it's going to.. I'll have to wait for those breaks in eastern PA to come this way. It's still eroding...the only stuff left back over Central-Eastern PA is high cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Ton of stuff going on right now...but everybody should get warmer shortly. Cool loop http://climate.cod.e...gion=LongIsland yea, i was watching that cool line of thicker clouds from just north of boston all the way into the delmarva... it actually just passed through my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Convection now west of State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Torching here, kind of. Up to 68.8 with a light NWLY wind here in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Wind shifted to sw now... temp. 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Can tell WF is basically sitting overhead. Winds have been light and variable, generally NWLY. The stronger SWLY winds are waiting in the wings over SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 63 and partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The 'storms' in PA are dying big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 sky is brightening a bit here.. up to 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 00z spc wrf not enthused with this event at all, it has practically nothing..Dynamics may be solid but we need more juice imo i stand by this. radar looks exactly like the 00z spc wrf from last night and it has everything dying out. Anything severe the pops will be isolated if the dynamics can find some moisture to work with..There is alot of forcing with the front but its moistured starved and the PW isnt great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 NJ Reporting Stations: 12N - 57 ACY - 84 BLM - 57 CDW - 54 EWR - 63 FWN - 55 MIV - 79 MMU - 57 NEL - 79 SMQ - 61 TEB - 54 TTN - 73 VAY - 79 WRI - 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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